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Everything posted by Futuroid

  1. Iceland's "easy" FTA with China is something the UK won't be getting. It was pure politics, and nothing to do with trade. It was signed as part of an Arctic strategy as China sees a alternative trade routes (a "Polar Silk Road") opening up as the arctic warms. The UK has nothing similar to offer China. By signing a trade deal with a relative minnow (whose main export is Atlantic seafish - something the Chinese can't make or copy themselves) they get an influential friend in the region. https://thediplomat.com/2015/05/china-iceland-and-the-arctic/ https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/china-issues-its-arctic-policy/ As for "a brutal shock followed by phenomenal recovery." I grew up living on the outskirts of Newcastle in the 70s & 80s. Many communities still haven't recovered from "the shock", which was relatively minor compared a Brexit no deal scenario. First hand experience tells me that there are 20% of people who would be just fine, or even better off. But the pain would felt acutely by (ironically) the very people who voted Leave to get change. The shock would only be over quickly if the UK made immediate and sweeping reforms to it's parliament, infrastructure and class structure. That hasn't happened before and it's unlikely to happen now - power will simply be consolidated. You are living in a dream world, and the dream is collapsing.
  2. Quite an interesting point made by a local news jounro: George Smid: Nobody gets everything may end up with everybody getting nothing https://lincolnshirereporter.co.uk/2018/03/george-smid-nobody-gets-everything-may-end-everybody-getting-nothing/ "This is a misunderstanding which might destroy the dynamic of the negotiations. We must remember that each member states’ parliament has to approve the deal. For the UK to actually see itself as an equal partner to the remaining 27 nations is automatically perceived as the UK elevating itself above all and any of the remaining nations. Effectively proposing that one vote (of the UK) carries the same weight as 27 votes. That is bound to solicit a frosty response from the remaining 27 states." Time and time again in the press and in Leaver rhetoric, the EU is painted as a single entity, but it's not - underneath the covers there are 27 countries and they ALL have to agree with the UK deal. Pissing off any single one (like Ireland) might not completely derail the process, but it will certainly delay it massively.
  3. Do you know what the funny thing about that poll was? On Facebook, the poll was a resounding 70% in favour of Hard Brexit. But, they ran the same poll on Twitter and it was a resounding 80% for Remain... it's almost like some right wing pro-Brexit facebook pages shared his poll and encouraged the Leavers to vote, but they forgot to check Twitter...
  4. I wasn't having a dig at you specifically, but the general media outrage like this: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/18/germany-digs-heels-world-anger-mounts-toxic-trade-surplus/ Germany are basically doing what other countries talk about, but never implement. They have avoided a property bubble, have invested in infrastructure and technology, have a devolved political power structure, created a relationship between employers and employees that recognises the symbiotic relationship between them and give respect to those with knowledge. Not perfect by any means, but people should be taking notes, not finger pointing...
  5. We aren't the only ones to blame - but if you destabilize countries like Libya (and Iraq) because you don't like the top man, don't be surprised when the country collapses into chaos. What is different this time is that Europe is so close to where the collapse is happening it's within touching distance. Italy is awash with illegal immigrants from Africa. Some are economic migrants, but increasingly they are from war-torn countries - you have to be pretty desperate to pay $$$ to take your chances in an inflatable crossing the Med. The number that come to the UK is a small fraction of the number that are coming into to Italy and Greece. https://fullfact.org/immigration/asylum-seekers-uk-and-europe/
  6. Oh look. Retail spending on non-essentials is falling because of inflation. I couldn't have told you that. Oh, wait a minute, I did!! Higher food prices sap British consumer spending https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/06/higher-food-prices-sap-british-consumer-spending
  7. All the pointing and tutting over Germany's trade surplus is simple jealousy. Can you imagine the rhetoric coming from Trump if the US were running a surplus of the same magnitude as Germany? The UK government crows whenever the UK runs a surplus (admittedly this is not often in the last few decades...) All nations desire a trade surplus - it's a great position to be in.
