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advicewelcome

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  1. Not so sure. There has been increasing city density globally. I suspect most cities have a few powerful freeholders who can get the ears of central governement more easily then regional centres (particularly when they detect their assets are deflating) . The increasing money spend on pedestrianisation and cycling routes within Central London could make it more desirable. I suspect London has "concentration of freeholders" - meaning a few foreign or local parties own swathes of the residential/commercial properties leasing to consumer/companies- whereas that regional areas probably have individual residential owner-occupiers who are freeholders of their patch - this changes the ability of the area to transform. On the flip side, increasing transportation options into central hubs (cross rail) and digitisation (video conferencing) may make central areas or presences within them less of a requirement.
  2. Flagged this a couple of weeks ago in this thread... ... would we all agree the London volumes ramped up and then fell of a cliff edge after the BTL tax changes (followed by Brexit vote) - the stats are agreeing with that. I sense that those people would be have been suckered into a trap of escalating prices with a tax deadline to create urgency, and then off a cliff edge. Maybe they will be offloading in the near future as interest rates/tax changes start to bite. If the bite is acute, hoping the same stampede out of London housing which will mean it will dip below its market value with an over correction at some point for a period of time. The point in the last posts I was trying to make was that unless true transactions volumes hit a reasonable amount - you have no idea what the value of the trade-able commodity in that market is really worth (in this cases houses). I don't know what that magic volume number is - if I did, I would keep on eye on that, and then we would know that the average pricing is now more reflective of the reality.
  3. Above does not mean a lot without volume data. The longer the mexian standoff between buyers and sellers, the more the variances once things get going transactionally. Land Reg dataset is probably reliable, even though it does have issues with incl. all types of sales and I assume a two month odd lag before the solictors get around to registering the sale with Landreg after exchange). I look for data tallying with other data sets. Seems contradictory with the below analysis I posted up before: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/property-prices/london/ Kensington & Chelsea is showing a 20% increase in value over last year in that analysis. But transactions numbers in April 2018 are down to all time low of 90 transactions (compared to 482 transactions in the pre-Brexit pre-BTL-tax crazy days of March 2016).  Anyone can provide an explanation for such variances?
  4. ... ah ok. The terms "liquid", "elastic" and "high-transnational" markets may be worth thinking about here for a sec. I guess liquid means easily 'buyable' and 'sellable', which means they price is very 'elastic' to supply and demand - we are probably agreed that a minimum transnational volume is probably needed in order to attain reasonable assurance around 'market value' of any trade'able commodity in any marketplace (in this case house prices). Sure, people will buy and sell at all sorts of prices, but to attain the market value, I guess we need just enough averages to be reasonably sure of the market value. Maybe I am missing something in the Nationwide Report - but I don't see anything which alludes to the overall transnational volumes they are basing their stats on - and this is fundamental right? And if this is the case, should I be cynical its debt-selling banks hyping the market price.
  5. .. AAAAllllrigteee... that clears that up. Or maybe not. Will need to google it before I reply. Just saying, if there are 5000 houses in a given area - can we say that unless 10% of them (for example) are transacting, we are unable to determine a valid house price value for that area? I know its a bit more complicated - 'cause in a house price rampant market (March 2016) there are a lot more price increases and therefore transactions and higher. However, considering we are now here, Mexican Standoff between buyers and sellers - is there a point at which we can say transactions numbers need to recovered to a certain level before we can be sure that the average transaction price is reflective of the true market value?
  6. Ta. OK, understand that seasonal adjustment would be done. But a drop from 482 transactions to 90 in one area of London, shows a market in stagnation. We know that from Foxton's share price crash (transactions are the life blood of agents). Any supplier-buyer commodity is going to achieve a "market price". When there are lots of transaction frictionessly executed the true market price is easily evaluated (stock market, ebay, etc..) The housing market is less elastic (chain dependencies, SDLC tax to pay, people have to physically move, takes long time to execute - even longer to show up on registries, people rent out instead and so on). I was asking at what point does market science say that the true market value has been achieved. E.g. Do we need 200 transactions in Kensington & Chelsea at minimum, to say that we are +/- 5% of the real market price. And does the current 90 transactions mean that we are +/-40% of the the real market price of a property. The stats say that prices in Kensington & Chelsea have gone up by 20% last year - but we know those figures are nonsense as transactions have vanished. Was just wondering what is the science and theories behind this which could be applied to the wider market.? Capiche?
  7. Did a cursory glance at this Bloomberg chart for London as Prime Central London can be incisive based on the ripple effect... https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/property-prices/london/ If I read it correctly - Kensington & Chelsea is showing a 20% increase in value over last year. But transactions numbers in April 2018 are down to all time low of 90 transactions (compared to 482 transactions in the pre-Brexit pre-BTL-tax crazy days of March 2016). Does this not demonstrate that unless you have a minimum number of transactions clearing within any market you cannot accurately determine the commodity value. Until the transaction volumes reach that critical minimum number, the true supply-demand market value will be heavily skewed. I wonder if there is any science about the minimum number of transactions required in order for commodity value to be considered largely +/- correct? - (the more the transactions the more accuracy would occur around that number).
