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Flat Bear

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  1. Hello Pop Why not? A lot of it is about confidence and being able to "invest" in what you are happy with. How would you feel if your BP shares fell 20% this month? which I think is quite possible. Hopfully you would be OK with this as you were taking a longer term view and maybe were in a position to buy more at the lower price. I do not think there are any bad shares and we all have our own preferances. I actually think that BP is a good stock and it is only the price of the shares I would be looking at but that is only a personal opinion. Maybe m&S are really good shares I have not really looked at the company and have been ignoring the sector, but maybe lots of others have done the same and it may perform really really well. I think it is important that you make your own judgment on what to invest in and which sectors. The point I have been making about having a liquid asset like cash means you are able to take advantage of coming opportunities that are bound to happen over the coming months. When we see the likely deleveraging and the liquidity starts to dry up, this is where I think the opportunities will occur. Please note: this is just my opinion and anything can happen and probably will.
  2. A number of different sizes I will give you $ as everything priced in USD Exchange rates vary all the time but probably around $1.38 about now and $1.36 on last purchase although can move before payment. Main one was $3.60 to $5.15 and $5.56 now) The average price increase on all sizes/types is actually closer to 49% Cost and problems with shipping is also a very big factor. It is difficult to give exact on any particular shipment but it is around a 1000% rise over the last 18 months. I know we are not the only industry seeing these increases in both manufacturing costs and shipping costs as I have been told of 100% plus increases on numerous products and everyone is affected by the high shipping costs. Prices are starting to rise even further and faster and supply chains are breaking down completely. We are not just entering a high inflation period like the 1970s this is much different and I have no idea what is going to happen It is now only time before there are real shortages in the UK and what is available at much higher prices. We are seeing container inflation at an alarming rate unlike the gentle container deflation we have been subject to for the past 30 plus years. The consumer is no longer king. It would take 20 to 30 years for the UK to be able to resource these products from the west, it simply can not happen quickly.
  3. Thank you COUNT It is only my own opinion that the current stock market along with every other asset is currently overvalued including houses. Anyone says they can give you exact timing on bull and bear movements should be regarded as suspect but “it feels” imminent That is not to say there is not a particular stock, or house that you may believe is at a fair price or even at a bargain price. If this is the case then buy, why not? I would not advise buying with leveraged money, but there cannot be a downside to buying. If the price of your shares/house go up you should be quite happy and if the value of your shares goes down you will be even happier, much, much, happier as you are now in a position to buy more shares or another house at an even better bargain price. It’s a win win, but only if you have enough cash reserve to capitalise on the buying opportunity. Example BHP A blue chip stable mining stock which is a relatively steady non-volatile stock 2nd JULY 2019 £16.94 a share 12th MARCH 2020 £8.32 a share (50% Fall) 10th MAY 2021 £22.24 a share (270% Rise) TODAY £20.71 a share (10% Fall) So, when was it good value or worth buying? The price is irrelevant at any given point it would be your own personal opinion as to what you believe that share was worth at any given time. Imagine how much extra movement with a more volatile stock? Fundamentally there was little change for the long-term outlook for this share/company so if you were entering the market today and thought the shares were fair or at a bargain at say £20.00 a share you would buy, some shares when the price got to this level. If the shares go down to say £18.00 you would buy more as you would have a bargain and when they fell again to £16 more all the way down to say £10. The shares eventually end up at say £8.50 (nobody ever manages to buy at the very bottom), but you are very happy because you have bought loads of shares at below £20.00 which is the value you have set for this share, and you feel good. The value of you shares dealing on your screen is showing a whooping 40% loss but it does not matter as in your mind the value is higher. If you have chosen a good stock (as Buffett would say a “wonderful” company stock) you would make money and at a much better return than 0% with your money sitting in the bank. The biggest and best returns will be when the shares you bought were valued the lowest, but you would not know this at the time. You may decide that between £20 to £35 the shares were worth holding but above this you would sell similar to the buying amounts. You will need to be able to believe in your own judgment and not panic when the markets change otherwise you would become a nervous wreck. These are my own thoughts, and I am really telling myself as much as you on this but without any liquid cash the bargain prices can never be realized. Does this make sense?
