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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Jugador

  1. I know only two personally (a couple) and they're staying. Both have good jobs in the NHS and they live in a nice flat. They are hoping the get the right to remain after Brexit. My view is that most in the same position as these two will stay.
  2. Have to admit I do wonder what these degrees and doctorates are when I hear that the holders of them are struggling. I know people who wasted 3 years, two getting drunk and one doing a bit of work, to then get a degree in some wishy-washy subject. Anybody with an ounce of grey matter would have known it was a road to nowhere.
  3. I'm going to carry on blaming Brown. He p*ssed so much public money away on nothing. The company I worked for at the time was a beneficiary and couldn't quite believe its luck. Thatcher repaid debt (I think).
  4. Half the country has been in one for a long time, London's caught on, it seems ;-). Prices certainly flattening in my area if not dropping yet.
  5. May I ask a question. When, in the eyes of the people here, was the last dip in house prices that represented a HPC?
  6. My point was that although you said everybody reading the thread could see that he was talking nonsense, I have been reading the thread and don't think he's talking nonsense. Surprised you missed that TBH. In my brief time here I've worked out I must keep it simple, but clearly I must try harder.
  7. Not me. I'm a DIYer. On my individual picks over the last 2 years I am neither up nor down. I've had -35% picks and +70% picks. That's the way it goes, apparently for the majority of the so-called pros who can't out-pick a tracker. A palatable level of risk for most is some kind of ISA with a mix of cash and shares, and the tax advantages effectively deliver a few % of gain over individual stock picks straight away. If I were sat on 150k and paying tax I would certainly have something in an ISA.
  8. Where I live in Spain several large apartments have changed hands in the 300-450k bracket and all but one went to non-Brits. Plenty of people from places like Norway and Switzerland and other northern European countries are holding up demand. It's surprised me, but demand is much higher now than it was a few years ago. The biggest surprise has been the reappearance of cranes, there's plenty of construction going on. What's been said about occupancy rates in resorts is true. I'm in the Valencia region so the local news carries Benidorm articles, according to which it was sold out at times last year.
  9. I seem to remember reading somewhere that there is around 500 times as much "gold" (ETFs, etc) as there is actual gold. Not sure if that is right but I came to the conclusion to steer clear of ETFs. I've got a view on the £ but decided a while ago to steer clear of the short-term trading systems, but the temptation is always there.
  10. Actually, I agree with him and I think you're the one talking nonsense. Maybe in future you might check with everyone before speaking for them, or just not do it. Just a suggestion.
  11. As someone who is currently chucking or giving away skip-loads full of stuff I didn't need that I acquired over 20 years, I can endorse your approach! After moving I am implementing a policy of chucking one thing out for every non-essential thing I bring in. There's a lot of satisfaction to be gained from not buying stuff.
  12. My son's in those numbers, he bought recently. His view is that he's going to hold onto it for a long time so any short-term fluctuations don't matter. Also, he bought in the Midlands and is no longer paying 1k a month for a room in a shared flat in a shit part of London, so he doesn't see it as a terrible mess if there is a drop as he was always 12k a year "down" anyway. Of course there is an alternative view, which is that the UK is in long term decline and housing stock will cost less in the future than it does now. That's what I think but then I have been awful with predictions over the years.
  13. i agree. We'll let Sheikh Khalifa of Abu Dhabi personally hold 2.5 billion of London according to the Panama papers, and his sovereign wealth fund hold a lot more, but you try going over to his place and buying anything that isn't on a designated site. They simply won't allow it. But we're broke so we'll allow this exploitation.
  14. I was talking to one [EA] yesterday. He was saying exactly that, Chinese money is buying up property in my area (Midlands), apparently. I'm not sure whether it's drivel or not, but he's nothing to gain from telling me. Just another EA mantra I suppose, always talk the market up. I don't look at London much but saw a story about Battersea having sold very quickly and mostly to foreigners. Then saw a story like this one in one of the papers down there... http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/london-property-nervous-battersea-power-station-investors-slash-asking-prices-re-sell-1547647 Hard to believe the money will keep coming if drops like this take hold, so the EAs are going to have to look really convincing when telling that story.
