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Everything posted by Insane

  1. The big question is that no body has the answer for is how many people are there like the guy on reddit? Someone who took out a mortgage on a decent five year fixed rate who has paid will be able to arrange another fix at a decent rate for another five years. Fast forward five years and they will be 10 years into their mortgage having cleared quite a decent amount of capital. They should be ok to get the best deals for the rest of the mortgage term. There will always be those who struggle and don't make it ,they will be the forced sales, the repossessed but how many of them are there ? How many does there need to be that they are going to have an impact on the market ?
  2. As I said we shall see. byron 78 in another thread has stated that housing in the UK will return to its norm. Which is those without family money will rent. It was only after the second world war that average people bought homes. My Grandad was a Dentist with his own practice who rented until he sold his practice and retired at this point he bought his own home with the proceeds of the practice. There are huge amounts of money being invested in building places to rent out by big corporations right now. I think there is an over supply of posh blocks of flats in London built to rent , however if they get their act together and build to demand including building houses for rent to family's with longer term contracts they will have an impact for keeping the prices high and the market not being destroyed by forced sellers. About 10 years ago when people were in trouble there was a scheme where those in trouble could sell to the local council and rent the place back , it did not really take off for various reasons , but instead of HTB a new prop could be sell to rent . Selling to the state , council or a corporation to keep stressed sellers from flooding the market and bringing prices down.
  3. Someone in the Building industry once told me Kitchens and Bathrooms (modern ones ) sell properties. That is why most developers strive to include up to date styles and choices. The Quality is irrelevant the look is what is important.
  4. No but how many people are not in the Bubble ? How many have small or no mortgages ? The Boomers get a lot of flack on here and accused of taking everything. Well being a tail end Boomer I know many others that have bought a house and not pilled up with high amounts of debt. There are many who won't be that hard hit by IR's raising. As anyone who has been on here for years would have heard the housing market (what a house is worth) is decided by those buying and selling at a given time , it is not decided by the millions of people who have not got their house for sale. We don't know how many are going to be forced sellers , we don't know how much HK money there is. We don't know when the War will end with everyone raising a sigh of relief seeing petrol drop and thinking everything is back to normal , you mentioned the pandemic in an earlier thread , for many it is a distant memory. As I said Who Knows ? No one.
  5. Not really. I am not just talking about on here I remember people in 2000 saying it will crash again. You have to take into account that those people saying that had lived through and seen the 80's crash that hit the bottom in the mid 90's then watched it take two/three years to gain back all it's losses then climb to what were dizzy highs compared to the late 90's by 2000. Their prediction of another crash in 2000 has proved to be very wrong. Of course the environment is different to the one that grew the bubble but there are also other factors to take into account , like a massive increase in population that is still growing not shrinking, overseas money how many are bringing cart loads of money from Hong Kong ? The equity in housing is coming down the generations. As I said Who Knows ? Answer nobody. I have a brother who could only afford a small flat in a sh-t area that took all his money he sold up in about 2007 went back to living in an HMO and spent the profit. He is now 54 and sick and tired on living in shared housing , he earns an average salary. My Dad died recently and there is a house to be sold plus cash to share out between 3 of us. We are going to give him enough to buy a small place outright. He is going to live in it only needing to pay his bills and food. He does not care about what it will be worth as he lives there. Interest rates rising will not bother him , the value dropping won't either. The pandemic , war in Europe, a recession and inflation won't make any difference to him. All he wants to do is buy a place shut his front door and not have to share a kitchen, bathroom or any living space with any stranger ever again.
  6. The energy price rise is the big one and the immediate one. But then if you have a £250,000 Mortgage that rises when your fix finishes that is another £112.50 a month on top of everything else. My water went up from £36 to £57 per month a while back. I am not sure about food without boasting I just go in and pick up what I want I am not on a tight budget but if you are a family of 4 and on a budget that is going to hurt. I do eat out quite a bit not in flash places more pub curb I have noticed how much more that is costing. It all adds up. Filling up the car is £10 more expensive than it was two months ago. Wages must rise or things will not get paid.
  7. A week is a short time to see a change. However you might be right in the 80's it turned on a sixpence we did have double miras ending at the time and a big rise in IR so there was a distinct reason. Maybe this time it is just sentiment turning due to the whole economic outlook and raging inflation that is stating to bite people. I look at myself having had a few shocks this week with how everything is going up. Last Sunday I was saying rent's are rising , people are queuing to buy there is nothing on the market , we are in different times to the late 80's a much larger population , money flowing in from abroad. This week I looked at fixing my Gas and Electric once my fixed tariff ends at the end of the month, the figures quoted are 3x what I am paying now. My fixed mortgage finishes in 3 months looking at the new rates to re fix it will add about £100 a month to my costs and I don't have a large mortgage. I have a good income from working part time and pensions , no debt other than the mortgage but I thought OUCH ! So how will it be for people with two children, a large mortgage and a bit of debt ? Harsh. So this week my outlook is very different to last week. I still cannot say what will happen as I don't know but the few financial shocks from this week have changed my thinking.
