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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by tep1

  1. 2 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    Dont you just hate a smart arse.

    I've started using median values because the average is being skewed by top end listings and london.

    London average asking price is 2x the national average and has 1/5th of the total properties

    We dont have  1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 7, 7


    we have 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,200,900,1000.

    haha heres hoping for those numbers after the crash so I can afford all of them. 

  2. The deluded middle classes driven purely by how much their houses are worth, somewhat forget hpi doesnt make you wealthy unless you've got multiple homes and are living debt free.

    I've concluded hpc will benefit society broadly with a better cost of living for the working classes and increase social cohesion. If it wipes out a few smug middle class homeowners overleveraged on debt in the process then let it be a lesson. 

  3. I've been tracking surrey 4+ bedroom houses for many years as an forecast indicator of the wider market since its the premium end of the middle class housing market. What I've found the numbers always fluctuates between 1000 and 1500 depending on how good/bad the wider housing market is doing. As a crude metric I've found that in very good times stock for sale will drop below 1000 and in very bad times rises above 1500. In the last 6 months stock for sale has gone from 800 -> 1400. 

  4. 3 minutes ago, Roman Roady said:

    Indian workers in any field tend to be of a highly variable standard. Some are excellent, but some are woeful. Its a total lottery and IMPO is a false economy and in the long term, a waste of time and money.

    Our education system needs to meet the needs of our economy.

    Indian resources are vastly poor in comparison to European equivalents. Its the quality v quantity debate. Resource costs look inviting on a per head comparison but the consequence is usually more resources are required to overcome the quality gap. In my experience indian companies overpromise and most always underdeliver. 

  5. Ah the good ole Brexit free market tripe that was banded about as a benefit. But the tories were only ever concerned about making labor a free market. All other markets are cornered thanks to lobbyists and kickbacks to politicians. Immigration numbers will go through the roof in the new post brexit landscape to ensure labor costs are kept to a minimum and employee rights continue to race to the bottom.

    <sarcasm>But thats ok the proletariat can all afford to be out of work because house wealth pays them to do so. </sarcasm>

  6. On 03/03/2022 at 12:37, highcontrast said:

    Thanks @tep1, much appreciated. Would you recommend leveraged ETFs?

    (Disclaimer...haven't checked if Wisdom tree offer leveraged anyway, I've come across granite who do do leveraged but think they are different markets?)

    In my younger years when i could handle the stress of trading maybe I would have a different answer for you. But now i have a fulltime job, kids and other hobbies, its far easier to pick a stock based on eps and dividend yield and let income and hopefully the capital gain return over defined time. I find this approach (Warren Buffet's also) over time the most successful. I have screening tools to inform me on the best turnaround stock picks.  But energy and commodity miners are best at present. 

    But as the say you are your own destiny - the very best of luck to you sir!

  7. 1 hour ago, Sour Mash said:

    It should be obvious to all by now that maintaining high asset prices - houses in particular -  is a matter of government policy (ANY government you vote for).  It's probably the major policy at this point.  House prices (via mortgage borrowing) are a key driver of credit creation in the UK.

    Don't sit around biding your time thinking that the market will 'correct' nicely at some stage,  plunging house prices will be a direct sign that the economy is collapsing out of any sort of control.

    Either take a bet that the government can keep this going (buy) or find somewhere to park your wealth for the economic disaster that is going to come.

    You mean exacerbate the problem by going out and buying anyway.  

  8. 4 minutes ago, fellow said:

    You can't destroy they currency without destroying the economy.

    Precisely this. People will put off spending and the economy will weaken.

    The markets have already baked an interest rate rise in for March and furthermore over the course of this year. What happens if they don't? Then expect more inflation. It will spiral. 

  9. 30 minutes ago, Staffsknot said:

    Its no different than him owning shares in a company and shouting you should all buy this... except as it drives a coach & horses through all the AML regs it could be regulated out of existance very quickly

    Only companies have earnings that are distributed to shareholders in the form of dividends. 


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