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Futuroid

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Everything posted by Futuroid

  1. No, he wasn't part of that splinter group, but he repeated their claims, as HairyOb1's link shows. He also says that there would be £10Bn available to spend, which is a lie as well!
  2. We are uncharted territory now. There has never been a serving government of this country with so little competence. From Philip Hammond: "The cabinet has had general discussions about our Brexit negotiations, but we haven’t had a specific mandating of an end-state position." They don't even know what they are aiming for yet, so it's hardly surprising that they keep contradicting each other and getting their tiny brains all muddled up (today - Hammond says "we'll be paying our dues deal or no deal", 30 mins later Downing Street says "no deal, no dosh"). The UK will be roasted by the likes of the US or even NZ in trade negotiations if this is the calibre of our political representation.
  3. Germany haven't decided to leave the EU. Which makes quite a difference given that it's a mammoth undertaking that has been likened in complexity to the moon landings (by none other than the hero of the cerebrally challenged). I would say that Germany with no government will probably make better decisions than the UK with the present one
  4. All that time we thought they were doing nothing and just winging it, they were... "Davis says ministers took decision to leave customs union without analysis of economic impact" https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/dec/06/david-davis-questioned-by-brexit-committee-about-impact-assessments-politics-live?page=with:block-5a27c5e84cd919066cd81b90#block-5a27c5e84cd919066cd81b90
  5. Of course. But during the referendum campaign there was only black and white, no grey. It was all so cut and dried, and so easy - we could have it all. What many people think of as legislation driven by "political" ideal, is in many cases due to harmonisation of rules and regulations to facilitate trade. How could a "common market" possibly work without freedom of movement for example? Employers who could set up shop in a lower wage country would be able to sell their products or services into the market at a lower price, making employees in the target market unemployed and giving them no right to either "follow their job" or relocate to another country where there may be jobs.
  6. Oh dear. The only question now is who is going to go first, DD or TM? David Davis admits UK Government has not done Brexit impact assessments for different economic sectors http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-davis-brexit-impact-assessments-uk-economy-sectors-industry-eu-withdrawal-mps-select-committee-a8094481.html
  7. Farage knew this, which is why he talked about the Norway option as being likely. Turns out he didn't spend all of his time in the European Parliament in the bar after all. The only way hard Brexit would have flown would have been if May didn't activate Article 50 and put in place a 5+ year plan to implement it. The biggest irony is that it was the Hard Brexiteers who were the most vocal forcing May's hand. I heard one US friend describe Brexit as being like a tantrum from a 4yr old, the negotiations are proving that day after day! The current Irish border debacle shows up David Davis, Theresa May and everyone else involved in the Brexit negotiations to be the intellectual and political minnows they really are.
  8. Dave, how are you in favour of Corbyn (who proposes to get rich citizens funding poor citizens), but you aren't in favour of this at an international level... cognitive dissonance of olympic standard..?
  9. Oh Dave, oh Dave, where does trade end and politics begin? This is especially true when you are talking about services - which might involve people. As for soft Brexit - it's the only form that is deliverable without crashing the UK economy. Hard Bexit could be delivered but will cause a severe economic shock.
  10. You know, I thought Theresa May promised a red, white and blue Brexit. Now it looks like we're getting an orange one!
  11. Well, they took back control and showed the establishment a thing or two. Oh yeah! Bankers’ bonus cap could end after Brexit, says Carney https://www.ft.com/content/dea0611c-d51c-11e7-a303-9060cb1e5f44 Doncha just hate it when all that EU red tape gets in the way?
  12. I think that's not far off the mark. If anything the EU has acted as a damper, preventing huge swings to the right or left from taking place quickly. If we didn't have the FPTP electoral system (rubber stamped as the thing to have by the great unwashed in a referendum earlier in the decade) we would have less need of that function.
  13. Er, what? How exactly is "the veil of lies" gone? Please show your working out.
  14. Yes, and the forecasts were predicated on immediate issuance of Article 50 (which is what Dodgy Dave said he'd do). But in the end, does it really matter if it takes us 12 months or 36 months to get to where "Project Fear" said we'd be?
  15. Dude, send your calculator back. It doesn't work. And for our £8Bn we get complete tariff and quota access to the biggest trade block in the world. Davis' £100Bn won't give us that.
  16. WARNING! WARNING! EXPERT OPINION AHEAD. NOT FOR BE:LEAVERS £300 million a week: The output cost of the Brexit vote Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, Moritz Schularick, Petr Sedláček "It is hard to calculate the current cost of Brexit, because there is no obvious counterfactual. This column calculates the cost by letting a matching algorithm determine which combination of comparison economies best resembles the pre-referendum growth path of the UK economy. The difference in output between the UK economy and its synthetic doppelganger adds up to a loss of 1.3% of GDP, or close to £300 million per week, since the vote took place. This implies a cumulative cost of more than £60 billion by the end of 2018." http://voxeu.org/article/300-million-week-output-cost-brexit-vote
  17. You can rationalise it any way that comforts you, the drop in real wages is directly related to the surge in inflation caused by the drop in the value of the pound. As for protest votes - sometimes when you shake sh*t up, you just get covered in sh*t
  18. It can be singled out - it caused the precipitous drop in the value of GDP that in turn fed into increased inflation causing real wages to fall. The thing is, it's not over yet, not by a long chalk.
  19. Sorry, I should have been clearer. No it doesn't solve the Ireland issue - it merely allows them to defer it. The solution is still probably going to be NI staying in the customs union, but I would imagine they (the Tories) are hoping to strengthen their position (new election?, new leader?, new coalition partners?) before the decision has to be made. Diluting the influence of the DUP.
  20. A minor divergence, but while the real economy struggles (making a selling stuff, doing stuff for people), there is at least some good news this morning: Value of UK's housing stock soars past £6tn https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/nov/29/value-of-uks-housing-stock-soars-past-6tn#comment-108939110 "Biggest rises of the past decade seen in London and the south-east, with the over-55s holding almost two-thirds of the wealth" Hmmm, I wonder how Brexit will address this? If you don't own a home, you'd better hope it does because the big Brex is going to cause a decade long distraction from every other issue. "Sorry guv, no money for council houses, got Brexit to pay for avven't I".
  21. The rumour is that the UK has capitulated big stylee on the "divorce settlement" in order to avoid having to leave NI in the customs unions which would upset the DUP and therefore destabilize May's fragile, enfeebled government. Which if true, means the DUP has cost the UK taxpayer something to the tune of £20-30bn. Or in leaver terms, enough to build around 35 state-of-the art new NHS hospitals.
  22. Not sure how this can be the case, given that we hold all the cards, but it appears the UK has been pwned! This is probably fake news but... Brexit talks: for all Britain's bluster, the EU has it over a barrel https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/28/brexit-talks-for-all-britains-bluster-the-eu-has-it-over-a-barrel "Michel Barnier no longer even pretends he is in negotiation with Britain, preferring to describe his demands for sufficient progress on these issues as a series of immovable legal hurdles." Now, about that £350 million a week for the NHS...
  23. June 2016 doesn't appear on your chart though? Here is real wage growth (ONS), wages growing nicely in 2015... then in 2016... then falling mysteriously in October 2016? Brexit was probably the straw that broke the camel's back.
  24. I hope you're sitting down for this one... Furniture maker Multiyork enters administration, putting 500 jobs at risk https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/nov/22/jobs-risk-furniture-maker-multiyork-administration After all this excitement you might need to lie down: https://news.sky.com/story/feather-black-follows-multiyork-into-administration-11147073
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