  4. Try to keep it simple. These are my own thoughts on value. I think we all have different ideas on what any particular thing is worth. Money. What is it? something generally accepted as a medium of exchange, a measure of value, or a means of payment Value of a money, for any individual, can only be put into how much effort, normally measured in time that individual has to give to get a unit of this money So pound sterling and most global currencies can be defined as money. Gold? Other commodities. Not really in the true sense as the value is not commonly know. Government bonds and other financial packages. No, but there will be some bankers who have been brainwashed into thinking so. Most bankers do not understand what money is and this is where the problems begin. The practice of creating some CDOs was the cause of the last financial crash. Houses or property. I suppose yes these could be seen as money. It is the only real asset many people have that tends not to depreciate. A pint of stella 0.00002 average house prices. Sounds about right to me. Not very practical as a medium of exchange but OK as a store of Value maybe. If I purchase a house for £500,000 (cash outright) and a year later some estate agent tells me the house would sell for £250,000 has the value of the house fallen? No, of course not as it is the same house and unless something has changed to the property itself it is worth exactly the same, 1 X House. It could well be possible that the value of money has doubled, this would make sense, or more likely that the market does not value the house as much as I do. So there is no problem as I would not have bought it unless I thought the price is fair. The problems come when the purchase of the house was leveraged, and this is a totally different matter.
  5. Just had my updated washer prices in. The increase is 47% I need to add to this the approx. extra cost of a container of circa $10,000 This puts my final cost up around 59% We have increased prices in August by 15% and will find it "uncomfortable" to raise prices again by so much so soon after the last increase. Our prices were lower in 2018 than they were in 2002. So, we had deflation in our sector for 16 years. We had a small increase of around 8% in 2018 and have not increased again until August. The main reason, as it is with most increases at the moment, is China. Raw materials and production cost are going up and are continuing to go up. There is no end in sight. So, my biggest increases are in actual products around 60% year on year, followed by raw materials around 50% and then labour 18% packaging etc 33% power (we use a lot of it) 0% we are on fixed rate coming off 2022 couriers just 3% and various others. Because of the lack of supply, we are under high pressure. Price aside, we just do not have the product to supply and as our competitors run out it is causing more pressure. When will it end?
  6. He is behind the curve or too far in front, whichever way you look at it. Timing is everything as others have noted Most people already know this he is not saying anything we do not all know already. I have been in mining stocks and commodity producers for a while BUT am now in cash, see my other posts. "True" inflation is running at a very minimum of 20% a year. The likely 6% the government will measure the CPI figure at the end of this year will be a joke. Sterling will be losing value along with all the other major fiat currencies. What can you measure its value against? You cannot measure it against Gold, bitcoin, etc as these are all in asset bubbles of their own. You cannot really measure it against oil or any one particular item including food which have their own dynamics. Property is probably the best single way of measuring currency devaluation, but again it is in a bubble. "Cost of living" which was used over and over again in the 70s will make a comeback and as this inflation spreads through the sectors wage inflation will take hold where we will see the start of food inflation in a big way. So why am I in cash? The truth is my business is into stock as prices have and are skyrocketing but my personal wealth, which is not a massive amount, has been liquidated. I am convinced there will be a collapse in all assets. All the more liquid leveraged assets will fall, and I think quite quickly. These include stocks and shares, commodities all types, crypto and other speculative currencies, other such assets. Leveraged assets, which are more difficult to sell off quickly, especially those that have a real value to people will take longer to be affected, such as houses. The commercial property market would come under pressure sooner. Timing. Although stocks and shares will collapse, they still in reality are worth the same as before they collapsed so this is the buying opportunity for those with ready unleveraged cash. It will be mainly relatively rich people who I would consider astute. Check out the actual cash holding and portfolios of Buffett and the other big investors. The world really is unfair.
  7. I suppose we only think of ourselves in these scenarios. They both actually think that the Fed (BOE) do not want people to hold too much cash? They want people to spend and invest it. I do not really understand why? I understand Buffett has more than 50% of his wealth in cash, although he doesn’t like to tell people about it. None of us could really see what it will be like in practice for day to day living. How would business carry on? What about services, law and order? It could all take a sinister turn and life could become hell in many different ways. There are always new events that we have no idea about until they happen. Unknown unknowns Whatever it is, we are coming to the end of this particular episode in history. I had realised that for some time but had not thought about all the consequences.
