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Flat Bear

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Posts posted by Flat Bear

  1. 1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

    I mean I can't disprove that because you could be buying things I don't - but what on Earth is going up 25%?!

    This month for example I renewed my TV Licence (1% higher), my childcare costs have gone up (6.5% higher) my breakdown cover last month was unchanged (0%) .... I will admit I don't really keep tabs on what I spend on food.  But my own experience finds it very hard to understand where a total inflation rate of 25% would be coming from.

    Washers up 35% over 6 months, Screws (steel and stainless) up 70% over 10 months, shipping costs up 1000% over 16 months, carboard boxes up 32% around 12 months, wages up 28% over 10 months, plastic (nylon 6) up 100% over 14 months, my rent review as of today up 20% over 5 years but this would have been just 5% this time last year, silicones and mastics generally between 90% to 120% over 12 months.

    It is not just the price hikes everybody knows everything is jumping in price it is the fact a lot of things you just can not get no matter how much you are willing to pay.

    So your childcare costs are not going up maybe a very tiny amount (I do not know how all that works to be honest and how they survive without increasing prices, maybe they are subsidised?) and the BBC are not putting up the licence fee? I know they dont need the money but if they were allowed to do it do you think they would put it up by quite a lot? Maybe they will start charging old people to make up the shortfall. Car insurances and breakdown cover has been falling because people are not traveling so much, so you will see a fall in both of these this year. My business insurance only went up by 12.2% but trades especially working at heights, working with wood etc etc is 100% more than it was 12 months ago. My energy cost will go up by around 70% next year (hopefully no more) after my fixed rate end 3 year.

    It is very hard to understand where your 3.1% is coming from, even taking into account the deflation in your car insurance and breakdown costs.

  2. 1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

    I can't easily disprove that because it's not like I maintain my own separate record of a diverse basket to rival the ONS - I suspect you probably can't prove your gut feel that it's wrong scientifically either!

    In case anyone wants to see the full list of what's in the basket it's here:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2feconomy%2finflationandpriceindices%2fdatasets%2fconsumerpriceinflationbasketofgoodsandservices%2f2021/combinedtablescpibasket2021.xlsx

    By the way, I suspect that some of it is just that the most recent rises aren't yet fully captured (since this is September data) and CPI will end up somewhere between 5% and 10% in a few months time.

    I'm afraid I am with PMax2020 on this.

    Everything you say makes sense and l am sure is correct but the figures have got so far out of kilter to my own experience it is just a joke. In my world inflation is running at 25%

  3. 7 hours ago, Freki said:

    Sure they don't

    Because China is any different? Ask Chinese people the confidence they have in the RMB, pretty sure it is much lower than the West. 

    Other than that, yes troubles ahead

    country public debt (billion USD) % of GDP
    World 56,308 64%
    United States* 17,607 74%
    Japan 9,872 214%
    China 3,894 32%

     

    The US owes China around $1.1 trillion USD as of 2021

    China owns £57 billion of FTSE 100 share mainly made up of a 49% stake in HSBC

    China owns £143 billion in UK assets many of them strategic.

    China owns the west, infact they own much of the world.

    If  when China has a downturn the west collapses.

    It does not matter what the Chinese people think, they are under total control by the CCP. We are in very frightening times.

  4. On 25/09/2021 at 19:33, zugzwang said:

     

    It's far too late to talk about strategic threats. There are seven and a half billion people in the world, all of whom want a standard of living roughly comparable with that of Western Europe. Whether they can ever get to that stage of development is a moot point. What isn't moot is that Western Europe, the US and Japan don't have the capacity to satisfy that demand or even a fraction of it. Ultimately, that's why Chinese industrial socialism has triumphed and Western financialised capitalism is doomed to fail outright.

    "There are seven and a half billion people in the world,"

    Interesting. There are now just shy of 8 billion and rising very fast but the extra 1/2 billion does not really make much difference to us really. It should do. This was the world population when Sir Walter Raleigh popped over to America for some spuds for Elizabeth the 1st 

  5. On 19/10/2021 at 00:12, Timm said:

    Please correct me if I am wrong with the statements below:

    A bailout of Evergrande would be an inflationary event. 

    The failure of Evergrande would be a deflationary event.

