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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Switch625

  1. I understand basic economics and monetary theory perfectly well thank you and haven't at any stage stated that what will happen is a good idea. I think it's a stupid move, but that doesn't change what will occur.
  2. On the contrary it is an understanding of the baser elements of human nature. Printing more money is the simplest option in this scenario and complies with the letter of the regulations. Ergo that is what will be done. Blind faith has nothing to do with it. I do agree with you that this will have dire consequences, but it doesn't mean they won't do it.
  3. That's my take on it. 15-20% now pretty much baked into the system in my opinion, with the possible chance of bigger falls, but I am not going to hold my breath.
  4. Yes. But that was largely because councils had wisely shoved huge sums of tax payers money into the Icelandic banking system.
  5. NS&I is 100% backed by the government, for them to not pay you back it would require the wheels to have completely come off the global economy not just the UK economy and for the political elite to want to destroy their own party. There would also be no point in the government not honouring its obligation, as they can always just print more money. Of course you may find that your £50,000 doesn't buy you much at that point. At that stage you will have bigger things to worry about than losing £50,000, things like where do I get my next meal and can I stay safe during these riots? But that's the point, people are still getting paid by the government for doing nothing and this will continue. The bank guarantees will be honoured as there is nothing to gain by reneging on the deal and a lot to lose. The value of the £ after the bailout is a different issue ... My advice would be as always, plan for the worst and hope for the best.
  6. Hearing a lot of this going on. For a lot of people it will be a simple choice, no job or the same job but on a lower wage. Just as well people hadn't loaded themselves up with debt that they struggled to pay with every penny that used to earn .....
  7. I personally would avoid the former as these will be highly sought after even in a downturn and likely to hold their price relative to other property. The best deals will be in the later category as few people have the patience or skills to renovate. My advice is get your hands dirty and skill yourself up. I completely agree with you, price falls will be region specific that is clear in the data from previous crashes. I think the headline I saw was 15% are considering this. That's not a very high figure, but the London city workers I know are all saying that things have changed and they won't be going in as often. Knowing London and the catchment area quite well, people in that area do have a bit of a problem, the mortgages they took on were huge. Potential sellers may well struggle to find a greater fool buyer at a price that will clear their mortgage and allow for sufficient deposit for their next move.
  8. BBC headline; New homes to get 'automatic' permission in England planning shake-up https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53625960 New homes and hospitals will be granted "automatic" permission to be built as part of sweeping planning reforms in England, the housing secretary says. - Impressive headline Robert Jenrick announced a "permission in principle" will be given to developments on land designated "for renewal" to speed-up building. - so not everywhere then, it's limited to England and areas of outstanding natural beauty and the green belt will be protected. Mr Jenrick ... insisted: "We are cutting red tape, but not standards." - Pull the other one! last week the government's own independent report warned that the quality of homes not delivered through the planning system was worse than those that had been properly regulated. My thought - This has all the hallmarks of an Ireland style property crash where entire estates of unwanted and unneeded poor quality homes thrown up in haste were later knocked down after the last recession. Could we actually be entering the end game for property inflation?
  9. Makes sense. Congratulations on landing a new job in the current environment. ?
  10. I have to agree and similarly expect next month to potentially still show positive house price growth as the last of the peak price sales feed through. Personally I am going to hold off and let the unemployment figures do the hard work of changing vendors attitudes for me. But if I was going to buy now then that seems like a sensible plan.
  11. My take on this is whatever the headline figures for unemployment, impact will be more marked than might be expected. A reasonable number of those still employed will see their hours reduced, with resultant pay cuts. I know of people that have already experienced this and perversely are expected to work just as hard as before. Given the current economic model in the UK which is driven by spending of both credit (drying/dried up) and earned money (reduced/reducing) a 'V' shaped return looks highly unlikely.
  12. Now we only need our government to take the same sensible approach to the housing market.
  13. And we all know that only one thing has driven the housing market for the last couple of decades and that has been consistent and easy access to cheap credit. Looks like that game is over.
  14. So do I and it isn't. https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/help-to-buy-isa/how-does-it-work/ It is a bonus applied AFTER you instruct your solicitor or conveyancer to apply for the government bonus. i.e. don't touch the ISA until they tell you too and follow their instructions to the letter.
  15. Another bearish article. It seems the mainstream media have finally removed their rose tinted spectacles and are seeing the truth of this mess for what people on this site knew all along. 'In Britain, we’ve seen our fair share of disastrous policies in recent years, but few have been as predictably self-defeating as help-to-buy. Introduced by George Osborne in 2013 as a means of helping people onto the housing ladder, it was clear from the outset that the policy would do more harm than good.' Really? You mean it was actually help to get elected and make some money for his chums? Good lord, well he had me fooled ... 'The Financial Conduct Authority warned that help-to-buy customers are more exposed to changes in “economic conditions”, and face a greater risk of negative equity.' Well I never! And the comments section isn't friendly toward failed government policies either. All good HPC news
  16. Your welcome! 'It comes as economists expect prices to fall this year, and even more the next, when unemployment is expected to rise as the furlough scheme comes to an end.' 'The Office for Budget Responsibility has predicted prices could fall 2.4 per cent this year and 11.7 per cent next year under their best-case scenario.' 'Meanwhile, the Centre for Economics and Business Research has predicted that house prices will fall by 5 per cent this year and a further 10.6 per cent in 2021' So that's the VI's stating a best case scenario is around -15% over the next 18 months.
  17. I suspect that a lot of them are in the same situation and that is before things get really unpleasant. After a decade of unparalleled government support and warnings the smart money has already left the building ...
  18. That's a big IF. For what its worth I think a lot of people with previously very decent incomes are now on dangerously thin ice having overstretched themselves and are just as at risk as the lower income earners. That being the case it will have a seriously material impact on the housing market. Well that depends. I choose to rent because it is currently working in my favour. True I am paying some leeches mortgage for them, which frankly irks me. But as soon as my tenancy is due I will be renegotiating a lower rent, quite possibly one that doesn't actually pay off their mortgage and if they don't like that, good luck finding another decent tenant who can afford to pay more in my area. Currently I am paying substantially less in rent than I would be in mortgage costs for the houses I want to purchase, this has allowed me to build a very decent deposit, a deposit which is continuing to grow rapidly. If house prices fall as I think they will I will actually be saving money hand over fist by not buying in now. Indeed it will. Everyone is attempting to look into a very uncertain future. We simply don't know what idiot plans our lords and masters will come up with, however you can be sure that they will be utterly self serving and poor for society as a whole. Both of us expect to win, one of us will be disappointed and I know who I have my money on. I have arranged my assets and investments accordingly to minimise the likelihood of damage, have you?
  19. National Trust laying off 1,200 staff - about 13% of their workforce. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-53585007
  20. Thanks @Martin_JD always good to see the other side of the equation. I think we are in agreement that the system north and south of the border needs improving and let's face it no one would shed tears for the middle men losing out.
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