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paranoidmick

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Everything posted by paranoidmick

  1. I think you'll find that most people in UK "dont believe" Brown's/ONS "inflation figures" I'm not so sure the sheeple believe what they want to believe but all the things that matter to my cost of lkiving have gone up nearer 7% than 2% and i have received less than 3% pa increase in wages over past 4 years. Much of that sems to have been eaten away in stealth taxes. Any increase has to be halved because of taxes, pension contributions National Insurance etc. To me gas, electric, council tax, petrol have gone up whilst presumably DVD recorders and TVs from China have not. I suppose thats where a 2% inflation figure comes from but it is a complete joke. Wake up sheeple and smell the coffee :angry:
  2. I hate this country, the people are jerks, the cost of living is riduculous, the weather is crap, the roads are full, and public services are being destroyed. If I didn't have to have wait for my partner to qualify, I'd have left by now. It is sad, but that opinion of our UK is widespread. I have taken the decision to sell and have a place in central France where: The people are (contarry to popular british belief, friendly and helpful, as long as you try some conversation), The cost of living is far lower, (everything grows so a little self sufficiency is on the cards) The weather is great, shoort sharp winters for a roaring fire anbd seasons and long balmy summers The Roads are a joy to drive on Public services are very good (again ciontrary to British opinion -give me a FRench hospital everyt time compared with NHS We couldnt wait for my retireemnt so sold and rent over here, mortgage free over there and never been happier. Some of the bulls mock us STRs as hawks wishing for a HP collapse and waiting with greed to be financial vultures. Not for me, i am happier now not chasing the buck than i ever was, and my interest in this site is to confirm what i promised my other half would happen a seriou HPC. Ironically she doesnt care now either, there are other things in life, it is not a dress rehersal, you can take the UK and stick it where the sun dont shine, er thats the UK isn't it?
  3. How do so called experts get away with writing this interlectually devoid and economically ridiculous tripe? This is all complete nonsense. By picking France as a place with a greater chance of crash than the uk, it just is totally and utterly absurd. I bought a large home central France in a half an acre, in coutryside but close to amenities for less than £120,000. It would not be deemed a FTB property in France but FTBs cant buy a studio flat near to where i currently rent in the UK. How, in a country that rigourously checks income, (No buy to Lie there) to check that disposable income, not earnings, is sufficient to service the mortgage, can there be a risk of a HPC no mind a greater risk than the UK where lending has been orresponsible at best and criminal at worst. The UK market is in free fall and the VIs do not want the sheeple to know. The anecdotal back up is there and anyone considering this twaddle as factual and reliable, open your eyes........ There are now 4 houses for sale within 250 meters of my rental place. Three are brand new and have been ready for sale for almost a year, one has been up for 7 months. Tell the developer and the private owner that prices are going up and they would laugh in your face.
  4. As an average Joe poster as opposed to many of you intelligent academic types, i seek some rationale to support my theory that Nationwides success is not on the back of a booming house market. Since not a lot is selling, time to sell what does is (or must feel like) infinity for sellers, hidden price drops to get whatsales there are etc, this does not add up. The theory what i have (as monty python would say) is that its all debt consolidation, building up to big trouble. Do there figures braek down to show this? Or am i just being paranoid?
  5. Relative STR toemmigrate and things didn't work oyut visa wise. Now decided to stay in UK. Problem is relative tells me that "prices in Burnham have not stopped rising, nothing stays on market long and even crap houses are more than they can afford" Where i am prices still look high in property pages of local rags but (see Aylesbury topic) nothing is selling unless considerably unfder the original silly sales figure, or some muppet has been watching Krusty and Phil too much (IMHO) So anyone actually know what is happening in Burham, if it is bucking a seemingly obvious National trend? I weould love to give my relative some factual reality on that area as depression is setting in . i think that recession is about to set it and therefore am not too worried unless they get panicky and mortgage themselves silly.
