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Flat Bear

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Everything posted by Flat Bear

  1. Keep it together. I have never witnessed so much fear from a poster. There are a lot of bearish views of the housing market on this site (House price crash.com gives it away) There are other sites who are the polar opposite with some as, or nearly as, bullish as you. The truth is we are in an extremely dangerous time economically. Interest rates will rise next year, that is a given, and will continue to do so for at least several years. It may be unfair but this is the way it has always been. All you can do is prepare the best way you know how. But stop fretting, whatever will be will be.
  2. The pin that pops the bubble This time it will be political. Firstly, it is not a bubble it is bubbles and a lot of them. There are many that we still do not recognise as a bubble. Until they pop, they cannot be seen. At the end of September, the cost of paying a large percentage of the UK population to do nothing will have to be faced. It will be the amount of Fraud in this and in the numerous loan schemes that will hit the headlines and cause political mayhem. But although this will have consequences here it is the massive global bubbles that will cause the big crashes. Evergrande will have an impact but again this is entirely down to the Chinese government. A closer look at their balance sheet shows that much of the debts are against real assets such as land and properties and totals some $88 billion much of which is domestic. It is likely that Beijing will let Evergrande default but step in and sell off assets to the many other developers and guarantee all the deposits of homebuyers. This will be a very easy thing for Beijing to do and as long as they feel it is in the interest of Chinese social cohesion and stability, they will do it. They have the deepest pockets in the world. They may decide to treat any overseas investors differently and these will either lose all or if holding bonds will get a heavy haircut. I understand this only amounts to $30 billion which is a very small amount of money and will not affect any markets significantly except symbolically. At a total guess I would say the big bubble made up of lots of smaller bubble will pop when Beijing decides it will. They hold all the cards, but they are also very very patient so they may decide to let it go on for some time yet.
  3. No one is going to sell there house for less than they paid for it Why do you think it is different this time? My sister sold her one before last home at approx 12% less than she paid and I sold my home at 4% less than I paid and I had made a lot of improvements. It should not make much of a difference if the home you are going to buy is equally affordable. The banks have been very careful this time not to lend where people can get into negative equity in a big way so the banks will have no problems and everything will be OK. As we are all aware a home is somewhere to live and NOT an investment. Those that "invest" in property will be subject to market forces as all investments are. "Your investment can go down as well as up" and if you get a margin call you can lose your investment and go into debt on the balance. You may notice that your mortgage will state "You can lose your home if you do not keep up your payments" Obvious, I suppose but it should be remembered this is a fact and can lead to real hardship when you get into negative equity (margin call) I think you are totally deluded if you think the government will somehow bail you out. There is nothing wrong with being a Bull on property, but it must be remembered property prices can go down as well as up and you must at least realise there is a possibility.
  4. I was a bit disappointed reading the minutes. I did skim through but could not find any mention about them being vigilant☹️. The closest thing was "The Committee would be monitoring closely the incoming evidence" a couple of times. It seems they are no longer being vigilant but just monitoring closely🤔.
  5. Very good post, and very accurate. There are still some who want to be controlled. The same as there are a number in North Korea who think their system is the best. We will never get through to them the importance of freedom. Hopefully many of that type over here will move to the EU or maybe North Korea?
  6. There are too many pins to choose from and there are more appearing every day. It will be a multiple pin bubble pop. And when we think its all over it will get worse again.
  7. I know that I am finding price rises of 25% plus on all of my business costs. But there are a few posters who feel we are only looking at items that rise in price. I think it is a good thing to try and find at least something that is not rising in price or falling. This is not easy, but I am waiting to see how long it will be when nothing can be found that is not rising substantially. It is important for me that I am objective if I am to make correct financial decisions going forward The fact money is devaluing means prices have to rise, but it may be several months before we see double digit inflation in the CPI figures.