  8. I have been discussing investments and current investment strategies with a couple of friends who are in financials. Both around my age early 60s with a lot of experience. The way they see it. (some slight disagreement) We are in the biggest asset bubble in history. This includes all asset classes you can think of. Inflation is much higher than reported. Official CPI will be over 6% in December. Wages and living costs will continue to rise in the US and here. The Fed will start tapering this month and it will be more severe than most analysts had predicted. September/October is when the S*** hits the fan. There will be a lot of repo's of houses and other problems with debts in the states as people come off furlough, I am not sure if this affects us here? We could see some of the biggest corrections in history. FTSE 100 well below 6000, Gold below $1500 Bitcoin below $20000 (still seems very high?) All assets will see deflation on a scale not seen in our lifetimes. No asset class will be safe. These were not predictions but asking me what I would do in such a scenario. This correction could happen very fast. "A bull walks up the stairs, but a bear jumps out the window"? Which I think means bull markets are generally long and protracted whereas bear markets are very sharp. I don’t know if this is true. The only asset class that could stagnate for a while would be UK property. They go along with the same assumption as many on these threads that the Fed (and BOE) will be very reluctant to put up interest rates. It was thought a 0.25% rate hike in the first quarter of 2022 (FED) With each bad debt the money disappears and "wealth" along with it. We are at the height of exuberance and at the very last run of a bull market. What can anyone do to protect their wealth? They are both to varying degrees holding a lot of cash waiting for the inevitable buying opportunity. There was differences of opinions on the timing of the correction, the severity and which asset classes might be better to hold, but overall all very depressing.
  9. Silly me I can see you are from Ireland (probably Eire?) Yes, you have had it quite bad, and it is likely to get much worse sorry to say. I have to confess to not helping the situation as I made a decision to no longer "export" to Northern Ireland or to Southern Ireland. It is just not worth the hassle and it maybe we are abandoning you, but it must be remembered that there was a majority who voted to remain in the EU in NI in the referendum. On a bright note, I know of several people, all relatively well off, who are moving over to Southern Ireland and buying up larger farms and estates. They say it is a beautiful country with plenty of space. Although the whole economy is very tiny for someone with enough money there can be a great life. Apparently land prices are increasing rapidly. General supplies and materials are scarce and twice the prices we see in England. It will no longer be a place for the poor to live. I have supplied individuals who arrange the transportation themselves and it seems money is no object.
  10. Although I feel sorry for you and feel your anger and disappointment try and keep it together. Your life is probably not as bad as you think. Your posts are quite garbled, and I can't actually see where or which country you are living in? I have worked out it is somewhere in the EEC region. I understand there is much strife with major riots together with economic and political woes throughout the whole region now. Do not believe everything in the media life in the UK is not a bed of roses. We too have been affected by Covid, maybe not to the extent you have been, and we are now seeing an end to it. Because thousands are risking their lives to get from France to the UK does not mean it really is a land of milk and honey. I would agree it is a much better place to live now and you can see why people want to live here but to risk your life? France must be a s**th*l* You must realize that the people of the UK could not stay within your union just to keep you happy we needed to think about our own wellbeing and happiness. Try to understand Good luck to you wherever you are.