    Hello Timm

    I do not think it is simply binary or linear.

    Inflation/deflation can take many forms. The particular situation we are in the moment is driven nearly exclusively by China. The BOE and FED still do not want to recognise this and are still in denial.

    Evergrande is not an important issue in isolation, but it is the reason this has come about and the situation throughout the entire market. This is the start of a credit crunch which will be more global taking longer and being much deeper than the credit crunch of 2009 which was down to some bad lending practices and naughty behaviour of the banks.

    The CCP will control the demise of Evergrande for their own purposes and "the good of stability in the market" but Evergrande will cease to exist.

    It could be the case that:

    A bailout of Evergrande would be an inflationary event for the property market and assets generally.

    A bailout of Evergrande would be a deflationary event for consumables and exports

     The CCP are in a consolidation phase where they are isolating from the world and are looking to hoard as much of the world’s resources as they can for their own internal market. They no longer need the west.

     At the same time the west has trashed their currencies and have got into an unsustainable debt spiral.

     We are only seeing the very early stages of this but by just extrapolating forward the slightly annoying supply chain problems we are having now it is terrifying to try and imagine what we will see in the years to come.

     

    As always, only time will tell.

  6. 2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    That's proper insane.  They're pulling risky loans while encouraging anyone with equity to borrow more.

    It's f**king EVIL.

    3.1% LOL unbelievabubble.

    They have now got as many as they can in their net, maybe just a couple more can overstretch a wee bit. It will soon be time to milk their catch for as much and for as long as they can. Why do people think the banks are in business for? They learnt their lesson in 2009 and this time they have their a***es covered.

  7. On 12/10/2021 at 00:36, Warlord said:

    I keep posting this and you'll notice within a year I reckon that this will happen with consumer goods.  That is prices changing daily or weekly. We're going to see some weird s**t going on. We're going to see hyperinflation the likes of which were seen in Zimbabwe, Cuba, Argentina, etc.

    It's already happening in business and in the supply chain,  Won't be long until it filters down.

    The banksters are out of control and have no intention of raising rates to stop  this from happening. 

    https://news.sky.com/story/prices-at-breakfast-are-out-of-date-by-teatime-and-this-business-is-beginning-to-suffer-12431663

    I am beginning to think you may be right and we could see hyperinflation

    We must be very careful for what we wish for.

  8. 17 hours ago, gruffydd said:

    They won't get ahead of the curve - they're old school laggards who don't even seem to be on top of the basic dataflows. So it's 0.15% in December.

    Then a bigger rise in February when they eventually realise they're behind the curve. 0.25%. 

    Nothing will happen in November... some bolloxology about Furlough (we already know there's been little impact re: the ending of furlough, but apparently these Bank of England twits need anther month lol). 

     

    Hello Gruffydd

    Whether you are right or wrong in the short-term external forces will eventually force the cost of fiat currency up. As you are fully aware the BOE have no influence or no tools to change the oncoming financial situation.

    There are some posters who I had thought of being alarmist about hyperinflation but in my world, I am seeing a 100% inflation rate without any reason for it not to increase, so maybe they are the realists.

    There are a number of posters who insist the CPI figures are accurate and that prices in their local supermarket and the amount of money it cost to fill up their car is still very cheap, and prices have not changed for years, but I am certain this cannot continue.

    For example, I have been supplying companies directly involved in the infrastructure of distribution of all the larger supermarket chains including ASDA, TESCO and MORRISONS. Yes, we have had to increase prices drastically to them, but this was not the real problem. The real problem is we can no longer supply them at all due to global shortages and complete breakdowns in supply chains. This may not affect people immediately but next year we will see at least a proportion of superstores just close down as the business models for many are unviable. Yes, some may try to increase prices by 30 or 40% but even this will not be enough to prevent closures. There are numerous examples like this with many businesses deciding it is no longer worth trading. The recent tax hikes did not help and many of the people who really run the economy disappear.  

     

  9. 14 hours ago, winkie said:

    Billions more people live on a world that we all share, they all need food, they all need fuel, they all need to travel, they all require manufactured goods, where the goods are made is immaterial energy has to be used to make them and fuel required to move them.......peak oil at a time when we have peak growth, the only way is to use less energy, using less energy will mean having less of everything, wasting less, and sharing more.