  8. PRICE DROPS Update of an update of an update Arrived very early this morning. Prices have FALLEN on the forecourt June 28th petrol 1.3 (1.299) Diesel 1.34 (1.339) August 17th petrol 1.33 (1.329) Diesel 1.38 (1.379) September 17th petrol 1.38 (1.379) Diesel 1.42 (1.419) September 21st petrol 1.37 (1.369) Diesel 1.41 (1.409) Only a penny but still a fall I have noticed that most of the other petrol stations are a couple of pence cheaper generally, but this place is still busy. The average profit margin on fuel is circa 1% to 2% so everything is always very tight. So on a £50 sale they only make £1 profit. How do they survive? A forecourt area manager tells me they concentrate on other sales such as sandwiches mars bars etc etc etc where they can make a margin. Any price hikes on fuel is passed on to the consumer straight away thus the constant change of price each time a tanker arrives. I have also been told that the big supermarkets work on zero margins on fuel and have been know to sell at below cost? How can this be a good business model?
  9. Thank you Scottbeard Yes Mortgage rates, or more precisely the cost of money is getting cheaper. Money is and has been lossing value for a while and I think it will continue to do so. We have got money deflation in a big way. Interest free loans are commonplace. What will money be worth in a few years time? can it continue to devalue? Insurance Costs, they have definately gone done on motor insurance and property insurances. So yes another area where prices have actually fallen quite a bit. I notice pet insurance has gone up though? I can add rents to your list, as rents have been falling quite a bit in Reading. I also note that food is not rising much, and prices are being hed down by the big supermarkets Yes Food prices do not seem to rising much. My experience with eating out is that prices have risen a bit and there is high demand for the limited supply? Maybe this is just my locality? I am surprised that the cost of moving has not gone up? I am very surprised you are able to find tradesman at lower or the same price as a year ago. Interesting to see if you continue to see availability and prices staying the same going forward.
  10. Hello scottbeard You are right. Only Dorkins tells us about bargain prices and deflation where she sees it. Could you let us know of the things that you are seeing falling in price or staying the same? This would be very good for a more balanced discussion. I notice that prices in Morrisons are still very low. How do they keep fruit and veg prices so low? They must get pickers at very low rates of pay. Wonky carrots 1KG for 40p now that is cheap. I am finding it difficult to find much else that has not gone up at all. Maybe Mobile phones and IT products? Everything that I buy and supply for my business has gone up and not a little bit. My inflation is over 25% a year and this is not exaggerated. This inflation in businesses throughout the country world will pass on to consumer prices eventually but it would be very informative to see how slowly this is occurring as you find items that have stayed the same or possibly gone down in price. Will appreciate your input.
  11. This is what I am worried about There are certain events and things that are happening that I feel I had seen before in the 1970s very early 80s, but there are other things that are much worse. In 1979 I remember suppling an alternative copper that was around 30% more in price that would not bend and had very limited uses. There was just no copper available for any price. The London Brick Company who was the major suppliers of the lower end fletton brick range were quoting 7 months lead time on all types of bricks. All the other brick and tile manufacturer had lead time that were even more extended. I was quoted 2 years for a certain type of clay roof tile but only if I ordered early. We all thought it was only temporary and the madness would come to an end. House prices were shooting up in real terms on top of inflation that was running at a similar rate as today, in fact it was less than I am currently experiencing. Wages were going up but not as quick as prices. Companies could not keep up with growing demand and choices became limited in all aspects as supply lines broke. It has to be remembered that in 1976/7 the guy with the big eyebrows had gone to the IMF and took out the biggest loan in history 4 billion pounds? Because of the balance of payment crisis or currency crisis as some called it. I remember him on telly with a massive smile on his face saying everything is ok because he secured this loan. I was quite young but can remember thinking how is he going to pay this back? By the early 1980s the whole landscape started to come to a standstill as companies decided to call it a day and the tax increases that came in took hold. We had already had the official winter of discontent which had become a permanent period of discontent. I remember passing a large group of people outside a large engineering works on strike, they had been on strike several weeks apparently. Passing just a week later the place was boarded up as the company had gone into liquidation but there was still a couple of strikers standing outside bemused. Some people were talking about their quality of life and working less hours whilst employers should pay them more, it was a surreal time. Then came the stagflation which was a horrible period. Although officially it was in the 1970s it seemed to be more painful for me in the early 1980s as the economy came to a standstill. It seemed like a recession that would last forever but in reality, only lasted a few years. Today I am seeing more supply problems, not just on a relatively selected range of commodities like the 70s but everything. Inflationary pressure is much higher now than then 10x more. Yes, it is true that the problems started with the loose fiscal policies of the 1960s and 1970s and the large amount of debt that had been accumulated but this was nothing like we have now. The debt build up of the 1970s was limited in a way by interest rates as even the totally irresponsible Labour party realized they had to pay a large amount of interest on their borrowing. The debt today has been unlimited and is easy to service with a zero percent interest rate, so the debt has just grown and grown until it has become impossible to pay it back even with the longest hardest recession possible. So a collapseflation is on the cards.