  6. Why bother? Its so behind reality it doesnt actually give current information. Whatever you are trying to hide will be ancient history by the time that someone can see it! Take a small (and i mean small in every sense) development in Berkhamsted, Herts. Three pokey terraced "town houses" sold at the end of last year. They were up for £425000 (expensive place where "prices never fall". so i am told by the affluent residents, who are imune to any economic changes because "its Berkhamsted". You cannot find out what all three actually sold for, on Nethousprices.com, but they did. Now for whatever reason, (furniture too big, unemployment, business gone under, mortgage more than they thought, who knows), the middle one is advertised at £375,000 on property section of local paper. Nethousprices.com doesnt indicate the fall in value ie the house price crash that is in progress. Why is it that i can see a crash but Berkhamsted residents cant? Even if it was purchased for, let's say £400,000 in December there was almost certainly a deal, stamp duty paid, solicitors refunded etc etc by developer(reduced costs which wont appear on nethousprices.com) The current seller surely will have to take a big, big loss. They aint going to get the asking price. But if we wait for 2 years and look on Nethousp[ices we might find out. Its as much use as a chocolate fireguard! The HPC? Its really on, the believers were right, and the sheeple they shall inherit the debt caused by their own greed and stuipidity........or am i just being paranoid?
  7. Well its only an advert for greenhouses ....................but does it not say something about how the term House price crash is becoming accepted in everyday language?
  8. "Look into my eyes , not around the eyes, look into my eyes, when i click my fingers you will think that House prices are rising" That must be it pure VI spin hypnosis on the masses. I rememer being a young PC standing facing some very pleasant (used to give them my packed lunch) miners at the time of the miners strike. Whilst they read the front page of 'the Miner' papare with headlines to the effect that No Coal is moving in Nottinghamshire and an article that accused the govt of using library pictures on news broadcasts, behind them and clearly visible was a train pavcked with coal makingh its way from the colliery. Scargill said it so it must be true. They believed what they wanted to believe. I find an analgy between that blind faityh in a man with a hypnotic oratory ability to the sheeple faith in VI spin. Anyone who is getting nervous, thinking about commiting themselves to financial suicide by buying now, look around you see the truth. The anecdotes on this sight are the reality of the situation. Mine for the day, is that 3 brand new houses sit with multiple EA For Sale signs in Cheddington, a commuter village with walking distance access to the Euton mainline. They have been sitting there for 5 months waiting for someone to pay the silly prices. But no one has. They still sit. I guess that they sit on land occupied previously by 2 houses, lets say purchased at £150,000 each (very low estimate, lucky to get a flat in this part of the world for that money). Assume £100000 each to build and that by my simple maths makes a total of £600,000 sitting there on sale for around £900,000 in total. At what point will the builder realise that he has to knock thousands off to stop paying interest or loosing alternative investment opportunity? Even the professional in this case must be expecting that VI spin will at least get the asking price , after all prices are rising , arn't they? Methinks that reports of the death of the HPC are very much exagerated.
  9. Chatting to a friend who's son is a bricklayer working for £150 a day not so long ago in London. Turns out there is no demand for his services at that rate of pay any more because East Europeans are doing a days graft for £40. Some obvious implications; On those wages the migrant worker will not be buying property in the UK- No increased demand Previously well paid young man cannot now buy here -No increased demand Situation presumably extends to several trades with similar outcome. It has been VI spin to suggest that the increase in population will fuel the continuation of HP growth. Here on HPC that view was contested and as with pretty much every bear prediction on this site, it has, or it will come true. There are some basic realities out there that do not need graphs or in depth knowledge of economics to understand. We are a coutry in debt with a population in debt. Paying that off will not be easy with a recession in progress, (and it is), HPs falling (and they are) unemployment rising (just look at the business pages). I would like to thank the intelligent people on this site and their words of wisdom which allowed me to make the decision to sell and rent instead. It is proving to be the most sensible thing i have ever done. For those who stugglke with the detailed economic analysis, just look around and listen. The signs are everywhere. Patience will be rewarded. Th ings are going to accelerate this year and the opportunity to buy your own home when it is cheaper than renting may not be that far away.
  10. Half an hour ago on BBC, 'Wwatchdog' type tv with banks being critisised for irresponsible lending and misselling of payment insurance . One individual highlighted was unemployed and ill prior to bank lending and recommending useless(in those circumstances )insurance. One debt of around £100,000 with no means or hope of repaying, bank agreed to write off all unsecured debt in that case. I only caught the end of it but it seems that my predictioons are beginning to materialise. One of my first posts related to hearing that banks were making provision for writing off debt at the back end of 2004. Bancrupties soaring, prices falling VIs no longer able to play the king Canute card. My predictions are on course, the one that worries me the most, for the state of the economy, is the extent of the fall, 30% minimum to 50% in some cases falls in HPs. At the risk of sounding like a scratched record, its really going to be messy out there and i take no pleasure from being right when so many people are going to get badly burned. Divorce, depression, bancruptcy, suicides, its not going to be a happy New year for those who were to slow/ignorant/ignorant to see what has been coming, or am i just beong paranoid?
