Futuroid
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Posts posted by Futuroid
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12 minutes ago, kzb said:
But the OBR was wrong with its Brexit forcast. Minford claims his model was much closer to the truth.
He would.
Did his model predict a central bank intervention a few weeks after the vote and a slow decline of UK growth? Do you have a link to his 2018 economic forecasts?
Who do I believe... The further you get from the present, the harder it is to make accurate predictions about the future. I'd go with the OBR for the next year, then all bets are off because the deal / no deal and subsequent fallout could influence the economy quite drastically.
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4 minutes ago, macca13 said:
I keep telling you, 65% of our food is imported, 70% of our pollinating insects are dead, 1 warm summer and water shortages will not be far away.. there is only so many people the country can sustain.. when I was young there were bees, butterfly’s and native birds.. all dead..
and yet you evil lot want to kill more of the animals we share our planet with for money!
No more people.. no more concrete.. end it!
The economy is just a trick to make slavery legal.. we all need to wake up one day and just stay indoors, go down the park.. actually live our lives and stop this stupid economy nonsense..
Sod the economy.. great living standards can only be achieved with small populations.. more people will lead to even more homelessness, more crime. Lower living standards.. as it has continued to do since Blair the scum bag opened the boarders without any permission from the electorate.. he has made a lot of money from sliding living standards.. as has most of the remain elite..
We'll try again.
How is Brexit going to change any of this?
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3 hours ago, spyguy said:
For 'fragile states' all the top (bottom?) countries have very high birth rates.
South Sudan is ~5 kids.
Somalis 6.3 kids.
CAR 4.2 kids.
Tells a different story, doesnt it?
It tells the story of someone who doesn't know what they are talking about.
Only someone drunk, mad or with only a history book that extends 10 years into the past would suggest that Afghanistan and Iraq are "are as stable as theyve ever been."
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47 minutes ago, kzb said:
Well at least this lot are telling you why the treasury forecasts were wrong. They also claim their previous forecast was pretty accurate and certainly better than the Treasury, OBR and IMF forecasts.
But yes, I post these things primarily for our enjoyment, I personally don't expect it to conform to reality.
"Since the war there’s never been 5 consecutive years of GDP growth of 1.5% or below, as forecast today by OBR" - Faisal Islam
Well, if Brexit was about nostalgia sound like we are right on track. That's some impressive growth
"This means that despite almost no-one feeling like Britain's economy is going gangbusters, the @OBR_UK thinks we are actually outperforming what we can sustainably produce - that's the real pessimism underlying today's grim forecasts " - Torsten Bell, Resolution Foundation
Yes, it's looking pretty rosy. The only question now is how to spend that Brexit dividend. I know, how about on your essential bills when you get made redundant?
"OBR: Fairly high chance of a recession before 2023"
Oh, and just to sign off on a positive note...
"Not that much to be Tiggerish about here. Growth forecasts dreadful compared with what we thought in March 2016, dreadful by historical standards and dreadful compared with most of the rest of the world." - Paul Johnson, Directory IFS.
Pat yourself on the backs Brexiters - cos nobody else will...
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46 minutes ago, kzb said:
Brexit Bonus:
Government Borrowing to be in surplus by 2022
£25 billion p.a "Brexit Bonus" available for government spending, whilst still keeping below 60% GDP debt target.
Wait... weren't forecasts unreliable last week (you know, the ones that said every Brexit option would leave us poorer)?
Now they are reliable again! Hooray!
War is peace, freedom is slavery, Brexit is doubleplus good!
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18 hours ago, spyguy said:
Chart contradicts your statement.
Only Syria is at war - and thats a civil war too.
Ghan and Iraq are as stable as theyve ever been
Go home, you're drunk.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index
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16 minutes ago, jonb2 said:
Here's the thing. I have seen the light as a remainer, Brexit is unresolvable. NOTHING can change hearts and minds
I'll say it again. Until I am Red, White and Blue in the face.
For me, I see Brexit as misdirection by yet another loathsome, myopic and talentless government. They have got away with it. For now. The bad things that provoked Brexit are just going to get worse.
Here's the real rub though. There is nobody in Westminster that could lead us to a better place. They hate experts but are expert in running down the country.
The hardest of hard Brexits is the only solution. It really is.
Then from the rubble, we'll have some populist emerge - a Farage, but with jackboots - promising us another empire with tea and crumpets. It's the way the world is going - and those that hate the EU will be marching up the Mall and into the new dawn of emptiness with a grin on their face.
Couldn't have said it better.
All remain need to do to win, is:
1. Wait 5 years.
2. Change name from Remain to "Rejoin" .
Even IF (and it's a massive if) the people in positions of power in the UK were interested in making the changes that need to be made to ensure a more balanced and equitable economy, they simply won't have the time because they'll spend the next decade on wheel reinvention and firefighting.
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"British consumers tightened their belts in February, giving the weakest start to the year since 2012, figures from payments company Visa showed on Monday, raising the prospects that the broader economy will slow in the first quarter of 2018."
Not the time to be selling non-essentials in the UK.
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14 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:
We’ll be ok...
Yes, we'll be fine...
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Reading this thread is like watching kids when they're told Santa doesn't exist.
Is there any one of you who seriously thought May and the Conservatives were serious about building 300,000 new homes. To put that number into context, the only time in recorded UK history the country was building 300,000 homes was IIRC sometime in the 1970s and 40% of the homes being built were council houses.
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5 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:
Not sure of your point (presuming of course, there is a point)...
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2 hours ago, thehowler said:
Quite right...it's a fine concept, as long as you don't mind accepting lower wages (but i guess you could take your family/extended family with you to benefit from lower cost of living, if you can all move/find work there), and if your former employer offers you a job after laying you off, and if you don't mind learning Slovak.
