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Flat Bear

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Everything posted by Flat Bear

  1. Likely to be a new record increase even at low estimates.
  2. So 5% it is then. They will probably some how manage to keep it to 4.8 or 4.9% So they wont need to increase interest rates for a few months yet.
  3. I am beginning to think you may be right and we could see hyperinflation We must be very careful for what we wish for.
  4. I have heard that ladders are going up, but on the other hand snakes are coming down.
  5. Hello Gruffydd Whether you are right or wrong in the short-term external forces will eventually force the cost of fiat currency up. As you are fully aware the BOE have no influence or no tools to change the oncoming financial situation. There are some posters who I had thought of being alarmist about hyperinflation but in my world, I am seeing a 100% inflation rate without any reason for it not to increase, so maybe they are the realists. There are a number of posters who insist the CPI figures are accurate and that prices in their local supermarket and the amount of money it cost to fill up their car is still very cheap, and prices have not changed for years, but I am certain this cannot continue. For example, I have been supplying companies directly involved in the infrastructure of distribution of all the larger supermarket chains including ASDA, TESCO and MORRISONS. Yes, we have had to increase prices drastically to them, but this was not the real problem. The real problem is we can no longer supply them at all due to global shortages and complete breakdowns in supply chains. This may not affect people immediately but next year we will see at least a proportion of superstores just close down as the business models for many are unviable. Yes, some may try to increase prices by 30 or 40% but even this will not be enough to prevent closures. There are numerous examples like this with many businesses deciding it is no longer worth trading. The recent tax hikes did not help and many of the people who really run the economy disappear.
  6. China will not bail out its property developers so junk yields hit 20% what happens next and will it affect house prices in UK. Yes
  7. Yes this is what many forget it is not about the UK it is global. We will have to fight for what we need in the future. The other 8 billion people on the planet want more and a much bigger piece of the pie. If we are not strong enough they will take it all. One way or another there will be conflict and the strongest will survive.
  8. We are so lucky to have people with such insight. I read somewhere the other day that prices rising could have something to do with supply and demand!
  9. In 2014 Green party to call for £10 minimum wage for all by 2020 This article is 7 years old Party leader Natalie Bennett will argue minimum wage of £6.31 should be immediately raised to living wage level Green Party to increase Living Wage to £12 for all workers over the age of 16 17 November 2019 Voters of all parties overwhelmingly support £15 minimum wage, poll finds 29th September 2021 The greens will have to go one better. It’s got to be £20 by now Lucky there is no wage inflation in the UK
  10. I suppose the BOE are buying bulk pack and a lot more often than they use to do.
  11. How can Brexit, we are still in the process I believe, have anything to do with a global shortage of drivers, or more precisely logistical staff? The situation is probably worst in Germany as I know from my own experience this week. But I suppose it is logical as they are the most industrialised with higher demands than the rest of the EU or the UK in that matter. I would say that you may have a small point about wage rises at the lower end as demand for workers increases but the labour pool has shrunk albeit slightly. But is this not a good thing? as it now becomes more rewarding to go to work people get paid a more liveable wage. Again, shortages are worse in Germany than anywhere else in Europe, again to be expected. The US is experiencing even wider disruptions which will eventually find its way to Europe and the UK. We will start to see REAL shortages next year. I am perplexed at the so-called current fuel shortage. If the government were correct and there truly was enough fuel at the pumps, why are we still seeing queues and stations still running dry? By now every vehicle in the country should be filled to capacity and every available jerry can filled, it does not add up. There could be the possibility that this is not a simple logistical problem after all. Yes, I already know there is now a shortage of jerry cans, who would have thought it?
  12. In every way you can think of. It will impact on everything. Why did the last credit crunch affect the UK? It was all in the US was it not. This credit crunch is much bigger and is more global from the wealthiest powerhouse on the planet. It will effect everything. We have never really seen shortages in this country for basic commodities. Imagine a real fuel shortage, the whole country would start to shut down within days. Then on top of that a power shortage. Then a food shortage..... Yes, It may damage the UK a bit.
  13. I think that, for example, a year from now 28 September 2022 I will be able to go to the bank, walking along a street with law and order in operation, withdraw money, go into a supermarket (without a face mask) and buy plenty of food. What do you see happening? Where do you live and when? Sounds like a small sussex village in the 1950s I find it difficult to do many of these things now and it will be worse in 12 months for sure. All the main Banks only have "branches" in the bigger cities and there is a possibility you will need to make an appointment. It is clearly becoming less safe to walk the street and in the next 12 months it will get worse (promise) You will find it increasingly difficult to be able to withdraw money as many ATM disappear and we are persuaded to use alternative payment methods. You may be able to buy plenty of food in a supermarket (maybe not), but you will pay a lot more money for it and you will have a more limited choice.
