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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Switch625

  1. Banks ultimately will do what they need to do as businesses to make money. Tenants are of course worried, as I am sure are many home owners mortgage holders, but most worried of all are the leveraged landlords. The government has no need to bail out landlords when the banks will be the ones vilified in the press for the unpleasant task of seizing assets using the existing laws. It would be quite easy for the government to arrange a deal with the banks to ensure that tenants or former home owners mortgage holders remain housed and the people who incurred the debt i.e. landlords and mortgage holders remain responsible for those debts. Little wonder the landlords are starting to panic.
  2. Your take aligns very much with my feelings on this. I don't think anyone is in any doubt that house prices are and have been in a huge asset bubble for a considerable period of time. We can disagree about exactly about when it started (*early 2000's), who was responsible (*successive governments involving all major parties) and even the causes (*greed and self interest supported by intentionally lax lending regulation, increased demand and limitation of supply in that order). *purely my perception, others are perfectly at liberty to disagree, but ultimately it matters not when it started or what the causes were, the outcome is the same. What we have witnessed recently with Mr. Sunak's latest prop for the market and recent calls to help tenants landlords in distress are in my opinion an attempt to realise a 'Return to Normal' which is front running the next step 'Fear', as evidenced by MSM covering stories of those in distress and the sudden influx of 'Trolls' on this site and others. The life cycle of bubbles rarely follows the exact formula expressed by the graph above, if it did then it would be easy to predict, this site is proof that this hasn't been easy to predict. There are many false peaks and troughs in a bubble and this could be just another false peak as is being stated by the 'Bulls' .... but I doubt it. The problem for the majority of 'Bulls' is that they won't have got in during the "Awareness Phase', they will have arrived later, in the 'Mania Phase'. Even those that timed it well and have substantial 'paper gains' from the 'Awareness Phase' will almost certainly have doubled down in the 'Mania Phase', this makes the 'Bulls' very vulnerable indeed to the 'Blow off Phase'. They are terrified that they have mistimed this market and now stand to lose out and for some potentially lose everything. For what my opinion is worth (which after a number of decades on this planet I have come to realise is very little) we are hovering between the steps 'Return to Normal' and 'Fear'. The next few months will show us if those in charge can engineer yet another 'New Paradigm' or if 'Capitulation' wins out. Indeed, time to sit back and enjoy the show ...
  3. Another article on the impact of the non eviction ruling on landlords https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/renting/landlords-face-20000-bill-due-governments-eviction-ban/
  4. @Sausage, the following is a great little site to calculate costs over time .. https://www.drcalculator.com/mortgage/ Don't forget to add in cost of arrangement fees
  5. @HovelinHove You have my sympathy, as Adarmo pointed out that may swing things. Everyone needs to sit down with a spreadsheet and workout their own personal circumstances from as dispassionate a point of view as possible.
  6. It could be, but I strongly doubt it, just as I doubt that we will see a true crash. My take is that we will see decent correction, but those hoping for a crash are likely to be disappointed once again as the vested interests have already shown they are more than willing and capable of sacrificing the futures of others to preserve their own undeserved wealth. Very reasonable points @adarmo For those paying high rental costs you have a valid point, but my personal situation is a comfortable house at below market rental, so I am happy to sit tight for now. Obviously thats only my situation and a lot of people won't have that. Sterling is likely to be reduced relative to the dollar, so best advice is act accordingly.
  7. @HovelinHove neatly sums up the situation. I too think this recent wave of activity will push prices up, which will of course queue a lot of 'I told you so' from the property bulls. Let them have their moment in the sun, the fundamentals remain horrible and for me it's a down hill trajectory for house prices after what I think will turn out to be a brief period of mania.
  8. And this could be a VERY bad winter. The one after may not be to clever either ...
  9. Where are the naysayer trolls who insist that everyone on HPC is negative and bullying when someone buys? 🤔
  10. +1 oh and hope it all works for you too 🤞
  11. Predictably STA travel have gone, along with 500 jobs. Shame, I used them last year and they were very good. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53868447
  12. Housing crisis is discussed from 1:01 to 1:06. Alistair Darling, George Osborne and Phillip Hammond answering questions. As expected a largely London centric view and zero recognition of any culpability for adding to the housing crisis under their watch, although credit to Alastair Darling for recognition that there is a national crisis and an interesting view on Air BnB within cities such as Edinburgh.
  13. Corrected for you The Germans are leading the way and extending their scheme for the next 12 months at an estimated cost of £9 bn (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/18/germany-to-extend-coronavirus-furlough-to-24-months), which looks to be excellent value compared to the UK scheme which has cost £35 bn so far.
  14. +1 it is at this point that the reality for many people who think of themselves as home owners kicks in. They were never home 'owners', they were home 'borrowers' and the landlord is the bank.
  15. Sadly you may well be right. The standard response is to threaten to leave and then if not pandered too, disappear to another location with lax regulation to allow their continued tax evasion minimisation. Daft really as they need access to markets to make their profits and that could quite easily be withheld if enough governments called their bluff. There is the faintest glimmer of hope that given this is a global problem they may yet be pinned down and forced to pay their way, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
  16. Won't sell when they could do so at a small gain/loss then find they can't sell and are trapped. Standard behaviour in a downturn and likely to lead to a lot of misery.
  17. @richmondtw I won't respond for the other posters, but deal with your comments related only to me and would ask that you please look at the context of the comments I was responding to. I am not jealous, I have no need to be, I have done well out of capitalism and look likely to continue to do so. I am however concerned that a swathe of society has been materially disadvantaged and calling out those people as jealous rather misses the point. Again please look at the context of the comment responded to, which was mocking the very people who have been disadvantaged which is at best unpleasant. As for ranting, I am not sure what you are referring to, perhaps the comments I was responding to? As to owning your own home, congratulations, and no you shouldn't feel guilty for doing so, again please check original comment. For clarity I intend to buy as soon as this market looks like it makes sense. At that stage I of course won't be a home owner, as I will have a modest mortgage and as such it will be the bank that owns my home until I pay off the remainder of my debt.
  18. Yes it is. The interesting part is the subtext of the posts from this and other threads. They can't see that anyone with an alternate world view may be correct, or perhaps they can and that's why the're so worried?
  19. Your ill earned gains have disadvantaged the people that you and your kind have leeched off for far too long, are my business. Unsurprisingly I am a higher rate tax payer and I do very nicely out of capitalism thanks That doesn't even make sense ??
  20. @Simhadri Just a few problems with your post; If things turn really nasty the tenants on benefits might be some of the few that keep paying I am not on furlough I really don't worry about you In my line of work if I am on the dole the rest of the country will already have been made redundant before me and that includes your tenants I am extremely fortunate to be very well remunerated for my work The economy isn't going to bounce I already have a deposit big enough to buy the houses I want, I am choosing to wait and watch for the time being I haven't spent 20 years moaning on this forum I have spent eight years getting myself into a position to take advantage of a HPC I will have no pity for those who have leeched off others for so long going to the wall I will continue to pay tax which will support your welfare benefits when you need them after this is over ... you're welcome
  21. I am in the same position and doing exactly the same thing for exactly the same reason. A potential small rise, say 5% over the next year would be annoying but not a game changer and I see far more likelihood that at the worst I will be no worse off and quite probably substantially better off. I will only still be renting in a years time if house prices are coming down appreciably, but I agree with your point, I certainly won't wait for other possible causes for falls. The wretched political class that we have suffered under in this country for decades have made it abundantly clear that they are in it up to their snouts and won't do anything to help anyone but themselves and their masters.
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