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Switch625

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Everything posted by Switch625

  1. Neatly explains what has been going on and the real kicker is the last bit. Sure you have a nicer house, but you are now even deeper in debt that when you started. You stop telling everyone how much your house is worth, how clever you are and how stupid they were, whilst quietly praying you keep your job?
  2. The effects of inflation are great at masking debts but not so good at hiding the debt to income ratio. Currently this is over 140% per household (https://data.oecd.org/united-kingdom.htm), including an average credit card debt of almost £8,000 per household, with 48% of households having less than £1,500 in savings (https://themoneycharity.org.uk/media/Feb-2019-Money-Statistics.pdf). A sizeable proportion of people in this country will be very hard up in under a month if one of the household looses their job.
  3. High unemployment with lots of desperate people chasing every job, any job, just to remain obedient debt slaves is the future of the UK at least for the short to medium term.
  4. @rantnrave So nice of the banks to highlight to me who will be holding all the bad debt and thus who to avoid putting any money in.
  5. Just spent an entertaining few minutes looking up the entomology of that well known and appropriate phrase. My personal favourite derivation being 'Clown Fiesta' ?
  6. @Si1 Paul Weller on drums! Back on topic. I feel more love for the world having just listened to this again ?
  7. @Si1 showing your age with that track! I could admit that it is a great track but that would give away my age too ?
  8. Quite right Spy. Lax terminology on my part. I meant a like minded group of people rather than businesses working together. I fully agree about the foreign commercial investment. Not to dispute your call on the levels of residential, but do you have the link for the 10% figure on residential by any chance and am I right that this is disproportionately in flats? I recall reading articles on 'investment clubs' in foreign countries trying to stoke demand in UK residential, flats in particular and I know a few people in London who have bought in such complexes which are half empty even though they are all sold.
  9. Fair play. I have conflated the two and agree that from an external perspective they show all the signs of loving themselves, whilst form an internal perspective, if they are capable of such, the reverse is true. https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/fulfillment-any-age/201410/narcissists-need-love-themselves-more-not-less The title of the article is Narcissists Need to Love Themselves More, Not Less 'Narcissists may seem as though they're completely in love with themselves, but at the root of their inflated egos are deeply-held feelings of inferiority' Gotta love a predictive text gaff.
  10. Never heard them called that ? but you are totally right. Before this pandemic came along I was toying with the idea of a new car. For me 'new car' has always been something at least 3 years old and bought outright. I saved up my money and then thought I should do my due diligence, so I worked out what the same car bought on HP would cost instead. TWICE as much over a cycle of 8 years. I didn't buy on HP and didn't buy a 'new car', which is starting to look like a smart move.
  11. Having uncharacteristic problems with the keyboard this morning @Si1? I trust they were wise, but they could have been wide I guess ?. True enough statement. Not sure about the need to 'love oneself' that seems a bit narcissistic to me, but certainly agree you have to be happy in yourself and calm with your own life choices before you can fully share with another.
  12. One thing people seem unaware of is that a substantial amount of foreign investment in the UK housing market is not done by individuals. It is done by consortiums, small groups of people, often without lots of money, but clubbing together to get their money out of places like China. These people aren't rich oligarchs they are middle income, middle management and professional types. Of course as long as those consortiums keep piling money into the UK housing market, prices will be forced up, but what happens if they want, or need to remove that money? What could possibly make a consortium of not particularly rich Chinese investors panic and want their money back? I think a global pandemic and the recession that it is causing will be a perfect touch paper for panic amongst the middle classes in countries such as China. One of the great weaknesses of a consortium is that it only takes one member to want their money back and the whole group has to sell. Alternatively of course they could stump up the cash to cover the other members share, but is that something they are likely to do in the face of a major global economic downturn on a falling asset? I am quite sure our government will throw the kitchen sink and the rest of the fitted kitchen at this problem, but as prices slide other pressures such as overseas investors will come to bear and drive the market lower.
  13. @HovelinHove the figures speak for themselves. Exactly what action the government will take is yet to be revealed to us, but rest assured it will be a 'democratic' process with plenty of misery handed out to all. This has all the hallmarks of making the recessions of the 70's, 80's, 90's and 00's look like child's play in comparison. Coincidentally this is a great link showing that recessions are just part of life. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_Kingdom
  14. At this rate all anyone can hope for at Christmas is to return to work after it
  15. I think this exposes a generational divide and reflects more on the mother's mentality and problems than on the daughter's. In the mother's mind, she is a 'home owner' and home owner = successful. She is simply unable to see that 'owning a home' or actually far more likely for a young person, having a colossal debt we politely call a mortgage, isn't the only thing that can be used to measure one's worth by. I suspect that younger people are not as obsessed about 'home onwership', it's out of their reach and perhaps they are more interested in other qualities, brains, fun, companionship, a hot ****?
  16. And for at least some people you would be wrong ... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53421787 Lynn and Martin Fox had remortgaged their home to pay for a holiday of a lifetime with their two children in Florida, only for coronavirus and bad luck to ruin their plans. The couple finished paying for the holiday in January, but Mrs Fox, 42, then lost her cabin crew job at Flybe when the airline collapsed in March. Weeks later, as the virus lockdown took hold, work dried up for her husband, a pipe-fitter. ?‍♂️
  17. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53448181 Lynn and Martin Fox had remortgaged their home to pay for a holiday of a lifetime to Florida. The couple finished paying for the holiday in January, but Mrs Fox, 42, then lost her cabin crew job at Flybe when the airline collapsed in March. Weeks later, as the virus lockdown took hold, work dried up for her husband, a pipe-fitter. Then the holiday, planned for late April, was cancelled. ?‍♂️
  18. Thanks @Doner Kebab the figures are mind blowing, you simply couldn't make this stuff up. People on this site and plenty of others who aren't HPC'ers have known this for years. To quote Warren Buffett 'It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked'. The water level is going to start dropping on the 1st August ...
  19. That is brilliant! Never heard it before, very good.
  20. According to the OECD the outlook for the UK unemployment figures, currently at 3.9% are truly awful (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/07/uk-jobless-rate-coronavirus-oecd-unemployment). No second wave of Covid-19, the UK’s unemployment rate is likely to rise to 11.7% by the end of the year A second wave of Covid-19, the UK’s unemployment rate is likely to rise to 14.8% by the end of the year For comparison the previous peak for unemployment in 1984 was at 11.9% and the current UK unemployment rate is 3.9%. The furlough scheme has failed to save almost 2/3 of a million jobs so far and starts to unwind as of the 1st August when employers have to start paying ER NICs and pension contributions in addition to the governments 80% of wages up to £2,500. This employer contribution will increase to 10% of wages in September and then 20% in October. So unless they change the rules on how and when furlough ends we will see rapidly rising unemployment starting in about a fortnight. To this add the fact that the debt to income in this country is over 140% per household (https://data.oecd.org/united-kingdom.htm), including an average credit card debt of almost £8,000 per household, with 48% of households having less than £1,500 in savings (https://themoneycharity.org.uk/media/Feb-2019-Money-Statistics.pdf). A sizeable proportion of people in this country will be simply unable to stay afloat beyond a month if a household member losses their job. With figures like that I don't see any option but MASSIVE government intervention and if anyone thinks debt forbearance is likely, I would remind them what banks do when bailed out ....
  21. 'Landlords are a cash cow for the government' 'You are all sitting ducks'
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