  15. True. British companies like Taylor Wimpey have many projects on the go. It seems that many people prefer new and shiny despite there being so much second hand stock at good prices. But all the best land went years ago and it's those sites that hold up in value. People buying some of the stuff that's going up now will struggle to move it on in the future. I'm not sure what a 50% drop is in absolute numbers though. Apparently transaction numbers are still low despite all the agents claiming an upturn in interest.
  16. If I become a LL it'll be reluctantly and at this point it's still an *if*. Thanks for the welcome and the book tip, and for the "El" in front of my name... that language course was obviously Spanish, good luck with that. Having read more of it in the last few days, this does seem like a great place.
  17. Guys, please, this was the only point I was making. I posted here only to make this point to help with understanding the issue. I was not trolling. My first post was to point out that you can become resident and tax resident in another country very easily. Does it mean that HRMC won't come after you for tax on rental income? No. Does it mean they won't want to get you for CGT? No. But if you move to another country will they want to claim your tax on your income from world wide assets and work, oh yes they certainly will, and IME they're every bit as determined as the HRMC. That was it, my one point.
  18. Thank you. My only point when entering this thread was to say that it is in fact very easy to "up and become resident (tax resident) in [name your EU country of your choice]". And in fact it is very hard not to. Spain, for example, should you go on a two week package holiday to Torremolinos and string it out to seven months, will claim that you are resident and tax resident and will take their share of your income from world wide assets which they will insist you declare. The UK [and thereby HRMC] will agree to this as they have signed-up to a double taxation agreement Armchair experts who have only ever lived in the UK and who have never dealt with the paperwork and bureaucracy, and those with a bee in their bonnet about ex breakdancers, will derail the discussion, but that fact remains.... a fact.
  19. Well yes I could do the dinner parties thing but it's never appealed to me, i have been the one pointing out that we will always need somewhere to live in so the value of our one property was always relative and therefore the value of it pretty much irrelevant. Going the BTL empire route is a very different thing, but honestly, it's not the moral questions that prevented me, it's the fact that I'd be a landlord and have to deal with tenants, it really holds no appeal whatever the benefits. I'm like you, I strongly expect a significant drop for all the same reasons, but I expected it years ago and it never came to pass. And given that a drop really wouldn't have a great impact in me, whether I stay in or out of the market isn't such a big weight in the decision. Being new here, I do wonder just what a HPC means to most people here. When does a correction become a crash. Is a correction 25% and a crash 50%, for example. And I'll say this only once more, I am not trolling, I am only interested in discussions about the outlook for the UK property market and the moral and financial positions influencing the decisions we all make.
  20. The market value is approximately 380k. I'm not in a rush now and have been able to let the kids use it for years because most contracts I have worked on while away have been at a rate that has been sufficient to cover the cost of local renting where I was working. That said, now that it is empty (has been for 3 months) I am covering all the bills previously paid by the kids, and that can't go on for long. My view of the market in my area is that there will be little if any HPI for a few years. Then again, I said in 2012 that prices would be flat for a decade was wrong (gone up 22%), so what do I know. I don't want HPI protected and would prefer it if working people could afford the average house in this country. I think allowing BTL to reach the scale it has was a huge mistake and I welcomed Osborne's changes. Maybe we'll start seeing houses for FTB's dropping to affordable levels, I hope so. Those links were very interesting, some points in there I hadn't thought of.
  21. Luckily it seems a mentor has adopted me and is determined to make me aware of my transgressions.
  22. The history is, I haven't lived in the UK for more than 1 full year in the last 10, I have been an expat working abroad both inside and outside the EU. Whilst away I have lived in rented properties and I am currently living in a rented flat in Spain. Whilst out of the UK we let our kids and their partners live in our house rent free to give them the opportunity to save for deposits on homes of their own, which they did and both have now bought. So, I now have my original home which I am not living in and which will be left empty if I don't either sell it or rent it out. You think I have already made up my mind, well, not entirely but yes, I am leaning that way. The primary reason being that I won't be in Spain forever and expect to return within 3 years, at which time I will need somewhere to live. It seems less hassle to keep my house and return to it eventually. That said, I really don't want to be a landlord for the sole reason I can't be bothered dealing with maintenance issues. But, I don't regard money in the bank as safe, I have a pessimistic view of the UK's state and wouldn't be surprised to see a Cyprus style haircut at some point.
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