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Everything posted by frankvw

  1. Without QE, many of them would have been bust. Even Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan converted themselves, with overnight government assistance, into commercial banks so that they could access the tax-payer banking bailouts. The tax payer is paying for quantative easing and proping up bankrupt entities who, perversely, then accentuate the conditions that have caused the housing crisis. To get the thread back on track, shavedchimp posted this article: https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/82uice/thousands_of_homes_in_vancouver_have_been/ It has merits but in a global scale, I see the simultaneous 'independence' of several central banks around the world (UK, US, Japan, Germany, ECB, changes in regulation to Central Banks of CHina, Hong Kong, SIngapore, Malaysia, Australia, Canada and NZ), at the same time, as having the obvious link to the resulting affect on house prices via credit changes . Especially as it was lobbied by the political, neo-liberal wing of politics that also swepped across the western world at the same time. Again, refer to the graph. Even in the S.E. here, population and housing supply conditions have not changed anywhere near the level of house prices, in an elementary supply-demand analysis. The big thing that did change since 1997 was central bank 'independence' and an explosion of debt and quantative easing. According to plan.
  2. This is coming from an elementary stance of supply and demand economics. Now try that analysis from a cartel market analysis. Persimmon, Gallaird, Redrow, Taylor-Wimpey, RBS, Lloyds, Natwest, Abbey NAtional, Nationwide,. Government backed Cartels. Simple supply and demand analysis no longer operates as in a rudimentary supply-demand model.
  3. Especially in a rigged market. Say the state is explicitly backing an asset class through bailouts and tax-payer subsidies. Effectively saying that this is a risk free punt with incredible returns. Pretty much unlimited demand then as you will never match supply and demand. It doesn't how much you build in the S.E. (unless you concreted over the whole place), with a government backed Cartel of Corporate scale house builders and Banks who can never go bust and will always be bailed out, you ensure HPI and competitive bidding. Now, who would benefit most from such a policy....
  4. The Maybot is a strange character. I firmly believe she is just an office politician running on autopilot. You think she would have learned, after the furore and stink she caused before, after saying to a nurse on Question Time, that there 'is no magic money tree' (the banks and Carney winking in background). You think she would have learned from that one. Evidently not. She does it again. I don't think she can show empathy in a normal, humanistic way.I really don't think that she would see her rehearsed speech as possibly patronising and inflammatory to many folk up and down the country. Whether she believes it or not, or even does something completely different behind the scenes, it's a key skill required of any politician to 'appear' to 'fell your pain' in a genuine, sympathetic way. Even if you are lying through your teeth. She just doesn't have it. She may as well give Corbyn the door keys now.
  5. Central Banks are also a global problem. Ever wondered why the UK, US, Japan, Germany and ECB all synchronized 'independence' in 1997? Strange they all did it at the same time. Almost like it's a collusion. You know, as the 'independent' central banks are private companies (yes, including the BoE, despite the legalease you will hear about the 'Bonds' held in Civil Service trust). Since 1997, worldwide debt levels have exploded to levels never seen before in world history. Particular cheerleaders are the World Bank , the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) who co-ordinate with the UN to insist that Developing nation economies also favour an 'independent' Central Bank policy and privatization policies linked to their organisations. The same organisations who are widely believed to be backed by the same folk who own the controlling shares in 'independent' central banks. Of course, you are not allowed to know precisely because various freedom-of-information acts have been refused over the years on the basis of 'National Security'. You can bet though, anybody who can control the money supply, debt and asset values, pretty much runs everything. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/04/global-debt-explodes-eye-watering-pace-hit-170-trillion/ Quotation: Thomas Jefferson, President of the United States from 1801 to 1809: "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered.... I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies.... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
  6. The slam dunk for this was the credit freeze in 2008. With very little credit, house prices started to fall like a stone, until the bank of england started printing money. Could 90% of the population afford a house without credit? Probably not. There is also many studies of nations with rapidly rising populations that have experienced house price falls at various times and places. Again, in an elementary school-lab analysis, this shouldn't happen. By bailing out the banks, ZIRP, money printing and various tax-payer backed schemes to prop-up the profits of the big house-builders (who have effectively being given a cartel market stranglehold through back-door No.10 access), there is no meaningful market. The pricing and market mechanism has all but been destroyed.