  8. Image, just for a moment, that the EU are actually quite good at negotiating and due to the size and nature of the Single Market, have a large amount of leverage with non-EU countries. By leaving the UK, the Brexit brains trust always presumed we could negotiate better deals (or at least as good) than we got by virtue of our EU membership. But what if our negotiators aren't really that good, and what if access to the UK isn't really all that big of a prize...? UK-US Open Skies talks hit Brexit turbulence https://www.ft.com/content/9461157c-1f97-11e8-9efc-0cd3483b8b80 The US is offering Britain a worse “Open Skies” deal after Brexit than it had as an EU member, in a negotiating stance that would badly hit the transatlantic operating rights of British Airways and Virgin Atlantic. Perhaps that Special Relationship isn't as special as we'd led to believe...
  9. Relax, you're the UK voted to show the establishment who's boss in the EU referendum. And then left the establishment to implement it. They are bound to make things peachy for the average punter. Will of the people init?
  10. You know, this is what happens when you destabilize a country right on Europe's doorstep. I'm very glad the UK wasn't involved in the collapse of Libya into chaos or the ongoing conflict in Syria...
  11. What an fabulous plan Theresa has for housing. Truly inspired. Blame everyone else and do sweet F.A. My advice to anyone who doesn't have a house would be to start sizing up a nice cardboard box and the one of the better bits of the local park in which to situate it - you ain't getting nuthin' from the current government!
  12. Also, house prices in Italy are reasonable... https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/price-gdp-per-cap Wait! How can that be the case with all the immigrants? Any fule kno that high house prices are due to high immigration...
  13. I take it you are new to Italian politics? As an aside, good to see that crusader for the common man Silvio Berlusconi do well. A real poke in the eye for the Italian establishment...
  14. The EU would be happy about Italy leaving - ideally leaving the Euro first - they can take their banks with them!
  15. McDonalds are having a great time as well. The middle class - who would have been going for the "aspirational" dining that Jamie Oliver, etc offered up - is shrinking. I'd be interested to know if the "high end" is holding up...
  16. Europe always gets the Tories in the end, it's contributed (in varying degrees) to the downfall of the last three Conservative PMs (Thatcher, Major and Cameron). It's going to take May down too. All Brexit was ever really about was trying to resolve differences in the Tory party, and reduce the voter "leakage" to UKIP.
  17. I love Theresa May's speeches. Every time she does one, Brexit gets softer and softer. By my reckoning, we are only two "big speeches" away from remaining in the EU!
  18. Sounds like sour grapes. Maybe you rubbed them up the wrong way (hard to believe I know...)?
  19. What have I got to do with it? A background of Alpine climbing when I was younger and running a small business for 20-odd year means I think planning is essential. You are suggesting we fly by the seat of our pants - tell us what you do that requires no plan? I think it was Benjamin Franklin who said... Fail to plan, plan to fail.
  20. I put it to you that you can fly by the seat of your pants because you are doing nothing of consequence and have (so far) been lucky. How do you fly by the seat of your pants if you run a car business that has to plan models four to five years in advance...? British manufacturing growth cools to eight-month low as production stutters https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/03/01/late-sell-off-wall-street-spooks-markets-traders-nervously-await/ Oh dear, the Brexit sugar rush is over. Now comes the headache...
  21. I would stretch that metaphor even further and say they can't even decide what flavour of crisps they want, or if they want straight or crinkle cut. Cracking speech by John Major yesterday. He used to look like a lightweight, but compared to people like Fox and Johnson (comparing the Irish border with a border between two London boroughs) he sounds like a political titan.
  22. I can tell you who used the mid range chains/franchises. Families and young people. Neither of those two groups have the same folding stuff they had before. Trouble is, our economy is built on them spending money. So far in the last twelve months we've had.: Huge drop-off in new car sales. Blood on the high street (Maplin, Toys R Us, MultiYork, Warren Evans, etc.) The failure of the biggest UK government contractor (Carillion) A drop-off in tube journeys. East Coast mainline franchise being handed back this April. Drop off in overall card spending (https://www.ft.com/content/a62ba8e2-0f1d-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb) - so it's not just "moving online". Unemployment starting to rise, which is odd since the EU migrants are leaving in droves.
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