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Sithuk

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  1. "House prices in July 2020 were 3.8% higher than the same month a year earlier." https://www.halifax.co.uk/media-centre/house-price-index.html
  2. I wonder if the rush is from those wanting to get a mortgage secured before losing their jobs. Maybe in the belief that the government won't allow banks to repossess if the borrower can't pay because of redundancy.
  3. When will the latest property lion index numbers be released?
  4. ONS: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/outofworkbenefits/timeseries/bcjd/unem
  5. A long but interesting read from Richard Murphy at Tax Research UK. https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/05/05/people-and-jobs-or-wealth-the-government-has-to-decide-which-to-prioritise-and-there-is-only-one-right-answer/ "In reality, the value implicit in land has already disappeared. It is folly to pretend otherwise. The only reason no one has yet begun to realise this is that we have a completely frozen property market at present. When that reopens prices will, as a matter of fact, tumble. And so too will new rents. All I am saying is that old ones have to follow suit: if we w
  6. @Greg BowmanWhich government leaked guidance is that? "Sports teams (GAA & soccer) may recommence and public swimming pools may reopen" "GAA & soccer" is an odd phrase for a Whitehall based official to write?
  7. I'd also like to read a credible source on net excess deaths too. If anyone does have one, please share.
  8. The ICL report has 510k dead for a do nothing scenario with a fantasy scenario of unlimited ICU beds. The media first reported 250k as a “worst case” which then has recently changed to 500k (not 510k. assume this for ease of reporting). What I don’t know is why ICL hasn’t corrected this glaringly obvious error of reporting. ICL never gave an estimate for the number of dead given the ICU bed under capacity. That struck me as strange given that ICL modelled the undercapacity of ICU beds but then estimated the deaths based on no undercapacity. Having just shown there would be a short
  9. Damning for Hancock? He went on Marr the Sunday after the imperial report to deny there had been any change in strategy. Acted bewildered and confused as though he had no idea what Marr was on about. Going to struggle with credibility going forward?
  10. The IC modelling indicated 5k to 50k dead with all 4 policies implemented even if implemented now. China seems to have been able to stop CV infections through that route. Why do you believe it won’t be successful here? Cultural differences? Lack of gov intervention to enforce?
  11. Good summary. You've written "8k" ICU beds for mitigation and "7k" for suppression. Imperial wrote that "Peak GB ICU surge capacity is approximately 5000 beds" [top of page 13]. Key take away is with all 4 interventions the required ICU is kept below capacity of around 5000 beds (school/university closure + case isolation + social distancing + home quarantine). Deaths from 5.6k to 48k (page 13). Unfortunately the measures look likely to be indefinite until a vaccine is found otherwise the infection rate spikes again.
  12. Work out the £/m² for similar properties that have sold recently. Use that as your baseline to calculate a valuation, then take your 25% of that.
  13. Thanks Spyguy: do you have any links detailing what the Gov has changed to stop a LL issuing S21 while the consultation takes place and any changes enacted in law?
  14. Am I right that absolutely nothing has changed or is even scheduled to change. Just a vague commitment to “consult”. Worse, there is no protection for sitting tenants from LLs front running any future change by issuing a S21 now.
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