  12. Yes Sunak has been trying to distance himself from Boris and has tried to become the new saviour that makes the hard decisions when necessary. He has talked about prudence and doing the right thing. Unfortunately for him he will be remembered for being part of the problem no matter what he does here on in. He will not make it to number 10. You are right it will have to be a outlier with no emotional attachment to previous decisiomns and a critic of QE and of living beyond ones means. There will be political upheaval when the blame game starts. It is impossible to say what will be the end result of it all as in theory it could be the end of Capitalism as we have known it. And they thought there was no consequence of QE. Yes This is a global phenomenon which puts it on a scale never seen before and the UK is subject to global pressures as the UK was a complicit participant.
  13. Update of an update June 28th petrol 1.3 (1.299) Diesel 1.34 (1.339) August 17th petrol 1.33 (1.329) Diesel 1.38 (1.379) September 17th petrol 1.38 (1.379) Diesel 1.42 (1.419) But Morrisons still at 1.327 this morning on petrol so 5p cheaper Although there is a definate upward trend it is still less than the original rises I was expecting. It seems that food, petrol and general other consumer products are not rising in price at any real pace. How are they keeping prices so low when the cost of production is going up at least 25% per annum? I am continuing to see shortages and rises. You would think it could not get any worse but it does. I have had a container delivery of fixings cancelled for today due to no driver available. They say I will not get delivery till mid Oct. as this is the next slot and I will have to pay demurrage charges on top. These goods were ordered 10 months ago! I will not be paying any extra and will get a delivery sooner if they like it or not, but sorting it out takes a lot of time and hassel. The situation is getting to breaking point and we will see real problems everywhere. I understand the situation is much worse on the continant and there is likely to be civil unrest throughout the EU. We may see the return of troubles in Ireland as the EU sanctions take hold and life becomes very difficult. It is likely we will start to see shortages slowly starting to happen in the run up to Christmas and it will get much worse as we go into 2022. You may even see shortages of many food lines as soon as next Easter. This is not down to the lack of drivers, and not Brexit (infact the opposite) or even Covid, all these are bottlenecks but not the overall reason, but to a major economic shift mainly due to the QE experiment. It may be a few years before we see the situation clearer.
  14. Thank you for your on going information about the less risky end of the mortgage market. It tells us how much liquidity is in the system at very low rates ie QE. It shows there is still more left in the system. It will be very interesting to see how rates change over the next 12 months. The banks have very little to worry about on your 60% LTV as even if the Housing market fell say 60% in real terms over the next 3 years (which is very unlikely) the nominal fall would be no more than 40% as inflation takes care of the rest, so in this very worst case senario they would still end up with a LTV of 100%. Unfortunately you would not have any equity in that senario but keeping up the payments on the ultra low mortgage would be easy.