  11. true, but it only needs to be less chaotic than the places they are coming from Yes What we think is a poor standard of living would be a very good standard for many immigrants from poorer and from oppressive regimes. A good friend of mine who use to work for me has become an "illegal" He was a good employee and, in my opinion, a very nice chap. He has been in the UK coming up to 20 years now as a sizable proportion of illegals did, maybe a few million people? who came over as a "students". There have only been 2 occasions where he has approached me for "a loan", on both occasions I told him I was unable to lend him money as it would put too much pressure on him, but I could give him some as a thank you for work he had done previously for me. I have talked to him at length about his options and why he does not just return to Tanzania, he replied that when you see a friend of yours having their head crushed with a large stone over and over until the brains splatter out just because someone thought he had stolen their mobile phone and then just walking off as nothing had happened with no recourse in any way you sort of know you are in the wrong country. This is not that big a deal in many countries throughout the world. I wonder how he gets on and manages to survive but apparently there is a massive underground community of these people. When they are young and fit men, they can always find work although they are exploited in every way, I am more concerned for the more vulnerable among them where many of the females are forced into prostitution. There are of course a very large number who turn to crime where they don’t ask for ID and your status for legally working in the UK is unimportant to drug dealers and pimps alike. This really is a very big problem in this country with many people living lives of hell. When Boris said we should have an amnesty for everyone that had lived here for 5 years or more I actually welcomed it because of these problems. Although it is difficult to imagine 70 million people in Calais trying to cross the channel it is not as stupid as it sounds. There is probably in reality around 500 million people who want to move to this country and around 100 million who are actually making preparations or on route at this time. There is less than 1000 people a day (I think they have counted around 850) crossing the channel and I would suggest maybe the same number maybe slightly more from all other routes with very little at this time coming in on visas so the maximum number of illegal immigrants at this time would not be more than 2000 a day and around half a million a year in reality. There would be a proportion who would be called "undesirable elements" with some in this group who will be responsible for future terrorist attacks. Above all this we will have the official immigration which continues to be around 600,000 per annum. So, although we might not see 70 million in one year there is a possibility if things break down further of 7 million per annum over 10 years. And yes, it does not matter if we think living standards are terrible, they will still come because they are told it is much better than what they have now and this will probably be true.
  12. Thank you Twenty Something I note you have been a member since 2005 so it is probably Forty Something now I agree with you and do not think you are doing, or have done, the wrong thing at all. The only other real option you had was to rent which is not a very good option at this time in this country. As you say slowly but surely your mortgage will deflate nominally and with inflation growing it will get eroded in real terms as well. You also have the certainty and security that owning a property brings. Purely as an "investment", as some people still see houses, I do not see it as the best option. If, I am not by the way, I was a BTL landlord with a larger portfolio I would be looking to off load them all as quickly as I could. There are a few reasons, with interest rate rises albeit relatively small to begin with on the horizon, with the new tax regulations and other new regulations government is apply and the likely tax on wealth as opposed to earnings we are likely to see over the next decade there is very little upside for owning property purely as an investment. I have personally noticed more sales online from BTLers at this time, although I do not look very often. I do not see this being a reason for prices to fall at all but just an observation.
  13. Revived a very old thread I started in 2007 I did not get any replies at the time. The thing I got totally wrong was the low interest rate policy that took mortgage interest down to well below 7% for safer loans and then after the later financial crash around 4/5 years after this post the introduction of ZIRP which we are still seeing today that has seen mortgage rates along the very floor at below 1%. I had thought finance would dry up where it was completely the opposite. These policies kept upward pressure on the "demand" whilst the need grew even more than I had thought at the time. Which at the time I did not think possible as until the 2007-8 financial crash QE had not been thought as a viable option. Although something similar to the term had been thought up aroud 1995 it was only really used in the early 2000s in Japan to help combate deflation. (or so they thought) QE was used with great care at first but as there seemed to be no side effects or consequences it was used more and more until we have the carefree attitude of raising more than 30% of the existing money in existance within a single year. The experiment of QE is still not over and although it now looks as if the creation of this extra money through this means actually causes deflation and not the inflation which was first thought there are long term very serious effects we are only just starting to see now, some 14 years from the very start. It seems everyone is re-looking at the actual value of the fiat currency they are holding in their hand or in their accounts. "I promise to pay the bearer, on demand, the sum of **twenty pounds" **insert other denomination People are starting to question what this actually means and why they should have faith in its perceived value. This is not just confined to sterling but all the other fiat currencies throughout the western world. Sometimes events and consequences take a very long time to happen and sometimes they happen very very quickly. Nothing seems to happen exactly the same again and again in history but it does seem that there is definately a theme.