  8. Nobody knows what will happen. In the late 80's they said it would stop going up but never crash. Then it crashed hard and fast. They said it would go back up due to X,Y and Z. It did not. Then they said it would never go back up due to X, Y and Z. Then it when back up regaining all its loses and more very fast. For the last 20 years people have been waiting for the next crash.
  9. What does that mean ? A week is a very short time to say that a frenzy has stopped. They could have had a quite week due to all manner of situations but you need longer than a week to determine the shape of the housing market.
  10. But there are other factors that we have now which we did not have back then. It is not just about wages and wage rises. The huge amount of equity in older peoples housing is now coming down the generations. Back in the 70's there was far less wealth built up in peoples houses when they died which was split between more children. I know quite a few 50's couples who have both inherited half a house when their own house was paid off or almost paid off. The population has increased by how many millions since the 70's ? The UK especially the big cities like London and Manchester have become havens for the wealth of people not even living here to park their money in property.
  11. Yes I was a kid in the early 70's what I do remember is the doom and gloom of the miners strikes, power cuts the oil crisis and my parents talking about how much everything had gone up. It was quite grim for a kid who did not understand that my Dads wages were also rising. Anyone who took the plunge in the first few years of the decade would have been laughing by the end of it. The 15% IR that we had in 1980 would not have been a problem for them as by then their mortgage would have shrunk compared to their income. In a high inflation environment when taking out a mortgage the first few years are hard but get through them and it becomes easy. I did post on another thread recently is this a good time to take on mortgage debt if you believe we are in for some high inflation ? Maybe in 10,15 or 20 years when discussing housing costs will people be saying things like " well so and so was lucky they bought in the early 20's and their debt was inflated away.
  12. Yes People forget the high unemployment of the early 90's. Which really must have the biggest impact of the lot. Interest rates are irrelevant if you have no job.
  13. I did hear it said a few times that it was harder for someone signing on at the Job Centre for the first time to get awarded £73 a week than it was to obtain a £50,000 Covid Business Loan.
  14. Win What ? You said we are part of Nature now we have beaten nature.
  15. Depends how much they owe. I.O. BTL mortgages are still going to be cheap if IR rise.
  16. Who writes these articles ? I have just copied and pasted the below which states the -71 per cent drop part of the article but TBH it makes no sense at all. While Westminster has enjoyed some of the largest annual increases, the borough’s WC2E postcode has also endured the largest market decline. With an average sold price of £3.48m in 2021, sold prices have plummeted by -71 per cent on an annual basis – wiping almost £8.5m off the price paid by prime London homebuyers.
  17. Do only Boomers watch these type of shows ? I know many Boomers especially the second half of the Generation 1955-1965 who did not do that at all. Many of them were burnt or saw others burnt in the 80's crash. They bought a house to live in and with memories of that crash paid down debt they were quite reluctant to stretch themselves. People born after the Boomers who are to young to have been burnt are more likely to be the ones who stretched themselves as they only know HPI. I was talking to a guy in his early 40's recently and when mentioning the 80's crash he looked at me as if I had two heads.
  18. Basically yes. Many Boomers just had a job and bought a house. What went on around them with the Banks and Government policy was really nothing to do with them. They could not implement policy and change Government direction.
  19. Due to people living in unsuitable accommodation to list a few B&B's ,Hostels, Beds in Sheds, Overcrowded housing, Not fit for human housing, Sofa surfing, Still with parents in their 30's and 40's, Vans. Many of the above come on the list of hidden homeless. Do you think we have the right amount of housing then ?
  20. Didn't a lot of call centres relocate back to the UK as the standard of English just did not work? I was on the phone to the Bank a while back and it was impossible to have a proper conversation as the person and I just could not understand each other. I put the phone down and then tried again this time speaking to someone over here what a relief. Another time I was driving without insurance due to a mistake made after speaking with an Indian call centre.
  21. I missed your point a while back when you said Gen X was part of the problem , you missed mine when I said the Government past and present have fked the young. I have always acknowledged how bad it is for the young. You have missed it. Yes I agree things need to change. So my Question which I have already posted if the Boomers Ganged up and took everything why can't the younger people Gang up and change it back ? Answer they can't just as the Boomers never did. Agreed and the Government use the NIMBY'S as an excuse not to build enough houses. People do care about the planet not everyone but people do people from all generations.
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