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Sithuk

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  1. Thank you. So those are metrics for the USA market. Do you have any data sources for the UK that go back that far?
  2. What data sources did you use for average earnings and average mortgage SVR to go back to 1952?
  3. Thank you for the analysis and charts. I've updated retirementinvestingtoday's (RIT) approach to assessing the UK housing market for the latest data recently and thought I'd share here as it is relevant. The starting monthly payment in chart two is interesting given that we're around £500 below the peak in Q3 2007, but energy bills have increased significantly in real terms since then, so affordability is likely to be more stressed than suggested. https://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2013/01/uk-house-value-vs-uk-house.html 1. Real house prices and Prices/Earnings. 2. Starting Monthly UK House Payment (Real) and BoE SVR. 3. UK House Affordability Ratio and BoE SVR.
  4. "Any change in the rules should apply only to new second or rental homes, not existing landlords or second home owners, he stressed." https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/tax-crackdown-on-second-homes-could-be-coming-as-gove-ally-backs-owning-over-renting/ar-AAOyVr1?li=BBoPWjQ
  5. To where? Haven't all western markets been caught up in the same asset price boom?
  6. Housing wealth is not counted for benefits. Why would it be for this wealth tax? A cash deposit saving for a house on the other hand...
  7. "House prices in July 2020 were 3.8% higher than the same month a year earlier." https://www.halifax.co.uk/media-centre/house-price-index.html
  8. I wonder if the rush is from those wanting to get a mortgage secured before losing their jobs. Maybe in the belief that the government won't allow banks to repossess if the borrower can't pay because of redundancy.
  9. When will the latest property lion index numbers be released?
  10. ONS: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/outofworkbenefits/timeseries/bcjd/unem
  11. A long but interesting read from Richard Murphy at Tax Research UK. https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/05/05/people-and-jobs-or-wealth-the-government-has-to-decide-which-to-prioritise-and-there-is-only-one-right-answer/ "In reality, the value implicit in land has already disappeared. It is folly to pretend otherwise. The only reason no one has yet begun to realise this is that we have a completely frozen property market at present. When that reopens prices will, as a matter of fact, tumble. And so too will new rents. All I am saying is that old ones have to follow suit: if we want an economy that generates income in the future then the blunt fact is that we now have to trash our balance sheet. Or rather, we have to accept that it has already been trashed and now deal with the consequences."
  12. @Greg BowmanWhich government leaked guidance is that? "Sports teams (GAA & soccer) may recommence and public swimming pools may reopen" "GAA & soccer" is an odd phrase for a Whitehall based official to write?
  13. I'd also like to read a credible source on net excess deaths too. If anyone does have one, please share.
  14. The ICL report has 510k dead for a do nothing scenario with a fantasy scenario of unlimited ICU beds. The media first reported 250k as a “worst case” which then has recently changed to 500k (not 510k. assume this for ease of reporting). What I don’t know is why ICL hasn’t corrected this glaringly obvious error of reporting. ICL never gave an estimate for the number of dead given the ICU bed under capacity. That struck me as strange given that ICL modelled the undercapacity of ICU beds but then estimated the deaths based on no undercapacity. Having just shown there would be a shortage why model deaths with no shortage? And the media (and posters on this thread) keep repeating 500k dead as what ICL said was a do nothing case. The 500k dead was assuming no shortage of ICU beds. The ICL authors in their report say that won’t be the case. So why keep using that number?
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