  14. "I am pointing out that increased capacity leads to increased demand." I have never seen such logic? before. Now think very carefully about it please. "Decreased capacity leads to decreased demand." which also has to be true if the first premise is correct. The logic is if we cut the capacity of the M25 down to a single lane then demand would fall as a response. That is the logical conclusion. So why doesn't the government close 3 lanes of the M25 permanently? It would solve all the congestion problems overnight. I think you have got very mixed up somewhere down the line Added We could also use your logic for housing. There is high demand for housing at this time, yes? Why dont we just knock down 50% of all houses this will decrease capacity and thus decrease demand for houses. Why had you not thought of this before? I think you are crazy by the way.
  15. You are much too sensible and logical. You will have to change your name to Sane.
  16. The Rojos on one side of the town and the Baxters on the other, and me right in the middle. A man (or women☺️) could make a lot of money working for both of them
  17. "!Whilst inflation is increasing, I'm still doubtful that IRs will rise." Agreed, they are and will be deflating the debt away as many posters on here have cottoned on to. "The end of furlough is nearly upon us and I do expect a rise in unemployment". This is where I disagree. The scam of the furlough scheme will be seen for what it is, along with the government free loans doing the rounds. I have been, and are still, being approached to get my free covid money from the government. A whole new industry has built up to promote it. The official 1 to 2 million people on furlough is mainly made up of those who do not want to return to work or those that are swinging the lead. There will be very little or no affect on unemployment when it ends. Unfortunately, the end of furlough will not help the shortage of labour throughout the country and wages will have to increase to entice a workforce no longer willing to work for low wages back, which in turn creates more inflation and the cycle begines. The overall difference is that while you see stagflation, which would be the result of your analysis, I see more of a inflationary boom. This boom will not help the average guy but will help those with existing hard assets, generally the richer in society. There are some on these threads that have chosen Crypo currency for there asset of choice, whilst others choose gold or other precious metals. There are some like myself who think the best growth will be in selective stocks and shares. Then you get those who truely believe bricks and mortar is the best and only real asset to beat inflation. There is one thing we all have in common and that is cash in all its forms or currency will devalue and is not worth holding. Faith in all fiat money is collapsing. With any of these asset classes in the mid to longer term, sustainability of the value of the held asset is vital. Eventually interest rates will rise. Although central banks will be keeping them to the absolute minimum they can, even a relatively small increase in rates will have a large affect on very highly leveraged assets such as property. This is why I am not so bullish about the property market over the next 5 to 10 years, although I know others who think otherwise.
  18. What?? I think you will find there are a number of teenage single mums with a couple of kids who are doing OK. Although many do feel they are entitled to a 3 bedroomed flat not a 2 bedroomed. I note you have a number of small businesses? A single small business takes over 100% of a proprietors (or director/owner if ltd) time working all the hours possible without holidays. Have you started a number of smaller businesses to get hold of all the furlough and loan money and/or pay less tax?
  19. You couldn't make this stuff up could you. 🙄 But only 10% is built on! There's plenty of room! OMG We were having a discussion about the size of dwellings and it was agreed that properties (including gardens) need to be 10 to 12 times larger in area and that nothing over 3 stories should be build for a multitude of reasons. It was agreed that we would need around 30% extra over of this extra housing space for service buildings and new warehousing. It was also pointed out there needs to be a substantial increase in park areas in and around towns and cities and it was also pointed out the we just do not have enough woodland or common land which would run into 1000s and 1000s of extra sq. miles. It was also mentioned that we need a substantial increase in good quality farmland, would it be possible to demolish a number of smaller villages and hamlets to create the extra room for agriculture and force people to live in the cities? It was also noted there would need to be a very large proportion of land for the new roads that will be needed. It was also pointed out a very very large proportion of the land, around the coastal areas mainly and just off shore, must be set aside for wind turbines to create some of the energy we need. It was also pointed out there just isn’t enough space for leisure activities. There are an increasing number of people who want to play golf for example. It was also pointed out there are a lot of homes and buildings on white land (flood plains) and this is a very big problem as there are over a million buildings. These will have to be demolished (this should have been done already) and areas put back to their original purpose. There were several other needs pointed out for large areas of land. It was concluded there just was not enough room as just the extra space for buildings would cover over 120% of the country. Adding all the extra stuff took it to beyond 700% (over 2000% if