  8. .. makes sense and maywell be the driver. I suppose there is paranoia in the air; there was not a lot of 'heads-up' to the average man on the street (who found himself queuing up outside of Northern Rock in the last crash). They don't tell us when things are going down, I assume top-down led Financial Institutions keep it stum to stop a run, so when it goes everyone vested in gets hit . There is a whiff of an inflection point after 10yrs QE/ZIRP and we are all left wondering what will break and where... and who will get burnt.
  9. Interesting when you see job postings like this appearing. They may have the plans and people already - but why need to hire now?... "RRP Business Analyst - Investment Banking - Recover and Resolution Planning As a member of the banks Recovery and Resolution Plan - you will be a key participant in the banks Resolution and Recovery Plan (RRP) effort. A Recovery and Resolution Plan or living will is a blueprint for saving or winding down a troubled bank without causing harm to retail depositors or the financial systems, and without relying on public funds. As a RRP Business Analyst, you will lead the book of work around business wind down financial modelling and forecasting, and partner with Finance, Risk, COO, and Front Office subject matter experts to drive delivery of associated supervisory reporting requirements. Key responsibilities include: You collect requirements for unwind assumptions (mostly for derivatives and trading inventory) and design improvements to the process You assist the lines of businesses in maintaining market depth assumptions by relying on historical analysis You coordinate the collection of unwind assumptions and perform completeness and accuracy controls You coordinate the production of methodology and results documentation for balance sheet, revenues and cash flows from unwind activities as well as RRP plan narratives You help produce management information (MI) related to portfolio unwind to support review and challenge You support model development, model execution, and reporting on an ad hoc basis You Offer At least six years of combined financial services experience in areas of treasury, liquidity management, FP&A, regulatory reporting, systems analysis, and/or project management; investment banking and capital markets experiences are preferred A solid analytical mindset: ability to analyze specific business problems, propose potential solutions, and participate with confidence in discussions around the most appropriate recommendation Strong Microsoft Excel and PowerPoint skills Excellent writing and verbal communication skills Strong track record of working in teams and collaborating on large projects with multiple stakeholders Previous Recovery and Resolution Plan experience is a plus"
  10. Maybe plot a straight line graph for historic house prices in the location you want to buy. Go back as far as possible - 70's or further if you can. Expect larges peaks and troughs in volatile areas such as London. Take the gradient of the line as the average % increase considering all the crashes and booms for various reasons over the decades. Then (I guess the least risk-adverse method) is to plot that straightline from the last crash (2008/09) and see what the prices should be now. You could probably expect the same increases over a long enough time horizon in the future (considering its worked in the past). One way I guess, if you can get the data.
  11. This asset class would be classed as part of your net wealth from a government/benefits perspective - I assume housing is not (providing you declare rental income)? Additionally, if it goes belly up (and some on this forum are saying it will) the housing asset class provides you will a tangible roof over you head? Also assume bank/governments lend via the well trodden path of mortgages for property assets - but don't do the same for funds or other investments - for a reason. Am not pro-housing investment, just curious why if the QE money has indirectly found its way into property as opposed to those funds - or have they ballooned equally?
  12. .. Moreover what is there a general message to the many people at this time who have put their lives on hold due to years of HPC - wait, buy, sell, rent, invest elsewhere?
  13. It would not have been the act of a genius to assume an increase in asset prices with the massive pumping of QE into the system and post crisis ZIRP/other policies. Why did we not see it? Cause the average man does not have easy insights to institutional actions and effects? Or because the institutions themselves did not expect the outcomes due to their out of date models? Does that mean the institutional levers are rendered more and more impotent now? Does it feel like we have reached a inflection time in the property market after a bull run in particular regions? Anyone on board with the growing consensus that the next phase will mark a reflation cycle through governments spending now directed to infrastructure to put money into average Joe's pocket - which QE has not done. People make life changing decisions based on the major investment of property, thus am curious on the expected effects on this asset in light of the changes which seem to be in play.
  14. Which asset class has out preformed is subject to the the time window you look at http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2958803/Cash-stocks-property-best-returns-past-30-years.html Unlike other assets classes, housing effects the fabric of society and thus political intervention occurs within a socialist orientated country which inturn skews market forces that sets asset prices. The current MSM negative press, the snap election, may speak to a political acknowledged that things should or will change at this time. Older voters are a higher percentile in any vote due to changing demographics and possible greater involvement/connections to the political classes. Who could have known, we would be looking back at the 2008 crash 10 years later and coming to the conclusions we are now (both winners and losers). To stop this forum from being an outlet for sour grapes we should debate the cause and effects to establish the best way forward. Most people regret not piling into property and debt leverage over the last 10 years - and then selling up before brexit. 10 years from now - what would we wished we had done?
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