  11. Strolled to my newsagent for the sunday paper, and, in doing so walked past 3 houses, brand new, 2 semi 3 beds and a smallish 5 bed. All look nice outside, heating gioing so thats a nice additional expense for the developer. I'd say they look better built than most. They are within a 10 minute walk of Cheddington Railway station with access to London Euston in around 40 minutes. Well located well built, on with 3 agents and have not sold despite the fact they have been ready for occupancy for several months. We moved here at the beginning of October and they had clearly been ready for some time then. They are not selling. The semis are priced at £289,950 (just looked on the agents web site- one bedroom has a 5 foot something dimension!!!!!) They will not sell for that price or anywhere near it, perhaps someone with local knowledge might know if they have already been reduced? I would guess that a tad under the £250,000 stamp duty threshold might see some action otherwise they will stay in virginal condition for some time. I would not pay even that for such a small space. I rent a far larger property for less than the IO mortgage payments on £250,000. The point of this tale is If these wont, cant sell, just like dozens of properties that have for sale signs within a 5 mile radius and If people i know have taken savage reductions to sell (£45,000 and £60,000 respectively in last 3 months) then where do the VI's get their HP increases from? They are false, misleading and an attempt at manipulating the sheeple who satnd to lose the most, scared FTB's who dont want to miss the boat, for gods sake dont do it FTB,s its the HP equivillant of the bleeding Titanic. Why is there no scrutiny of such fraudulent claims. I'm sorry, I know its Sunday morning and all that, but claims of increases in house prices are complete B**locks. Tell the hoards of frustrated sellers that prices are rising and see the reaction you will get. VI's should be held to account for the losses of the (albeit economic idiots), that buy in this climate. Right thats it I'm off to scour the property pages that will no doubt tell me what a great time it is to buy, yeah right! :angry:
  12. I'm on balance more bear than bull. People I've known over the years have become wealthier than me have tended to be fairly unanalytical. I think my tendancy has been to overanalyise opportunities and talk myself out of them, which is why in the last few years I have made a concerted effort to take more risks, AND FRANKLY NOT TO FULLY EXPLORE THE INS AND OUTS OF ANY NEW OPPORTUNITY. Bearish types need to recognise that taking the cautious bearish route throughout life has down - side. Very true in some respects but i am cautious and a good job too. Allow me to provide an anedote that still casuses me embarrasment. An old 'friend', and very successful businessman, rang me up out of the blue several years ago. He told me he had made more money in the last week than he had made in any month previously and quoted some serious cash profit. He would not explain how but just asked if i was prepared to gamble £20. He would pick me up ands take me out for a meal for the £20 so it was not completely lost money even if i did not want to take part in the money making scheme. The car park of the venue had some seriously expensive cars, porsches were 10 a penny and Astins, maserattis, you name it featured prominently. We had a meal along with probably 2-300 others, (crap food like school diner) and then were ushered into a large hall. An American razamatazz, Billy Graham type, hyped entrance of the main man occurred, some in the audience clapped enthusiastically and sheeple joined in, (not me, never have followed the heard). The pyramid scheme was explained with superb almost hypnotic skill and the figures appeared to make sense. All you needed was £3000 some of which your 'introducer' got, his 'introducer a cut and so on. All I had to do was get others interested and then I would rake it in. I would not comit myself at the time but remember being mesmorised and gave it some consideration. I did not think my powers of persuasion sufficient but more importantly I was concerned that others might lose money. The scam was highlighted in the national press two weeks after the event, and i was a very relieved man indeed to have not analysed it in the cold light of day and made the right, reasoned decision. I honestly believe that todays FTBs are effectively the exposed bottom of the biggest pyramid selling scam of all time. Those that have made money are OK but a whole raft of people who have: bought in the past 2 years bought with interest only mortgages Lied to buy borrowed sums from mums and dads moved in with others speculated using MEW from BTL property in last 3 years will all be wishing they had taken the time to be more analytical and established the facts. Those that were not aware of this site will never forgive themselves for their lack of research. I've said it before and i'll say it again, 40-50% reductions are a real probability if not near certainty. It's going to be a bloodbath, repossession, bancruptcy, divorce, suicide...................am i being paranoid or just perceptive, begins with the same letter so maybe its about the same........................
