jo_gian
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Everything posted by jo_gian
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I meant a year. But it is still like a mortgage, a grand per month.
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You just summed it up nicely what the EU gave to the once richer countries - exactly nothing. Less jobs, more people, more debt, net contribution to EU. In the meantime poorer countries takes all the jobs and the knowledge coming with it + they get some nice sum from the EU on top of it. Just a few points on the brighter side. 1. In these countries there is much less talent, they already have issues with available cheap workforce. 2. Salaries are skyrocketing there, 5-10% yearly while pound is going down. 3. There is still a slight disadvantage due to language. The problem is that UK government actually discourages people from getting educated and trying to have a career by encouraging speculation (they call it attracting investment and business). Show me a person who can buy that semi detached for 700K and start his family just by being educated and having a job. And on top of it tuiton fees are now 9.5 grand per term. Who would want to learn, when it is only property speculators or maybe bankers can afford living in london? The only way out from this is to transforming to "something else" as theresa may would say. Lower pound to be more competitive, lower asset prices and lower tution fees so young people can see some kind of a future if they get educated and get a good job. We also need much lower asset prices to allow them to start families sooner and then more people will eventually mean more basis for wealth. An asset price reset would do almost all of these. We still could do it, A LOT of the big US tech companies bought HQ's in london since brexit due to low pound, as talent is still here, but we need to act soon, before we lose the trust.
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lol are you trolling? ALL new factories have been going to east europe for a very long time. Audi, mercedes, etc. ALL bank backoffice jobs are going to east europe. Look it up, jp morgan poland, morgan stanley hungary, etc. They've started there in 2004-2006 with the headcount of 1 after EU went east and by now there are tens of thousands of highly paid jobs there. And they want to double/triple the headcount in the forecoming years. These jobs are gone regardless of brexit. For the jobs staying here you have a lot more people competing, due to immigration from those countries, pushing down your wages. Plus brits pay a lot into EU while EE takes out money... Plus brits pay the bailout to the banks, while they are transferring the jobs to somewhere else... I just dont beleive there are british people wanting to remain, when a hardest possible brexit is what britain needs. Not WTO terms, but WTO terms + 20% on top of it. Manufacturing, backoffice and most finance jobs are lost anyway. You need a very hard brexit, so pound goes down and they might even bring back some if the jobs. And as there are no EU regulations anymore you can protect your - now much cheaper - UK assets by banning/taxing foreign ownership of things. If tech giants and research need talent they will come here anyway, as developments, software, research activities are not products that are traded, there are no customs to be paid. Especially true if pound falls due to hard brexit. WTO terms + 20% - so some low skilled work might worth doing in britain, low pound - so some low skilled work will come back to britain, extreme amounts into education of british, extreme amounts into technology and research, that's the recipe.
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They value the pay and conditions much more than a british person. For them 10-17 GBP per hour is like net 6-7 grand for the average brit - they will come in even when being ill. Also in their home countries it's like you don't show up -> you don't have to come next day. And the boss handles them like pieces of shit, so the UK construction industry is like a dream compared to where they are coming from. So they actually like and value the work in the UK, that's why they show better work ethic.
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I don't really understand what is the plan of the EU. Let's say Le Pen and Geert do not win this time, then what? In 4-5 years time there are election times again and as EU don't want to handle the underlying issues the situation will be way worse, so it's a guaranteed EU sceptic win in multiple EU countries. Instead of bashing the UK they should realise we are right and they HAVE TO deal with the immigration and growing inequality. Even if EU does not fall apart this year, it will in 5 years time...