everything considered) of the country. That would mean the country would need to be 7x to 20x bigger to accommodate existing populus. Either a large number of houses need to be knocked down or they will have to make some more land. It was suggested we could get rid of all the supermarkets and shops but then someone mentioned where could people get their food? This problem was solved when someone said everyone could purchase online and we don’t really need shops. People could be shown how to cut their own hair and how to cook food so restaurants would not be needed, so this would free up some space. But would it be enough? It was also noted that there has been a number of residents in certain areas of the country who would like to see travel from other areas banned. If this was the case everyone could be made to stay in a relatively small region of the country and in an emergency could get a visa from the government to get temporary travel documents. This would mean that roads would not be needed. Schools take up a lot of space. They are not needed as pupils could WFH. All children today tend to communicate by mobile texting so it wouldn’t affect their social lives, they could even continue to bully each other apparently. This would free up a lot of space for say new immigration centres. Everyone could (would be forced to) WFH. This would free up all the office space and all the subsidiary infrastructure needed for it. We could in theory EVEN double the population and put everyone in a gentle comma wiring up their brainwaves to a computer generated world where everything is perfect and everyone has their place. They would live their whole lives without ever knowing and there would be a perfectly controlled environment whilst everyone gets all the mental stimulation they need to “live and experience” a fulfilling life. What’s not to like? OR We can stay in the real world, admit we have an overpopulation problem and fight for the resources that are left on the planet as humans have done since the beginning of time. The current population is unsustainable and at some time in the next 100 years something will give. There are numerous theories on this, the popular one was that it will be a pandemic but I think Covid has shown this is not likely as a relatively harmless virus has caused so much disruption. War, Famine, Meteor, or the concept of the planet itself changing, getting very warm or cold or in other ways changing the conditions for human life, there are others, take your pick
  20. Point taken But why are "employers" still keeping employees on furlough when they have to pay albeit a small proportion? It would not be in their interest, would it? Unless the employee/employer relationship was more than just that, such as a close freind or family member or themselves as pointed out by reddog. There could also be a degree of inertia. I know of one who is still on furlough who worked for a roofing customer of mine. The roofer is snowed under and can not find enough workers. He wants to get ride of this guy on furlough and doesnt mind paying 20% of his wages for an extra month or 2 as it is much more economical than paying him the full amount. He will be "letting him go", in October which is better than sacking him he says. I know a couple of others who are milking the furlough scheme. I hope they are made to pay the money back but I think there are so many companies, mainly smaller, who are doing the same. I can not think of any legitamate reason as we are now fully opened. Or is there one?
  21. It is already know there is a high proportion of fraud, or at best opportuniism. I think the amount is much higher than they imagine. Why is anyone still on furlough? What possible reason can there be?
  22. Population Density of England England’s population density is 426 people per square kilometer, the second most densely populated country in the European Union after Malta. Population density in Europe is just 34 people/sq km. At 426 people/sq km, England is the most overcrowded large nation in Europe, and the 3rd in the world I would say the country is more than full. I do not think there can be any rational arguement about this? We are now the 3rd most densily populated country in the world (excluding smaller city and island states below 100km2) following Bangladesh and South Korea. We have not been self sustainable for some time. London alone would need approx 75% of the country to sustain it in food and resources. OH and added The population is much higher than this offical figure as is well known.
  23. The writing is on the wall. There is nothing the west can do to stop inflation which is already here and growing. China is the Elephant in the room and the Elephant is getting bigger and bigger. By mid 2022 it will be ginormous. But, you are right. I expect tapering will start about now, but it wont be enough or done fast enough. We probably wont see a interest hike until 2nd Qtr 2022 when they will have no choice. It will be too small and too late and they will be playing catch up for the next decade. I think most of us are aware of this, but the questions are, how will this affect things? and what can we do to mitigate it?
  24. COST OF FOOD MAY BE CUT Food prices are likely to come down later this year, according to a forecast by the treasury. In its monthly assessment of the economic situation, the Treasury says that prices rose by nearly 4% during the first five months of this year. This was largely due to temporary supply difficulties; the report says adding: “Some of the movement in food prices is likely to be reversed later in the year”. It concludes there will be only a modest increase in living costs over the rest of the year. So everything is OK then?
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