  13. 20%? Its going to be more than that. 70% plus is perfectly possible in some places. I think you are right, and the Irish crash, so close to home will bring on the same in the UK. However bad our economy is , it fails to match the EU funded, non industrial and non manufacturing Irish economy. Therefore i see it as 50-70% in Ireland and 30-50% here. I am anticipating such falls around October 2006, whem i intend to buy. I will be looking for one of the real -50% bargains that will be out there from hoards of the poor reposessed. I take no satisfaction from profitting from others financial misfortune, but most of their demise will be a mixture of ignorance stubborness and greed. Those in seriousd debt should sell now before it gets really bad...........
  14. Berkhamsted in Herts is an expensive area, heres one 5 bed on a good sized plot not particularly attractive but a decent sized gaff. Itsa on for £700,000. Its problem is an ugly massive water tower sitting nearby. However a new estate agent on the block has started trying to amuse its potential clients with odd descriptions. This one may takesome beating bearing in mind that we really are talking about something that will affect tthe properties ability to sell in a very quiet marketr.... "Tower close is situated off shooters way, watched over by that wonderful gothic water tower..." The same property section had a bit from a local VI saying that "the market had stabuilised but FTBs were still finding it difficult to enter the market". So there you have it everythings rosy, but the pyramid scam is dead, and we should all look for the ugliset feature to live beneath, perhaps they should build a new estate under the auspicious and speactaculat grandeur of the M1 Bridge over the M25...................
  15. Heavy session last night, i nearly dropped my whisky night cap when i heard the 'House price bubble' words coming from Mr Brown. I awoke thinking that it must have been a dream , and that i really had drunk too much. My sunday paper did not quote those magic words but through this site i find that it was not just a dream. If he has admitted that the bubble is a problem, then the masses will have to open up their eyes.
  16. 2006 will see the first real significant falls in prices and inflationary pressures will have helped to bring back HP towards long term levels 5.25% IRs £ 142000 for price
  17. Think you have missed the point of my little tale. 'Sold' signs mean nothing at present. Some go up, sit in place for 3 months and metomorphise into 'For sale' signs- or disappear altogether with no move having taken place. That distorts the naive individuals' view of the market. Yes, some property is selling (its a mad mad world) but, sold signs which are sold subject to contract which fall through give a distorted picture of the market. On the small estate where i currently rent(about 40 detached houses in all) three properties fall into this catagory whilst in addition this house still shows 'For Sale' whilst viewers are coming to inspect. Since we moved in 15 months ago, i have seen 5 'for sale' boards, 3 have, at some time, changed to 'Sold' but only one has resulted in an actual exchange taking place. I want to stay renting whilst it is cheaper than buying , but it worries me not where i rent. Price is the key driver. For similar properties i will select the cheapest, that means competition for the LLs and lower monthly cost for me. There is no shortage of property. I dont mind staying in this property if the price is right, otherwise i'm off. I negotiated a £200 to begin with and if i dont get a better deal i will seek a landlord who will want 18 months with no voids. My prediction is that 18 months on, the prices out there will have reached a sane level following the collapse of the Denial stage,and buying will be a sensible option. I have found 3 alternative rental properies 1, 2 and 5 miles away respectively (having moved 1.2 miles on the last occasion-limited upheaval to family). Staying here at a silly price would be sensible, after all alterernatives are always available at least one of the current ones has been advertised for 3 months+. If i get a significant cost saving of £2-300 off the rental whilst i stay(as the LL would be losing for every week the place doesnt sell if i move out at the end of the month) then great , its money in my pocket. Is that not a victory for me?. Actually the post was not meant to be victiolic, merely an observation of the times and how they are a-changing. What should my LL do? Take whats on offer or cut off nose to spite face? My post was also trying to illustrate that rents are there to be negotiate because there is so much property available, supply and demand and all that.