  15. So it was a rise of 1.2% Still way below what it should be Inflation surges to 3.2pc in fastest monthly rise on record - live updates
  16. You’re not going back far enough You need to have proven ancestry going back way before the Cretaceous period and ideally into the Jurassic. Those that go back to the Triassic or before are just being silly. We still talk about auntie Dilop the old fossil. sigh.
  17. He is now telling me he knows he is a Racist and he is proud of it. He was trying to see if there were others that thought like him. I had originally thought he was just a deluded wok who thought it important to highlight peoples backgrounds and their parentage. If you look back at his posts, he likes to tell us all how brilliant he is owning "several" companies and “several” houses and from a very well to do background. He has mentioned several times how much charity he gives out in large amounts. If it were true, he would be a real snob, but it would be difficult to believe any of it. My background was totally the opposite and I have worked very hard to keep my single business operating for the last 30 years profitably. It has been very tough out there for a long time, but I still run my business with integrity and deal with all my staff, customers and suppliers with respect.
  18. What if it is? Do you think you are superior because of where you were born and your ancestory? I thought we had got passed this sort of mindset. There are sadely still many of you still around.
  19. Did anyone else find this and Yelims comments, which he subsequently removed, distasteful? The Real problem is these people do not know they are Racists. I think they believe they can make these comments about anyone highlighting that they think they are different from others in our country because of the ethnicity of their parents. If this is not Racist, then nothing is. They would probably use the pretext they were doing her a service. Calling her/us gammons for enjoying her victory, no we are just proud of her and not just because she won a grand slam but the way she conducted herself. I really hope that Emma will be strong enough to be able to come through all this without too many scars. It will be found that she is not perfect after all as the fact is nobody is, but I hope she is able to deflect these stupid observations that certain idiots feel they need to highlight. I am glad they have no idea about my ethnicity as I sure they would be making even more of it as mine might be more colourful.
  20. This is a very true There are two I know of who I would take on with decent wages straight away, but it is a criminal offence to employ anyone without the correct paperwork. We really do treat this group of people already in the UK appallingly. I think it is generally accepted that Brexit has really improved the lives of working people. If you notice it is normally posters that reside in foreign countries that state how bad it is here. It is crystal clear that England is a much better place to live now than say, France. That is so obvious. For example, when was the last time there was a report on any migrants or in fact anyone that had set off from the south coast of England to find Asylum in France? If there was anyone found doing this the first port of call would be an assessment with a psychiatrist.
  21. I did not want to get into Numismatics. It would have to be in the form of a coin for example or a physical bar of known weight and the market value accepted by both parties. Without having a legal tender it can only be as a barter type "exchange". Lamskins, Salt and of course wool would have traditionally been better mediums of exchange especially wool in England in the middle ages. I agree it is what is widely accepted such as ciggerettes which have a definate currency value in any prison, but would probably have the same affect when trying to buy a loaf of bread and a packet of sausages from your local supermarket. I realize you know much more than I do on this subject but below is a statment from an investment platform. It is important for any "investor" to realize this for all types of commodities. Gold has No Intrinsic Value While gold’s meteoric rise has led to an almost cultish following, it is important for long-term investors to remain cognisant of the facts: gold has no fundamental value
  22. Yes all very logical I am doing something very similar As you say it is only human nature to be annoyed to buy at a higher price but if you initially say to yourself I believe it possible these shares could go down by x amount at which time I will buy more it makes it easier, or so I think now before they do go down. It is very difficult to take emotion out of investing, we are either scared or excited.
  23. As an asset though I agree…it’s as real as it comes. Yes What is real? Apart from a house what do ordinary people have that is of real value? By asking the right questions can we get the right answers "IF" All the worlds computers were wipped clean and all stored info disappered what would have a value? Bitcoin, Bank deposits? What about bags of spuds or gold sovereigns? "IF" There is massive inflation and fiat currencies lose there credibility What would be the value of various financial assets. What about bags of spuds or gold sovereigns? It comes down to tangible assets on many senarios. A cup of water is much more valuable when in the middle of a desert than a bar of gold.
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