     

     

    Yes this is what many forget it is not about the UK it is global. We will have to fight for what we need in the future.

    The other 8 billion people on the planet want more and a much bigger piece of the pie. If we are not strong enough they will take it all. One way or another there will be conflict and the strongest will survive.

  10. 2 hours ago, Horseradish said:

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/10/02/the-government-looks-set-to-ditch-an-ambitious-target-for-housebuilding

    This is based on work by Ian Mulheirn. Really good to see this in such a reputable publication. They also name-check the fact that this is now policy in Gove's new department.

    We are so lucky to have people with such insight. I read somewhere the other day that prices rising could have something to do with supply and demand!

  11. In 2014

    Green party to call for £10 minimum wage for all by 2020

    This article is 7 years old

    Party leader Natalie Bennett will argue minimum wage of £6.31 should be immediately raised to living wage level

    Green Party to increase Living Wage to £12 for all workers over the age of 16

    17 November 2019

     

    Voters of all parties overwhelmingly support £15 minimum wage, poll finds

    29th September 2021

     

    The greens will have to go one better. It’s got to be £20 by now

    Lucky there is no wage inflation in the UK

  12. 4 hours ago, Kosmin said:

    How much of this is due to Brexit though? I think this question can be asked of several of the advantages and disadvantages attributed to Brexit.

    Some people have pointed out that some of the problems which might seem to be caused by us leaving the EU are actually being experienced in other countries.

    In fact I think you were one of the people who pointed out that whilst Brexit had contributed to the shortage of drivers, other factors were more significant (I think you linked to an article in The Grocer).

    If Brexit isn't the main cause of shortages, can it be the main cause of pay rises?

    How can Brexit, we are still in the process I believe, have anything to do with a global shortage of drivers, or more precisely logistical staff? The situation is probably worst in Germany as I know from my own experience this week. But I suppose it is logical as they are the most industrialised with higher demands than the rest of the EU or the UK in that matter.

    I would say that you may have a small point about wage rises at the lower end as demand for workers increases but the labour pool has shrunk albeit slightly. But is this not a good thing? as it now becomes more rewarding to go to work people get paid a more liveable wage.

    Again, shortages are worse in Germany than anywhere else in Europe, again to be expected. The US is experiencing even wider disruptions which will eventually find its way to Europe and the UK. We will start to see REAL shortages next year.

    I am perplexed at the so-called current fuel shortage. If the government were correct and there truly was enough fuel at the pumps, why are we still seeing queues and stations still running dry? By now every vehicle in the country should be filled to capacity and every available jerry can filled, it does not add up. There could be the possibility that this is not a simple logistical problem after all. Yes, I already know there is now a shortage of jerry cans, who would have thought it?

  13. 21 hours ago, Roman Roady said:

    How will this damage the UK? Is it increased prices?

    In every way you can think of.

    It will impact on everything.

    Why did the last credit crunch affect the UK? It was all in the US was it not. 

    This credit crunch is much bigger and is more global from the wealthiest powerhouse on the planet. It will effect everything.

    We have never really seen shortages in this country for basic commodities. Imagine a real fuel shortage, the whole country would start to shut down within days. Then on top of that a power shortage. Then a food shortage.....

    Yes, It may damage the UK a bit.

  14. 5 hours ago, scottbeard said:

    To flip it around, what do *I* see happening:

    - High inflation

    - Higher taxes

    - People generally being poorer

    - Less choice in the shops

    - A drift back towards things being done in the UK by UK workers

    None of which are positive, but none of which are anything like what I term a "collapse".

    I think that, for example, a year from now 28 September 2022 I will be able to go to the bank, walking along a street with law and order in operation, withdraw money, go into a supermarket (without a face mask) and buy plenty of food.  What do you see happening?

    I think that, for example, a year from now 28 September 2022 I will be able to go to the bank, walking along a street with law and order in operation, withdraw money, go into a supermarket (without a face mask) and buy plenty of food.  What do you see happening?

     

    Where do you live and when? Sounds like a small sussex village in the 1950s

    I find it difficult to do many of these things now and it will be worse in 12 months for sure.

