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advicewelcome

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  1. Not so sure. There has been increasing city density globally. I suspect most cities have a few powerful freeholders who can get the ears of central governement more easily then regional centres (particularly when they detect their assets are deflating) . The increasing money spend on pedestrianisation and cycling routes within Central London could make it more desirable. I suspect London has "concentration of freeholders" - meaning a few foreign or local parties own swathes of the residential/commercial properties leasing to consumer/companies- whereas that regional areas probably have individ
  2. Flagged this a couple of weeks ago in this thread... ... would we all agree the London volumes ramped up and then fell of a cliff edge after the BTL tax changes (followed by Brexit vote) - the stats are agreeing with that. I sense that those people would be have been suckered into a trap of escalating prices with a tax deadline to create urgency, and then off a cliff edge. Maybe they will be offloading in the near future as interest rates/tax changes start to bite. If the bite is acute, hoping the same stampede out of London housing which will mean it will dip below its market value with
  3. Above does not mean a lot without volume data. The longer the mexian standoff between buyers and sellers, the more the variances once things get going transactionally. Land Reg dataset is probably reliable, even though it does have issues with incl. all types of sales and I assume a two month odd lag before the solictors get around to registering the sale with Landreg after exchange). I look for data tallying with other data sets. Seems contradictory with the below analysis I posted up before: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/property-prices/london/ Kensington & Chelsea is
  4. ... ah ok. The terms "liquid", "elastic" and "high-transnational" markets may be worth thinking about here for a sec. I guess liquid means easily 'buyable' and 'sellable', which means they price is very 'elastic' to supply and demand - we are probably agreed that a minimum transnational volume is probably needed in order to attain reasonable assurance around 'market value' of any trade'able commodity in any marketplace (in this case house prices). Sure, people will buy and sell at all sorts of prices, but to attain the market value, I guess we need just enough averages to be reasonably sure of
  5. .. AAAAllllrigteee... that clears that up. Or maybe not. Will need to google it before I reply. Just saying, if there are 5000 houses in a given area - can we say that unless 10% of them (for example) are transacting, we are unable to determine a valid house price value for that area? I know its a bit more complicated - 'cause in a house price rampant market (March 2016) there are a lot more price increases and therefore transactions and higher. However, considering we are now here, Mexican Standoff between buyers and sellers - is there a point at which we can say transactions number
  6. Ta. OK, understand that seasonal adjustment would be done. But a drop from 482 transactions to 90 in one area of London, shows a market in stagnation. We know that from Foxton's share price crash (transactions are the life blood of agents). Any supplier-buyer commodity is going to achieve a "market price". When there are lots of transaction frictionessly executed the true market price is easily evaluated (stock market, ebay, etc..) The housing market is less elastic (chain dependencies, SDLC tax to pay, people have to physically move, takes long time to execute - even longer to sho
  7. Did a cursory glance at this Bloomberg chart for London as Prime Central London can be incisive based on the ripple effect... https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/property-prices/london/ If I read it correctly - Kensington & Chelsea is showing a 20% increase in value over last year. But transactions numbers in April 2018 are down to all time low of 90 transactions (compared to 482 transactions in the pre-Brexit pre-BTL-tax crazy days of March 2016). Does this not demonstrate that unless you have a minimum number of transactions clearing within any market you cannot accuratel
  8. .. makes sense and maywell be the driver. I suppose there is paranoia in the air; there was not a lot of 'heads-up' to the average man on the street (who found himself queuing up outside of Northern Rock in the last crash). They don't tell us when things are going down, I assume top-down led Financial Institutions keep it stum to stop a run, so when it goes everyone vested in gets hit . There is a whiff of an inflection point after 10yrs QE/ZIRP and we are all left wondering what will break and where... and who will get burnt.
  9. Interesting when you see job postings like this appearing. They may have the plans and people already - but why need to hire now?... "RRP Business Analyst - Investment Banking - Recover and Resolution Planning As a member of the banks Recovery and Resolution Plan - you will be a key participant in the banks Resolution and Recovery Plan (RRP) effort. A Recovery and Resolution Plan or living will is a blueprint for saving or winding down a troubled bank without causing harm to retail depositors or the financial systems, and without relying on public funds. As a RRP Business Analyst,
  10. Maybe plot a straight line graph for historic house prices in the location you want to buy. Go back as far as possible - 70's or further if you can. Expect larges peaks and troughs in volatile areas such as London. Take the gradient of the line as the average % increase considering all the crashes and booms for various reasons over the decades. Then (I guess the least risk-adverse method) is to plot that straightline from the last crash (2008/09) and see what the prices should be now. You could probably expect the same increases over a long enough time horizon in the future (considering i
  11. This asset class would be classed as part of your net wealth from a government/benefits perspective - I assume housing is not (providing you declare rental income)? Additionally, if it goes belly up (and some on this forum are saying it will) the housing asset class provides you will a tangible roof over you head? Also assume bank/governments lend via the well trodden path of mortgages for property assets - but don't do the same for funds or other investments - for a reason. Am not pro-housing investment, just curious why if the QE money has indirectly found its way into propert
  12. .. Moreover what is there a general message to the many people at this time who have put their lives on hold due to years of HPC - wait, buy, sell, rent, invest elsewhere?
  13. It would not have been the act of a genius to assume an increase in asset prices with the massive pumping of QE into the system and post crisis ZIRP/other policies. Why did we not see it? Cause the average man does not have easy insights to institutional actions and effects? Or because the institutions themselves did not expect the outcomes due to their out of date models? Does that mean the institutional levers are rendered more and more impotent now? Does it feel like we have reached a inflection time in the property market after a bull run in particular regions? Anyone on board
  14. Which asset class has out preformed is subject to the the time window you look at http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-2958803/Cash-stocks-property-best-returns-past-30-years.html Unlike other assets classes, housing effects the fabric of society and thus political intervention occurs within a socialist orientated country which inturn skews market forces that sets asset prices. The current MSM negative press, the snap election, may speak to a political acknowledged that things should or will change at this time. Older voters are a higher percentile in any vo
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