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House Price Crash Forum

[email protected]%GY

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  1. Hello All, long time no posting... There's a pretty astonishing statement from Fionnuala in the last paragraph of page 2 of the Nationwide press release. Here she is implicitly calling a 25% drop in real terms from now to the trough, which isn't a statement I've seen from her before or indeed any other VI analysts. No explanation of course about why 25% is the "right" number. And I doubt we'll see any mainstream media dig into this statement. Nevertheless it is an indicator of where her thoughts lie, and I expect to see far more VI analysts start to call the timing and depth of the trou
  2. 1) Private 2) £2000 3) 5 4) Surrey 5) £750,000
  3. I have to say that the IMF study is rather too technical for me, but one thing that did strike me was the methodology for identifying booms and busts - basically they rank them all by size and say the top 25% of bull or bear markets count as 'booms' or 'busts'. Seems rather arbitrary to me and casts a shadow over that headline of "40% of HP booms are followed by busts". Here is the extract on the methodology, and shouldnt the bit I have bolded read 'trough-peak'? can anyone explain? (the extract is from p89 of the report)
  4. This is correct, there were not large nominal falls but there were large real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) falls. The main Halifax index which the IG bets are based on is in nominal terms.
  5. How can you tell if its oversold? The MAR-06 mid price for the UK index is only 3.5% below the MAR 05 close. It'll be interesting to see if the book gets closed again.
  6. It occurred to me that if she does sell her BTL flats (which seems the only way out of her predicament) then she would also risk losing her only job - the 'Tales of a Landlady'column. She could hardly carry on with no properties... So to change tack and ride the zeitgeist in the other direction would be a cunning plan...
  7. I've read Rosie Millard's relentlessly bullish and ill-informed comments on the BTL business for some time. This mea culpa really is an amazing turnaround, and I think will be the first of many such pieces we will see in the press. We are tipping into recession and the key thing to watch is the changing attitude to saving. All it takes is for the population to save an extra few percent of their income and spend a few percent less. No sign that Rosie's column is coming to an end. In time she will draw the inevitable conclusion that she has to sell her BTL investments and that process should be
  8. The seasonal increase in transactions is entirely normal and continued throughout previous downturns. The only point worth considering is that demand is ~35% down year-on-year and supply is 30% up. Prices will continue to fall by 0.5% a month on average. Look at one month and this looks like stability. Look at 12 months though...
  9. Bit of a shocker for the soft landing camp. GfK Consumer Confidence barometer out tomorrow as well, but I wouldn't expect to see such a big miss. Retailers are squealing and still discounting like mad (did the January sales ever end?) - consumers probably feel quite happy (unless they work in retail..). Looks like recession in 2006 to me. Full text: LONDON (Reuters) - Retail sales fell in March at their sharpest pace in six months, a survey has shown, in another sign that consumers spending is running out of steam after five interest rate hikes in 1-1/2 years. The Confederation of British
  10. Once price benchmark might be to take Q3 2001 values (when base rates were at same level as now) and the property bubble mania had not yet gone berserk. Using Land Registry data, Detached in Lincolnshire Q4:04 £188K. In Q3:01, £106K. A 77% increase. Consumer Price Inflation would explain about 7% of that and real wage growth another 5%. That would give you a 'fair' value estimate today of £119k, 37% below the actual Q4:04 value. Another way to look at might be to apply the average annual % gain in UK property in real (inflation adjusted) terms since 1950. The figure is +3.5%. So since Sep
  11. This programme had me cheering on the sofa. Apart from the disastrous woman's story, what struck me was the general assumption all the way through that property prices in the UK have peaked and are now falling. This sort of stuff has to rub off on people. As for the investors in Bulgaria, they deserve to be quickly parted from their cash. One said "Bulgaria will soon join the EU and then the Germans and Poles will come and live here and prices will shoot up." I would have thought that as soon as they join, all the Bulgarians will be off to Germany or here...
  12. Sold Feb 2004, completed March 04. I think 8-10 years to the bottom for the national averages, and ~20 years to recover the 2004 peaks. London & south east will bottom first and bounce relatively quickly. I think those areas rising fastest in 04 (N. Ireland, Wales, N. East etc) see sharp falls and a bathtub shaped recovery...
  13. I have a frind in SW london. Put property on market in Sep. very few viewings and no offers. In Feb changed EA and dropped asking price 7%, and got an offer at that price this week.
  14. Looking at the CML date, number of approvals for Feb is normally down sequentially so no big surprise. Y-on-Y change though is -32%. Completely consistent with all the other demand measures like RICS.
  15. This is the nub of the argument among most serious economists. I agree in thinking the BoE seems unbelievably complacent in assuming that the economy will achieve a soft landing because this correlation seems to have broken down. The Economist discussed this back in October, and below is a chart they used. What is interesting about the last 80s compared to now, is then the correlation broke down with consumer spending outpacing HPI, and now the opposite is true. This is why the bulls argue that the economy has not overheated because of HPI. My view is that following the stock market crash we
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