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What we have today is a huge disparity between asset prices and wages. Central banks and gov want inflation. QE and low interest rates intentionally pushed up asset prices to their new, inflated level, lets say its 100% more than before. Their expectations are that sooner or later wages will adjust to this new level, so in the end they created a huge inflation with all the QE and low interest rates. Gov need inflation so it does not need to bear the consequences of taking on too much debt. Due to the growing gap between everything vs wages, the pressure on people is increasing (this mounting pressure on you is intentionally created by central banks and governments), now two things can happen either wages pick up very soon, so they will match higher asset prices at some point or people will start defaulting on their debt and asset prices will adjust to the unchanged level of wages and all that QE and low interest rate free money will disappear. That's the reason central bankers won't raise rates even if inflation goes up to 10%. They want 10% inflation, they actually want way more than that, so they will find a lot of excuses. The only measure we need to watch is wage inflation, if it starts to rise, central bankers won the bottle and they will rob our savings once again. If wages are not improving people will eventually start defaulting on debt and asset prices will reset. The only issue is that our savings are still in the hand of bankers at that point when banks go bust. So there is no way out, we are fcuked either way by our leaders and central bankers. The only way to make sure the system cannot be abused like this is to repay all state debt, publicly shame any government who takes on any debt and make sure all bankers get a life sentence in case of their banks cannot cough up peoples deposit at any point. By the way there is nothing new in these things, in the US state debt has been repaid and central bank has been eradicated multiple times in history due to exactly the same reasons. People knew this all 200 years ago...
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Everyone on this planet targets the young ones when trying to make money. They have no experience and are unprepared - for them everything is new. You can sell them the "dream", movies, pop stars and a pile of bricks for a million. It is very hard to resist the temptation when you are young and haven't figured out things, especially when even the government pushes them towards taking on unseen levels of debt (in real terms). I can't blame the young ones, it is the older generation who are exploiting their own children and when they can't reproduce themselves in enough numbers due to the financial stress and the extreme levels of exploitation, they are just replaced by immigrants. When asset prices are higher in real terms, our own children will have to work and save up for much longer time to have the same assets, so they will start their families much later than their parents -> that means less children for them. The most shameful thing today is that everyone in remote countries seems to have human rights, but no one take cares of their own children. They can drown in debt, they can be exploited by banks, and we don't care if they are not allowed to have their own children. Where are the human rights of this generation and the tens of millions of never born children of our own???
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Times front page - Housing market slumps
jo_gian replied to Patient London FTB's topic in House prices and the economy
Sorry, I don't read your posts. Hopefully exactly the same happens with a lot more owners, they suddenly realise top of the market is here (well, it's gone) and suddenly they want to downsize and milk someone else for as much as they can. And then millions of houses will come to the market and chains will just fall apart cause people at the bottom with cash will realise if they wait a bit more they will get more for their money. If you check the numbers you have like 1.5 months until nationwide and halifax index turns zero or negative - unless prices start increasing - the real panic will start from there. In your place I would just sell it 10-15% lower, you still made a lot. -
Times front page - Housing market slumps
jo_gian replied to Patient London FTB's topic in House prices and the economy
Strange that up until now you have been happy with your big house appreciating each year, now that the market turns you are suddenly a poor victim who wants to move, but is not able. Since 2010 prices went up 50% in Dorking, my suggestion is that you lower the price with just half of your mad gainz, let's say 25% and then you will have a taker for sure, but if you lower it with the whole 50% I am sure someone will buy it within 1 day. It's not liquidity problem, there are always takers if the price is right, its a greed problem. -
Just plain lies. Yes, you can find a few properties in ANY countries for millions, but the average is nowhere near 300K euros, whatever you say.
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If someone wouldn't know these links: https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/region_rankings.jsp?title=2017®ion=150 https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp
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Lol that 300K euro flat is very close to the absolute top in bucharest, you should compare it with the 3M euro flats in London. That's more closer to the truth: https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Romania&country2=United+Kingdom&city1=Bucharest&city2=London
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"BoE feels it has latitude to place a higher value on economic stability" BoE does not care about economic stability, the role of central banks is to provide stability only to the financial world regardless of what happens with people and real economy. Their purpose is to turn off free market mechanisms and make sure no banks can go bust, regardless of how greedy they are, so people do not lose their deposit and does not burn down all banks. So they can just milk us for more and more money forever. That's the big idea, that's exactly the reason central banks have been originally created for, its there in all economic history books. If BoE would care about economic stability, people or any meaningful purpose it would print money for REAL businesses, to fight diseases or to build houses for people etc. Just calculate how much cheap houses US could've built from the 16 trillion dollar spent on bank bailouts up until now. You get a shockingly high number that would've solved ALL housing problem in the US for the foreseeable future. Instead of doing this they just gave it away to banks to maintain the financial sectors privileged status. Governments assist central banks in these things so they get their inflation values, which makes it possible for the government to get into more and more debt and buy the cheap votes of people who are addicted to free unearned money.
