Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

in2perspective

Members
  • Content Count

    18
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About in2perspective

  • Rank
    HPC Newbie
  1. Good morning HPC, I am more than happy to provide you with a copy of our report on HIPs and their impact on the market. I dont seem to be able to attach it to this post due to the file size. If you email me - [email protected] - then I can happily forward you a copy. (Perhaps the webmaster would like to post it somewhere?) Pages 18-23 in particular will be of interest to you as they explain why the market is currently 30% overvalued. Our view has always been that HIPs were a sufficient but not a necessary trigger for a correction in house prices. Regarding Bart of Darkness's point about our c
  2. I read this earlier and it didnt make any sense so I looked into it...it is taken from "A sustainability impact study of additional housing scenarios in England". It originates from "a review of regional house price models by Meen and Andrew (1998)"...(in fact the DCLG even get this wrong saying the report was published ten years earlier 1988!). If you then go to that original report their table also says "interest rates -0.02 to -0.04", however in the main body of text it says...."A one percentage point rise in interest rates would reduce house prices by between 2 and 4 percent." http://ww
  3. Immigration key to low inflation and interest rates (therefore significant factor in house price inflation) The effect immigration has had on inflation is considerable. Ernst and Young believe interest rates are 0.5% lower than they would be if we hadnt had net migration over the last few years. They believe the effect will grow to 1%. So without the influx of immigrants into low paid jobs over recent years rates would be 5-5.5%. We wrote about this in an article published on In2Perspective yesterday. http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/2006/05/i...erest-rates.jsp The calls of the left (Respe
  4. Didnt realise you had already posted that good to see HPC on the ball as usual. We added in the Council of Mortgage Lenders comment to our article. It basically says that the actual possessions will be much lower because people usually come to an arrangement. But it does say they predict repossessions to have risen by 20% by the time they announce their next figures.
  5. "When people fall behind in their mortgage or rent payments possession orders are made against the property through the county courts. If successful these turn into repossessions. The number of orders made in the first quarter of 2006 is 57% higher than the same period in 2005.... http://www.in2p.co.uk/nr/2006/05/possessio...n-last-year.jsp
  6. http://www.in2perspective.com/nr/2006/04/h...in-february.jsp The ODPM says that, "The fall in UK prices between January and February can be atributed to falls in average prices for all property types, in particular for flats (4.6 per cent)." Thought that might be worth highlighting.
  7. Of course you can! I'm really sorry you didnt get a reply - I dont understand why you wouldnt have. :angry: Please accept my apologies and help yourself to our graphs. Linking to us would obviously be much appreciated. What is your website? Should we link to you in some way?
  8. I'm sorry to hear that. We always reply to messages so I cant think why you didnt receive a response. Please feel free to email me and I shall reply - I promise! Obviously, I have my own personal opinions and have written a great deal on property but please keep your points coming. It is interesting to see the different views and the priority certain arguments are given. Thanks.
  9. I am in the process of writing a special report for our website on "Selling to Rent In2Perspective". As the property market hasnt yet crashed if you think it is about to, then Spring 2006 could well turn out to be the best possible time to Sell to Rent. We are collating information from a variety of sources and would really appreciate your help. Please let me know your thoughts on: The pros and cons of STR; Sources of information on STR; People you would recommend we spoke to. It would be great to hear from people who have already Sold to Rent or are thinking of doing so? And those who h
  10. Thanks for that. We should put together a proper comparison of how the indices are compiled. Could you recommend any sources for this (other than the information on the Hal/Nat/ODPM/HT/RM sites). Presumaby the ripple effect from London outwards is the reason why in the nineties Northern Ireland and Scotland didnt see price fall to the same degree as the rest of the UK is that their boom was stopped in its tracks. Given your point about the bias towards London in Nationwides historical data that would make sense?
  11. I posted this on a previous thread...guess its relevant though... "You may be interested to know that Nationwide was 2 years ahead of Halifax in showing the nineties house price falls... Witness...Nationwide HPI and Halifax HPI. Now, I dont want to get HPC readers too excited but if you look at that trend - Nationwide is quicker than Halifax in showing evidence of house price falls....then what do you think about this months HP stats....Halifax showed a nice 1.4% rise and Nationwide showed a.....modest 0.2% fall."
  12. We have no links with Nationwide - official or unofficial! Thanks very much. Its now up to us to continue improving the site!
  13. I agree. We shall be putting in the Land Registry data. Indexes like Halifax and Nationwide are useful in indicating trends because of their timeliness over the Land Reg... You may be interested to know that Nationwide was 2 years ahead of Halifax in showing the nineties house price falls... Witness...Nationwide HPI and Halifax HPI Now, I dont want to get HPC readers too excited but if you look at that trend - Nationwide is quicker than Halifax in showing evidence of house price falls....then what do you think about this months HP stats....Halifax showed a nice 1.4% rise and Nationwide show
  14. Thanks very much for your kind comments. Glad you are finding the stats/articles useful. I cant resist saying "whistleblower" last night was hugely enjoyable to watch. It is a relief that this is being talked about. If you think estate agents are bad though the buy-to-let/investment industry is even more poisoned. The unwinding of buy-to-let will have considerable significance on the rest of the market for many reasons. eg. Media coverage and the effects that will have on the belief that "property always goes up". Siginificant numbers of properties that would normally have been bought by F
  15. Kind of yes, in nominal terms at least, they didnt rise or fall as much in the late eighties boom. However, that doesnt appear to be the case now. Typically the further away from London the longer the ripple affect of economic prosperity (or trouble) is felt. Because the late eighties boom was pretty fast the northern Irish and Scottish had time not to go OTT before correcting. Our current boom has been more gradual that previous - therefore Scotland and NI house price inflation has been just as fast as in the UK but later than London - as you can see from the graphs on our website. (Halifax'
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.