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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Switch625

  1. I expect a lot of wobbly bottom lips and that's from the grown ups.
  2. Sums up the current mentality of some would be sellers. 'What do you mean house prices might fall? By how much? Right! Slap another 150K on it and I will accept 10% off' Unless they can find the 'Greater Fool' they will slowly follow the market down.
  3. 'any sudden increase in CGT for this market could flood the market with homes and depressing prices at a time when the property sector is in desperate need of support' AND WE HAVE A WINNER!
  4. You will not be on your own and there but for the grace of the gods go I and everyone else in the workforce currently
  5. With the reported burden on HMRC currently, they will be delighted to go for something easy to deliver
  6. Have to agree with you on that. This is an utter cluster**** created by a mixture of incompetence and greed. The fear that you have eluded to amongst our political elite is all too real. They have been playing a game of pass the parcel in the hope that they will be out of office when it all goes sideways.
  7. A suspicious lack of response to that I note. I would say that's a solid NO.
  8. Nice find Deckard. Not all Government actions will necessarily be 'positive' for the housing market.
  9. A reasonable statement Speed1987. I do have a very different take on how this will pan out, but have to agree we are currently in a phoney war of bulls and bears bellowing at each other until we know the true extent of the damage done by Lockdown and how many people will not be coming back from furlough. I too expect more props, the bigger the potential crash the more insane the prop will be, the ultimate question is will it be enough? Frankly neither of us know the answer to that. I have pinned my colours to the mast and expect falls, potentially big ones, it will be very interesting to see who is right.
  10. Pure anecdote, but I am amazed at the shear number of people I have talked to over the last few years who are in this situation. It has become quite commonplace, after all in a rising market with phenomenally low interest rates on mortgages it works. What could possibly go wrong?
  11. Yes I noticed that. Very interesting indeed. Makes perfect sense, after all the banks should be working out the capacity for the mortgage holder to pay the mortgage and building your own deposit goes some way to demonstrating exactly that. A large chunk of wedge from mumsy and dadkins doesn't, unless of course they can continue that support over a prolonged period.
  12. Sounds like some sort of ice cream flavour to me. "Please can I have a Brummie Ripple"
  13. I wasn't per se supporting Biden, but I guess in a two horse race that is the only outcome. It truly is an awful time to be an American if Trump could be considered your best option.
  14. The pain is already beginning for some and I can't see this going away soon. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53397954 800,000 UK households are behind on council tax Unless the government pull off an economic miracle this will be just the very tip of the top of the iceberg.
  15. If this becomes the new 'normal' I would say yes. Until Furlough ends and we start to see the real impact on unemployment, all we will hear is a lot of noise from the Bulls and Bears at opposite and extreme ends of the economic spectrum. Currently the majority of the signs are pointing to the Bears being right, but honestly no one really knows as there are too many variables and props that can be rolled out. This isn't a fair market we are involved in, it's the world's greatest Ponzi. My opinion is that unless there are substantial changes that increase the size of the average new mortgage, then a house price correction is baked in and if we fail to get an effective vaccine to COVID-19 in a relatively short timeframe, then doubly so. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53392148
  16. The other side of the coin is that with the government splurging so much money and local councils being in serious financial trouble they may finally make the link that if they drop the level of payments to those on the welfare that rental prices drop accordingly ??? .... Sorry I crack myself up sometimes! Common sense and government, what was I thinking? I think @spyguy is right the landlord will just be exceptionally careful of their wording if they chose to not take on DSS claimants. Even if this does turn out to be a prop, historical crashes have occurred despite such props. I think now is the time to sit back and watch this unwind.
  17. This is why I log into this site. 'But, But, But, we couldn't have possible foreseen, no one could have known ...' All so sadly predictable and discussed on the forum ages ago.
  18. From the article 'And though Sunak presented the cut in stamp duty as beneficial to first-time buyers, the move will keep prices high. This will make it harder for them to get on the housing ladder.' He does mention them, but beyond a recognition it makes things 'harder' for them, doesn't explore it any further. I am making an assumption here, but this probably reflects the writers own position, namely that they can see the damage being done to others, but dwell on the damage done to themselves i.e. paying more for their house. Fairly normal human behaviour. For what it's worth I think the rest of the article is a good insight into the thinking of successive governments for the last two decades. They can't see beyond their phoney measures of the UK economy and have been willing to destroy sections of the electorate to protect those figures.
  19. @Peter Hun Pretty much nails it, although he has forgotten to mention the power of vested interest. Housing is the only game in town for UK plc. and this is why everyone who doesn't have a house is consistently thrown under the bus and those that have big mortgages are very vulnerable if and when this national sized ponzi collapses.
  20. Yes that has the word 'clusterf**k' written all over it, so entirely possible.
  21. Your calculations on buying in 2007 would be absolutely correct if dealing with someone on average earnings buying an average house with an average mortgage. At this stage they will have lost out substantially from making what on the face of it was a good call i.e. not to buy into a Ponzi. You are of course right that in a rising market or even a very gradually falling one, it is on balance better to buy in than to sit it out renting. The converse is true in a rapidly falling market, where depending upon personal circumstances it will actually be beneficial to rent as you can save money, potentially a lot of money by not taking on a mortgage on a devaluing asset. https://www.drcalculator.com/mortgage/ An awful lot depends upon on how much rent you are paying and what you chose to do with any money which didn't go into paying off a mortgage. My approach has been to use that money and invest it. Of course I can't possibly know if I have made the right decision, the game isn't over. But right now, I would rather be holding the cards that I have in my hand, than the ones in yours. I don't have half a mortgage left to pay. I have assets outside the housing market which by my calculations are out performing the equivalent money tied up in the housing market. They have a way to go before I am cost neutral, but it's looking very positive from where I have positioned myself. For anyone waiting for the BIG FALL I would urge caution and advise they make themselves financially literate as soon as possible. Based purely on my own personal circumstances, now would in all likelihood be a very poor time to buy, but I don't have a crystal ball, things are likely to change and when they do I will act accordingly.
  22. Not much to disagree with Blink, the damage to decent people could be profound. There would be a certain schadenfreude watching some of the real leeches take a serious hit, but I wouldn't hold your breath. If they had any kind of brains they will have used this time to make good their unearned gains and come out of this smelling of roses. Because of the level of madness that we have seen and the broader global game that is the backdrop to all this I am still uncertain we will get the much needed correction that so many in this country need. That's not to say I don't think we will see further falls, that seems to be baked in, but I fully expect the government to throw the kitchen sink at this. Just think of the most stupid and feckless option that could actually make things worse and you won't be far off where they will go to in my opinion.
  23. For what it's worth that is certainly my take on it. It would have the knock on effect that those in charge would be in the same boat as renters and would have a disincentive to push the housing market as the only game in town.
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