  7. +1 weatherspoons. It's standard pub grub, well priced, often with a drink factored into many deals. Does what it says on the tin. Where I work at the moment I have one nearby and use it for lunch quite a lot. Place two doors down? Family run Chinese restaurant with all you can eat lunch buffet for £7. Honestly, the food is waaay better than any of the high street chains for as much as you can eat! Waagamma is the only chain group I kinda quite like.
  8. It seems every big brand, high street restaurant-chain I have googled is operating under a venture capital fund. Probably explains why so many traditionally run family restaurants have disappeared (apart from the Indian and Chinese who are still holding out). In particular, I mourn the disappearance of the traditional Italian cafes and restaurants. They always offered authentic, good value food (cooked fresh by Italians, not pre-packaged, processed poison served in meager proportions as in the chain places). I tend to think it's a symptom of the destruction of Capitalism over the past decade by the Bank of England with ZIRP and money printing, Venture capital funds get priority access to cheap central bank funding and offshore tax shenanagans through back door access to MPs and convoluted accounting. The result? Crappy soviet style food processing. The Bank of England has a lot to answer for and it's not just destruction of the housing market, pensions and savings. It's the entire economy in the long run. God help us if we don't get back to some kind of historically normal economy. The pricing mechanism has been destroyed but hey! The government can always bail it out again and again and again on the back of the tax payer, right? Pizza is definitely the worst. £14 for some bread and cheese with a sprinkle of mystery meat!??! You can make at home fresh, with a pre-made dough base from the super market, stacked as high as you like with fresh ingredients, for £2-3, 10 mins preparation time, 15 mins to cook.
  9. Unintended consequences indeed. I lived in L.A for a decade. There is a major housing problem there and while never proved conclusively, it is thought that the spike and escalation in wild fires around LA county has been arson. Disgruntled folk just causing mayhem. If you attempt to corner people, it may not work out as smoothly as you think. Humans are strange creatures. Even Chimps are observed to mentally deteriorate in captivity. I kind of think that these kinds of social issues led to the turmoil of 70's UK anarchism and social unrest. I know it sounds kooky but I would take as a signal any sudden increase in general vandalism and graffiti. You know the adage, 'if you have nothing to lose, you lose it!'. That was a core plank of Thatchersim, particularly home ownership, as a rebuttle to 70's societal breakdown. I always thought the books 'The Third Wave' and 'The Third Turning' were a very good read in this respect and their unpinning, long term, on Elliot Waves.
  10. The cardboard box may not be an option either. California, L.A. in particular, have a huge homelessness problem so the solution..... ban rough sleeping and sleeping in vehicles! People are given a $100 ticket (imprisonment for non-payment) while their vehicle or pocessions are seized. Coming to town near you soon. Victorian workhouses for the poor the next stage, slave labour to pay tribute to RBS, Lloyds, Persimmon, Taylor-Wimpey, Galliard, etc.,
  11. No, but they will still threaten you with prison if you don't pay tax to prop-up their corrupt banker and house-builder corporation friends with your tax money. Pretty much sounds like slavery to me.
  12. Well. I raised this in another thread in more depth but this is demographics kicking in now. The Tory core vote is the older generation who have benefited from HPI policies but are now dying off. Inheritance will not address the huge imbalances either, the figures just won't matchup either way without future generations taking a sizeable hit in living standards but still expected to service the welfare state. That isn't going to work. More importantly, the Tories rely on people in their 30's and 40's entering middle age with assets like pensions and housing. You know the old adage, socialist when you're young, Tory when you're old. We now have significant and exponentially rising numbers of those traditional Tory core voters entering that key demographic age without assets. They have no motivation to swing to Tory, the Tory vote will collapse under gravity. They will no longer have a middle age swing. It will take a bit of a while yet though. Housing is a long term, illiquid asset that operates in generational time scales. They can't turn to traditional Conservative saving, investing and home buying policies with the legacy of Cameron-Blair neo-liberalism and the debt levels this has created. This is why I believe the focus is slanted more towards debt and demand over supply, even though supply is an issue (that may abate or increase, depending on whether the EU or UK under goes a significant economic hit first).