  14. Even with this overwhelming evidence and events that make it even more imperative I believe they could hold out until February 2022. But then it would need be a raise to 0.5% but as you say it will have been too little too late and they will be under even more pressure to put rates up again. They will still only raise to 1% and rates by the end of 2022 are more likely to be less than 1.5% than more. They will leave it until it is too late until they don’t. I have never felt as negatively about the global financial situation as I do today. It is impossible for anyone without real knowledge of those that control the world to know when a financial collapse and credit crunch will hit but I would see it more likely to happen in the next 4 weeks than in the last 5 years. As I have mentioned numerous times it will be China that starts all this in motion. The current collapse of the Chinese markets and credit crunch with material shortages will affect us for sure, and when China catches a cold ......we all perish. I Do not really take much notice on the bond markets or money supply data, but I would think there will be reports of strange activity soon. For me, the first indication will be when the FTSE falls by more than 3% in a day. Even if it recovers you know it will repeat and more. If we do see an initial 5% fall in a day, then it’s all over. All of this is totally outside the BOE control whatever they do or don't do with interest rates.
  15. I know you work in some sort of financial market analysis so you will see figures clearer than me. I am very interested what the latest data is telling you. I have been in a meeting with the main shareholder and CEO of several UK manufacturing and distribution industries. Throughout all his businesses he sees the exactly the same problems as we do. The driver is China. It all stems from China. Prices, shortages and even staff shortages can be put down to this. The really difficult thing for even us to get our heads around is that we have not seen the worst of it yet. This is only the beginning. Prices have risen around 100% over the past 16 months on most imports. The next year will be worse. At some stage this must be seen in the CPI figures and "ordinary" people will see prices shooting up. Companies will be going into liquidation but not for the same reasons as normal. Business models that worked previously simply no longer can survive. Companies in the UK are interdependant on compaies in many other companies throughout the world and we are already starting to see various domino effects throughout various industries. Even small retail outlets will struggle. A small restauranter could well find he just can not find the staff even at painfully high wages, the end result will be the restaurant going out of business. The situation seems worse in the states but we have it in Europe and the UK. Germany have started to close down businesses which is having some knock on affects with UK companies. Things we take for granted we will no longer be able to get. At first we will get products at higher prices and then we wont be able to get them at all. 2022 and 2023 will be frightening. It is a very difficult time to run a business.
  16. You can never know you are in a bubble until it bursts. Before that it is the new paradigm.
  17. Keep it together. I have never witnessed so much fear from a poster. There are a lot of bearish views of the housing market on this site (House price crash.com gives it away) There are other sites who are the polar opposite with some as, or nearly as, bullish as you. The truth is we are in an extremely dangerous time economically. Interest rates will rise next year, that is a given, and will continue to do so for at least several years. It may be unfair but this is the way it has always been. All you can do is prepare the best way you know how. But stop fretting, whatever will be will be.
  18. The pin that pops the bubble This time it will be political. Firstly, it is not a bubble it is bubbles and a lot of them. There are many that we still do not recognise as a bubble. Until they pop, they cannot be seen. At the end of September, the cost of paying a large percentage of the UK population to do nothing will have to be faced. It will be the amount of Fraud in this and in the numerous loan schemes that will hit the headlines and cause political mayhem. But although this will have consequences here it is the massive global bubbles that will cause the big crashes. Evergrande will have an impact but again this is entirely down to the Chinese government. A closer look at their balance sheet shows that much of the debts are against real assets such as land and properties and totals some $88 billion much of which is domestic. It is likely that Beijing will let Evergrande default but step in and sell off assets to the many other developers and guarantee all the deposits of homebuyers. This will be a very easy thing for Beijing to do and as long as they feel it is in the interest of Chinese social cohesion and stability, they will do it. They have the deepest pockets in the world. They may decide to treat any overseas investors differently and these will either lose all or if holding bonds will get a heavy haircut. I understand this only amounts to $30 billion which is a very small amount of money and will not affect any markets significantly except symbolically. At a total guess I would say the big bubble made up of lots of smaller bubble will pop when Beijing decides it will. They hold all the cards, but they are also very very patient so they may decide to let it go on for some time yet.
  19. No one is going to sell there house for less than they paid for it Why do you think it is different this time? My sister sold her one before last home at approx 12% less than she paid and I sold my home at 4% less than I paid and I had made a lot of improvements. It should not make much of a difference if the home you are going to buy is equally affordable. The banks have been very careful this time not to lend where people can get into negative equity in a big way so the banks will have no problems and everything will be OK. As we are all aware a home is somewhere to live and NOT an investment. Those that "invest" in property will be subject to market forces as all investments are. "Your investment can go down as well as up" and if you get a margin call you can lose your investment and go into debt on the balance. You may notice that your mortgage will state "You can lose your home if you do not keep up your payments" Obvious, I suppose but it should be remembered this is a fact and can lead to real hardship when you get into negative equity (margin call) I think you are totally deluded if you think the government will somehow bail you out. There is nothing wrong with being a Bull on property, but it must be remembered property prices can go down as well as up and you must at least realise there is a possibility.
  20. I was a bit disappointed reading the minutes. I did skim through but could not find any mention about them being vigilant☹️. The closest thing was "The Committee would be monitoring closely the incoming evidence" a couple of times. It seems they are no longer being vigilant but just monitoring closely🤔.
  21. Very good post, and very accurate. There are still some who want to be controlled. The same as there are a number in North Korea who think their system is the best. We will never get through to them the importance of freedom. Hopefully many of that type over here will move to the EU or maybe North Korea?
  22. There are too many pins to choose from and there are more appearing every day. It will be a multiple pin bubble pop. And when we think its all over it will get worse again.
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