  18. I posted my anecdotal tale of surprise 2 months ago. We tried to negotiate a further £100 pm reduction for another years contract (after securing a £200 reduction when we signed last year-Are you reading TTRTR?). LL said 'no'. we give 3 months notice and bloody hell he sells the thing in just 4 weeks, flying in the face of my opinion of the market. Now we have been asked to allow a viewing because the sale has fallen through. I do not know the reason but its all off! I mean who in their right mind would buy now or anytime soon? I'm not in my right mind, paranoid you see, and even i wouldn't be that mad! I have my eyes on other properties but am thinking about renting month by month, but not for the amount that the LL wants, he will get nobody on a short term basis and will be out of pocket every week that this sits empty. Now anyone have any suggestions as to how cheeky i should be? £200 less £300 less perhaps even 50% off. TTRTR how about you, any thoughts? Perhaps he should try to raise the rent, that might not work though, not in this climate. There are three houses we are considering as alternatives 2 have indicated a willingness to drop £200 but I have not broached the subject third due to this change of circumstance. Shortage of housing my a£5e, Time to raise the rents likewise. Off to stick some pencils up my nose , put some underpants on my head and say wibble, but still not mad enough to buy!!!!!!
  19. The STRs slipped out the back door whilst everyone was watching the propaganda movie. Those who stayed are starting to smell smoke in the building, and are slowly rising from their seats to begin the stampede to the exits. Unfortunately, there will be casualties. Very apt analogy Smell the fear, that captures the situation very well. It was hard to STR when the world and his dog thought we had lost the plot (june 2004), but from where i'm sitting it was the right, non sheep, thing to do at the perfect time. Nothing around here has sold for months at 2004 levels, the few things that are moving are around 10%+ cheaper (expensive part of the world, that represents £30000+ reductions for decent semis or any detached). That reduction will continue to fall and there will be a stampede. This HPC will be no different that the last ones in terms of % reductions, what is very, very different, and will bring on those casualties you talked of, is the massive unprecedented volume of personal debt! I am not comfortable with the fact that so many are going to suffer, so many dreams are going to be shattered, so many people will have to shelve plans for early retirement. (singing pig emmigrant hopefuls shows that tears are now being shed, it will get a lot worse.)
  20. He states that the number of people looking for rental is high. Is that not possibly an indication that when people do sell they will not buy because they know things are going to get a lot cheaper? Are there any statistics that would give an indication of this as a current trend, it could affect the market significantly.
  21. Having completed a year in rental I decided that i would change property as I can do better for cheaper and with a university bound child we dont need a 4th bedroom. I was suprised, not that the landlord decided to sell, but that he recieved an offer within 6 weeks, which is very quick in this market. I overheard the buyer and estate agent talking as they were looking around and it seems that it was purchased for 355,000 whereas the asking price was 385. They seem to think it is a bargain but is a plasterboard box that the big bad woolf could blow over and needs a lot of work £20.000+ to get it to a standard that i would need if it were my own(kitchen needs to be changed bathrooms are tired and flooring and windows have seen better days. Talking with a colleague at work he has just purchaced a £400,000 place for 360 and the vendor actually part exchanged because the colleagues couldnt find a buyer (several sales fell through). The point of these tales is to emphasise to those who feel that the crash will not happen that it has already begun. These may not be the reductions that many of us confidently expect, (my bet is 30% or more), but the realisation of equity is a lot less than either vendor would have achieved last year. £30,000 and £40,000 are massiver sums of money in anyones book. My area is one that is considered affluent, yet in an adjacent road there are 9 houses which have had for sale signs up for several months with only one showing sold. On my estate there have been three sales this year (including the one i'm in). Three remain unsold since March or before. i assume that the vendors wish to wait till they achieve their asking prices, oh dear, long wait then! I am going to do a deal on the next rental, by paying 12 months up front. The market will be significantly lower then or i will eat Kirsty's hat. I expect however that there will be 6 to 12 months after that before the real bottom appears, and i for one have no intention of buying until that bottom, and some sanity in HP rteturns. Have faith those who cannot yet see the light.
  22. Best post for ages, and to the witty replies 2nd and 3rd best in that order. After months of trying to work out the graphs and economic theory along comes something that makes sense of the whole thing. I now understand or as they say in scotland "aye ken"
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