  13. It's all just hot air. We live in an era now where politicians make vague speeches about doing 'something', people say 'At last! They are doing 'something', subsequently they do 'nothing', the plebs get restless again that 'nothing' was done, then another speech is made that this time they are really 'doing something', plebs say again 'At last! They are doing something!', etc., etc., etc., etc., It's at the stage now where people need to turn up at Westminster or Local Council offices with pitchforks and torches because NOTHING will change until that time. People are caught in this loop unfortunately. It's also weird how folk don't question this central vs local authority narrative, They keep blaming each other. We know local authorities DO have central policy restrictions placed on them that limit their ability to act. Equally though, nobody in an area where building is possible wants new building, let alone more infrastructure (unless it is just for their use). However, this speech is just a deflection. Supply is not really the issue. Credit and government manipulation has been the problem. Once Buy-to-let IO, foreign investment, zero interest rates, help-to-buy, REITS, BoE money printing are thrown into the equation, there is unlimited demand. You will never match supply as long as government and BoE policy is too inflate the housing market for the benefit of selected investors. Notice in 2008 when credit dried up? House prices starting falling like a stone until BoE started printing money. Same with 2012-ish when prices starting falling again, Osborne unleashed more government subsidy into the housing market with help-to-buy and REITS. We have since seen reports showing the large house builders increased prices nearly 1:1 by the amount of government subsidies poured into the market by those tax-payer funded policy. Including their executives (like persimmon) awarding themselves 10's of millions in bonuses. Directly on the back of tax-payer funded schemes. We are now in a parallel 1970's universe. Instead of unions and heavy industry, now government subverts markets and subsidises offshore venture-capital funds, banks and corporate scale house builders with tax payer house prices with houses used as the economic basis of the entire economy. Also, what was that Teresa May speech the other day? Classic point. An hour of vague nothings that left you no clearer on anything but apparently she's doing 'something'. Uuugh. This is the crap I'm talking about.
  14. This is quite an old story now. It really came to a head with Heygate Estate in London. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/04/bailiffs-death-knell-heygate-estate This article was 2013. Eventually, the developer didn't sell any of the properties for the originally agreed 'affordable housing' schemes, when given original planning permission. I think there was one of those 'Gentrification-Cleansing' documentaries made about this one that became quite popular. Something like 1,200 council tenants evicted, often ejected to areas way out of London or up North, with below-market value purchase figures for those who had taken up 'right-to-buy' (effectively ejecting those folk from London too). Since then, it's estimated about 25% only of the £500-£1.5M flats sold are actually occupied and have been used as foreign owned speculation assets. It has led to a backlash that has currently halted the same developers (think they are Qataris) from doing the same to the old Elephant and Castle shopping center in the same area. There is also growing protest about the Malaysian redevelopment of the nearby Batersea site, for similar reasons. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/06/shard-owners-seek-to-ban-protest-by-class-war-activist This fella and his associates have been a major protestor against these kind of redevelopments around London that, after winning planning permission to guarantee affordable home provision, then subsequently provide zero affordable home schemes or build-to-rent housing authority provision after legal appeals.