    All the main Banks only have "branches" in the bigger cities and there is a possibility you will need to make an appointment. It is clearly becoming less safe to walk the street and in the next 12 months it will get worse (promise) You will find it increasingly difficult to be able to withdraw money as many ATM disappear and we are persuaded to use alternative payment methods. You may be able to buy plenty of food in a supermarket (maybe not), but you will pay a lot more money for it and you will have a more limited choice.

  15. 5 hours ago, gruffydd said:

    What we will see is a rapid forcing of the Bank of England's arm and it will be this year. They have seen the data - inflation expectations are shooting to the moon. If they leave it another couple of months it will be too late, and they know that. One final thrown of the dice... to see if they can impact inflation expecations (PS. they won't and cannot). 

    Even with this overwhelming evidence and events that make it even more imperative I believe they could hold out until February 2022. But then it would need be a raise to 0.5% but as you say it will have been too little too late and they will be under even more pressure to put rates up again. They will still only raise to 1% and rates by the end of 2022 are more likely to be less than 1.5% than more. They will leave it until it is too late until they don’t.

    I have never felt as negatively about the global financial situation as I do today. It is impossible for anyone without real knowledge of those that control the world to know when a financial collapse and credit crunch will hit but I would see it more likely to happen in the next 4 weeks than in the last 5 years.

    As I have mentioned numerous times it will be China that starts all this in motion. The current collapse of the Chinese markets and credit crunch with material shortages will affect us for sure, and when China catches a cold ......we all perish.

    I Do not really take much notice on the bond markets or money supply data, but I would think there will be reports of strange activity soon. For me, the first indication will be when the FTSE falls by more than 3% in a day. Even if it recovers you know it will repeat and more. If we do see an initial 5% fall in a day, then it’s all over. All of this is totally outside the BOE control whatever they do or don't do with interest rates.

     

  16. 3 hours ago, gruffydd said:

    All MPC members ready to raise UK rates this year if needed, says Bailey

    https://www.ft.com/content/b3e403a3-a408-4d84-b71e-8857b677bbea

    They may have just noticed the inflation data heading their way... it is horrendous. They may well be forced to raise rates. 

    I know you work in some sort of financial market analysis so you will see figures clearer than me. I am very interested what the latest data is telling you.

    I have been in a meeting with the main shareholder and CEO of several UK manufacturing and distribution industries. Throughout all his businesses he sees the exactly the same problems as we do. 

    The driver is China. It all stems from China. Prices, shortages and even staff shortages can be put down to this. The really difficult thing for even us to get our heads around is that we have not seen the worst of it yet. This is only the beginning. Prices have risen around 100% over the past 16 months on most imports. The next year will be worse. At some stage this must be seen in the CPI figures and "ordinary"  people will see prices shooting up.

    Companies will be going into liquidation but not for the same reasons as normal. Business models that worked previously simply no longer can survive. Companies in the UK are interdependant on compaies in many other companies throughout the world and we are already starting to see various domino effects throughout various industries.

    Even small retail outlets will struggle. A small restauranter could well find he just can not find the staff even at painfully high wages, the end result will be the restaurant going out of business. The situation seems worse in the states but we have it in Europe and the UK. Germany have started to close down businesses which is having some knock on affects with UK companies.

    Things we take for granted we will no longer be able to get. At first we will get products at higher prices and then we wont be able to get them at all. 2022 and 2023 will be frightening.

    It is a very difficult time to run a business.

  17. 6 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    It's only really a bubble if you dont own a house, or you actually have to work for a living and/or refuse to live off the backs of other people likes some useless scumbag

    If the bubble in 2007 needed to collapse 50%, this one needs to go down 70%, real or nominally.

    Collpase one way or another is inevitable.

    Image

    You can never know you are in a bubble until it bursts. Before that it is the new paradigm.

  18. 7 hours ago, Saving For a Space Ship said:

    Suppliers in China for Apple, Tesla, Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm, NXP, Infineon, ASE Forced to Halt Production amid Energy Crackdown

    The Everything Shortage keeps promising to keep getting worse.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2021/09/26/suppliers-in-china-for-apple-tesla-intel-nvidia-qualcomm-nxp-infineon-ase-tech-forced-to-halt-production-amid-chinas-energy-crackdown/

    Someone told me there was a shortage of Dwarves. Or is this just a collective noun?

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