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House Price Crash Forum

tep1

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Everything posted by tep1

  1. Starting to see the impact in the south east at the top end now. More overpriced property coming to market and then within weeks, huge reductions. Just an example: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/77542950
  2. Your financial bloke yearns for the years of when the 3-6-3 Rule applied in banking.
  3. I dont buy the big sob story. Rates even at current mortgage SVR are still at historical lows. And lets face it, more than likely, his interest rate repayment is still far less than rental values in the area. His bank has provided options for a holiday but that obviously has a cost associated with it. Title should read "man wants cake and wants to eat as well! " But what do you expect from a brexity, tory backing paper. Tories are friends of the banks, so I expect no further action is intended.
  4. Some, not all. See cyclical and defensive stocks as a reference point to beat inflation. But i hear some II's are bullish on consumer and commodities this time. Trick is to find good value companies avoid overvalued tech stock.
  5. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the recovery is "uneven and far from complete." While he noted that inflation pressures could rise in the coming months, these "one-time increases in prices are likely to only have transitory effects on inflation." April 2021. -- So they are expecting an initial rise to peak and drop back below 2%! Whereas Berkshire Hathaway are reporting seeing inflationary impacts to their supply chains on the ground already, "supply shortages" in commodities such as oil, timber etc are producing a shortage in finished, semi-finished goods elongating lead times for supply. Combine supply shortages with increased stimulus (helicopter money), government infrastructure spending and interest rates at 0% (igniting consumerism) will escalate inflation out of control. -- inflation can only be brought under control if interest rates rise, hence tip the balance back to saving rather than spending. So allow me to disagree, this is what the fed want! Since the very last thing the Fed want is to raise interest rates. Markets don't set interest rates via the bond market (Fed has done this via QE); but the fed will be forced to in the event of inflation rising out of their control. I do agree with your point IRs will probably need to rise quickly in this scenario. But a caveat, inflation figures are fudged to the point that what happens on the ground isnt reflected in public sector pay packets. So I doubt we will ever know the true extent of actual inflation nor an appropriate IR setting. To end this madness we need IRs to be kept above 2% to drive investors away from speculative asset bubbles and into more safer inflation beating returns (bond market).
  6. Feds asleep at the wheel. Boe are no different imho. If we do get interest rate rises i expect asset bubbles including tech stock and crypto to suffer big.
  7. magical money tree or modern monetary theory - take your pick.
  8. I've 2 cars purchased from new since the wife has found the 2nd car useful for coordinating kids club, school and getting to and from work. Cars are both 9 and 16 years old. The 16 year old (audi a4 s-line diesel manual gearbox) has 115K on the clock and still going strong, but I've refurbed the engine in the last 2 years for a sizeable amount. I thought it was worth it considering the outlay for a new car and starting again. However, since working from home its rarely used <5k a year in the last 2 years. With all the servicing, depreciation, MOT, tyres, and repairs (incl. the recent one) during ownership it has cost me roughly 170/month. However, probably an additional benefit to being self employed is I've been fortunate enough to claim half that mileage as an expense. You factor that in and it definitely makes sense to own the car outright.
  9. I was fortunate to have 50% holdings in cash prior to the covid dip and made a return on this. Since the bounce some have returned to profit and others still marginally down. I seek value and generally hold for longer term so I try not to get too worried by it. I've been in two minds on what is to come. If no return to austerity and instead, huge investment in greener infrastructure, maybe the right type of economic driven inflation with a gradual rise in interest rates will follow. My other head is very bearish on all this furlough (unemployment) and government spending.
  10. Couldn't agree more. But still can't help being tempted by this guy during this current mockery/shambles of UK politics.
  11. Here maybe a way to erode wealth of those who have gained vastly from property price increases. If they do fall dramatically, this cohort often with far less loan-to-value ratio, will have more to lose.
  12. Carnegie's "How to Win Friends and Influence People" comes to mind!
  13. Its definitely not a perpetual motion machine nor simple technology. There are commercial plants running with this patented technology already plugged into the grid and running for the last 10 years waiting for the investment move away from fossil fuels.
  14. Lucky sod @TheCountOfNowhere. You have now the nice dilemma, albeit very emotive one, of when to sell and capitalize your gains. I agree with your energy/commodities advice with a lean on green/carbon neutral. But in saying that oil is going nowhere fast. chip crisis will impact electric car production in the near term. I still feel outside the tech bubble there are a few value blue-chip stocks still paying a great income and which will benefit from a interest rate hike.
  15. Hey, thanks @Si1 ! I am man of science already familiar with brown's gas and the conspiracy on Stanley Meyer! My question was a little too facetiously put. Renewable hydrogen can be supplied using gasification technology converting waste-to-hydrogen. Other renewables like solar and wind-powered can electrolyze hydrogen, but these solutions require vast space for solar panels. Gasification technology also solves the waste crisis and carbon negative. The cost is relatively low since raw materials acquired for the process is usually cost-negative. Usually fees are paid by municipalities to take the waste away. Think about that for a minute and then think Biden’s $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan to focus on green energy and decarbonization.
  16. Why do you need electricity to create hydrogen ?
  17. Good for you I am mortgage free as well. I dont care so much since the stock market pays the rent 8 times over.
  18. Instead, many people voted for a tory party that has many truly awful people in its ranks.
  19. Yes it does. Where do you get a IO mortgage these days allow you to outlay less than 5% at an affordable interest rate?
  20. Housing sector and imputed rent is becoming a big makeup of UK GDP. Government are borrowing fantasy levels of debt to save the country since Brexit and Covid. Its all about making the government debt to GDP ratio look rational. Welcome to the Banana Republic of UK. Our despotic government is further evidence of that!
  21. I think we''ve discussed opportunity costs on another board.
  22. https://apnews.com/article/economy-gross-domestic-product-coronavirus-business-health-8f0e1c51128f4f7fc95f35ae9cea57c0 Surely interest rates have to rise. 6.4% wtf!
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