  15. Jaysus. Few days with a few inches of snow and few degrees below zero and it's 'the day after tomorrow'. I heard an American saying the other day "this is a mild winter day in Philadelphia". I remember landing in a plane in Montreal when it was -31C. Plane still landed, trains, trams and cars all going about there business. Still, as part of climate change propaganda, and local authorities p****g your taxes on expenses and salaries, instead of roads, transport and gritting, your grandchildren will read about the great 'beast of the east' in 2018 when mother nature turned the UK into a mad max arctic distopia. At least this time though there was actually some snow. We usually just get biblical prophecies in the media without any end result. We can now look forward to the first few days of summer, when the temps go over 25C, when the media start screaming again "UK will be Saharan within decade!", "Millions at risk of death by heat stroke!", etc., etc., If it's all such an impending disaster Mr Government, then maybe you should stop meddling and manipulating housing and printing money zimbabwe style so we don't get so many people homeless or folk living in inadequate , expensive housing, You know, let markets deliver suitable housing that people can afford and have shelter against 'climate change' ..... No, I though not......
  16. Just a note on structural changes high street vs online... I turned on an evening LBC show in the car the other evening. I only caught the guest in mid-piece but he was some sort of financial analyst who was citing sales data figures (not sure which ones), he was suggesting that online sales only reflected about a third of the falls we have seen in high street sales over the past 5 years. Something like online rising from 9% to 17% while high street over the same period fell around 25%. I only caught the show midway but it's an interesting one to flesh out in the 'favourite charts' thread. There is a raft of consumer sales data out there that could be stitched together to get a clearer picture.' Online sales' is becoming a bit like 'Brexit' or 'Unseasonal weather' as a catch all for many things without any deeper analysis in the business pages. Would be nice to get some solid data behind that idea.
  17. The other thing I notice is how, around the last decade or so, the traditional Italian family cafes that used to be quite ubiquitous, have vanished at an incredible rate. Places that served good, authentic meals at lunchtime then offered a reasonable early evening a la carte. About half the price of Jamie, treble the quality. Around here there used to be two back then, when I cam back to the UK a few years ago, one had been replaced by Nando, the other by a ZiZi.
  18. I wonder if Byron and Jamie would have ever got finance to start their ventures in a world of sane interest rates on loans and savings in a world where the BoE wasn't printing money? You know, capitalism and all that stuff.
  19. Of course, Blair, Adonis, Miller, all that crowd, will be on the airwaves saying 'see! It's Brexit's fault'. Truth is the same old story of government meddling and cronyism for a decade or two. The seeds were planted long ago. The Bank of England's stated primary mission is to surpress wage inflation. They lie about all other forms of inflation. The ONS even stripped out house price inflation from their targets during or house price and rent inflation era. Property has strangled the economy. As has the bank bailouts that will strangle the economy for another couple of decades to come still. So has BoE money printing. It's communist central control of the economy. Zimbabwe and Weimar are hardly credible economic policies to follow (unless you are corrupt and ultimately profiting from it yourself). And the folk who really own the BoE all have their main interests in the banking industry. Increased debt = increased profits. But it's pushed too far. God it's annoying when Blair turns up on the airwaves after the BTL IO monster he unleashed and tripled house prices in just under two terms. Worse when the gurning gobshite Osborne ("everyone loves a property boom") starts spewing his remainer bile in the standard. What about all the Europeans who came into the UK to feed BTL? I notice a lot of the arrivals in the last decade are mostly EE and Med folk working in some form of restaurant, catering, cabing or delivery. Our excellent low-tech service economy is built on sand. Coffee stores and chain cafes delivering orders on an app to BTL flat dwellers. It's a crap economic model and worse now, as you can bet, all the EE and Med workers who came now have legal right to stay and nothing to go back for. They probably can't retrain for anything susbstantive so now we will have a double whammy of increased welfare bills, more so when the grandparents also relocate. I heard a couple of euro deliveroo riders in a cafe the other day saying how all their freinds back home said the would be rich once they got their jobs in the UK but how the reality has turned out instead to be petty grim. What a mess. I guess a lot of Euro folk just never saw the bullcrap facade that is the money printing UK economy. Anyway, not to go off on a daily-mail like rant (I despise the Mail btw) but the UK was sold down the river by the past two decades of Blair and Cameron and it was obvious this is an unsustainable way to run an economy. It's nothing much to do with Brexit. The 'Rentier' economic model has been well documented for a couple of hundred years. What do they expect?
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