Yes, of course that won't be applicable or even practical in all cases.
But when your work is outsourced to India, you have far fewer options. And the Indians or Chinese can undercut you because they use copied / pirated machinery, software / have no H&S, etc. Not to mention India / China, etc. aren't paying into the EU for things like structural funds.
Rather interestingly, all Patrick Miniford's analysis showing Britain benefitting from Brexit rely on pretty much writing a large chunk of the manufacturing sector as a lost cause ('cos we'll never cut costs far enough to compete in a zero tariff world) and lowering standards on product safety, etc.so we can compete in other areas.
A level playing field - of the lower common denominator.
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I know plenty of people who rent council houses and own dogs, so I don't think there is a direct correlation between dog ownership and home ownership.
I do wonder how on earth some people on low incomes support dogs having seen the vet's bills my best friend ended up with for his - £800 in the first 6 months!
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1 hour ago, GregBowman said:
Think it was tipped in the times as well
And you haven't joined the dots yet?
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5 hours ago, poohbear said:
Wow just wow.Our town has a Prezzo that's been saved and a Claire's and a New Look.
There is a bag shop that has a closing down sale.There will be another empty shop where Argos is going into Sainsburys.
Everyone laughs the town has something like 14 charity shops as it is,lots of coffee shops and phone shops,and it is not that big a town/City as it is.
It's good there are a lot charity shops on most UK high streets - I think people are going to be needing them in the next few years
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7 hours ago, pig said:
A screwed up housing bubble has been self-evident from at least 2004. And yet while some opinion has shifted, as with Brexit, I’ve still heard unbelievable guff about the merits of hpi or a hardly better passive credulity that that is ‘just the way things are’ rather than made.
Of course. Any astute observer of UK government interaction with/intervention in the housing market would surely agree that governments of both colours prioritise the housing market over pretty much all else in the UK.
Especially since the demographic who voted for Brexit overlaps neatly with the generation who benefited most from HPI (and also hold the most electoral power...)
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16 hours ago, kzb said:
Remember we are asking specifically why the Green Party would support the single market concept. They are supposed to believe in local production for local people after all. The whole idea of the single market is to facilitate, as much as possible, transport of goods and people over long distances.
Are you entirely familiar with the Single Market concept?
It guarantees the free movement of not only goods but also capital, services and labour.
What this means is that when the inevitable external competition means your employer relocates or closes your workplace, at least you can move with it. It also means the rules on state aid, employee rights, safety, etc are level within the Single Market.
Contrast this with the global market, where a populous country like India or China can massively undercut UK workers with not only lower wages, but also lower safety standards, no observation of IP, lower employee rights, etc. Far from undermining UK workers, the Single Market actually underpins them to some degree. If you do end up losing your job, at least you have the chance to follow it.
P.S. The distance from China to the UK is very slightly longer than the distance from Hungary to the UK.
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10 hours ago, DarkHorseWaits-NoMore said:
Looks like a promotion for a new Horror flick
Whaddya mean "looks like"...
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Global Britain or Little Britain?
UK could suffer a 'loss of trade' with around 40 countries on Brexit day, admits Liam Fox’s chief civil servant
Countries with existing deals negotiated by EU will be 'trying to get something else extra', Trade Secretary's adviser acknowledges
It's not personal. Just business.
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John Lewis and Waitrose owner reports 77% profit plunge
https://news.sky.com/story/john-lewis-and-waitrose-owner-reports-77-profit-plunge-11280757
Earnings were hit by a squeeze on profit margins at Waitrose thanks to the Brexit-linked weakness of the pound - which pushed up costs at the same time as the supermarket was trying to keep a lid on prices.
Ouch!
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20 minutes ago, kzb said:
I was asking the question basically. I thought they had recently changed to QMV so as not to have a repeat performance of this very problem?
You could be right - I seem to remember that it depends on the sectors/areas the trade deal covers - the EU is able to sign off on some, but not all. QMV doesn't get the UK off the hook though - they still need something that appeals to a qualified majority of countries.
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HMS Cake 2.0 has exploded on the launch pad.
Oh well, May's speech was always about smoothing things over within the Conservative party, nobody in Europe, or the world outside of the Tories, thought it had any legs.
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2 hours ago, kzb said:
I thought the EU parliament vote would now be QMV (qualified majority voting)?
In other words it should not be possible for a single nation to derail the settlement. They do not ALL need to agree. It does not need to be unanimous.
Did each country parliament need to pass the recent deal with Canada (CETA)?
Yes, they did - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/24/eu-trade-deal-with-canada-collapses-as-belgium-refuses-to-sign
Once the UK leaves the EU, it becomes a "third country" just like any other.
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He took out a jumbo mortgage and maxxed out his credit cards to snap up a nice two bed new build flat for half a million. He's thinking of expanding his "portfolio" and now he talks about mad gainz with strangers at bus stops.
It's like the bit at the end of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
Brexit What Happens Next Thread ---multiple merged threads.
in House prices and the economy
Posted
The article states..
"Unilever was shaken by a $143bn takeover bid last year from Kraft Heinz of the US. It fought off the approach but since then, Paul Polman, Unilever’s chief executive and a critic of Brexit, has lobbied the UK government for “a level playing field” in takeover rules.
Mrs May hinted at a more interventionist approach with a pledge in the Conservative party manifesto to prevent takeovers motivated by “aggressive asset-stripping or tax avoidance”.
But then...
"However, within days of becoming prime minister in 2016, the £24bn takeover of UK technology company Arm Holdings by Japan’s SoftBank was waved through as “a vote of confidence in Britain”."
After which she did sweet F.A. That Conservative manifesto sure was fake news and of course, good to know Mrs May helped this one along personally! The exit of the UK's third biggest company by value - happy, happy days!