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Really. They don't earn too much so most of them live in a crappy flatshare with a bunch of idiots, in a country which they don't like, with zero hope of ever settling down, far from family etc... They are actually counting back the days they have to spend here like "how many more weeks do I have to work to get that house at home", "when will I have enough money to move back and live with my family" etc... Falling pound and increasing wages in their home countries (~50% up in the last decade) are exactly the things that will get them moving. They never wanted to stay anyway, they just needed a reason.
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The only reason for immigration in all countries is to replace the never born children of the financially exploited middle class with someone else. You can increase asset prices if you increase the level of financial exploitation. You can do it if you have more and more people fighting for their basic needs on a limited stock. If people in your country need to save up until their forties to get a one bed flat, they will have much less time for reproduction, less children, so you need immigrants to replace their unborn children. This is how politics are using us, our children and immigrants to generate wealth, so that their numbers look good. Everyone talks about the few hundred poor refugee children, but no one talks about the unborn tens of millions of OUR children, who are not even existing due to the financial exploitation going on. The only purpose of immigrants is to have more people fighting for the same stock. We don't give them free houses, they don't earn too much - we just "help" them to come here and then let them suffer in the same way as our own people, they can just fight here with everyone else for the good life, so our asset prices can stay high. They are also victims just like us and once they realise this, now that will be the basis of radicalisation. This whole system is the biggest scam of the last 50 years, crime against your own people, crime against humanity in the name of banks, wealth and greed against tens (maybe hundreds) of millions.
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Sterling may become the Swiss franc on steroids.
jo_gian replied to durhamborn's topic in House prices and the economy
No one can really predict what happens they say in finance all the risks are almost instantly priced in so there is an equal chance of going up and going down at any moment. Brexit is more or less priced in and everyone is aware of it, frexit, nexit, grexit etc... is not yet. Also don't underestimate Putin, some say he made trump president, you can take it for sure he will make 10x effort to destabilize EU now that the once in a lifetime opportunity is here. Once EU has fallen and US is not an enemy anymore Putin can do whatever he wants in eastern europe and ukraine. We had several articles about EU politicans stating city cannot be moved from London just like that, cannot be fully reproduced at anywhere else and that it is actually better for the EU if it stays where it is now, so I wouldn't be suprised if playing hardball from EU side would've been just an attempt to fuel the powers opposing brexit within the UK in the hope of triggering article 50 actually never happens. Once it actually happens they will need to instantly secure the position of EU companies having all the finances with London, so I wouldn't be surprised if an extension for the passport would be already in place for at least 5 years a few weeks after article 50. And in 5 years all these politicans will be gone from both sides so anything can happen. I exchanged EUR to GBP at 1.13, could't resist the GBP gains, so I really hope it does not fall to equality or it rebounds fast. -
Falling pound makes it less worthwhile to come here, ppl can save the same amount in Germany which is much closer to their families. If pound falls 10-20% more no one will even consider coming here from the eu.
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FED Inflation report tops 2%
jo_gian replied to TheCountOfNowhere's topic in House prices and the economy
Carney, Hammond etc. said million times that's how QE works, they pump up asset prices first then the inflation caused by asset prices will spread to other areas and finally wages, that's how it is intended to work. They won't raise rates once this starting to happen, they will rather wait while wages get to a healthy level compared to the new level of nominal house prices, regardless of how big inflation is. Unless a black swan event happens this is what will happen, so better get used to the fact that your savings will worth much less in the future and anyone bought a house with huge mortgage will laugh in the end. It's sad, but that's how it was always planned. -
FED Inflation report tops 2%
jo_gian replied to TheCountOfNowhere's topic in House prices and the economy
I suspect they will do anything to avoid raising rates. Even if inflation will hit 4-5%, they won't raise. This 20% drop in the value of the pound is a godsend gift for them, they will wait a few years until this 20% will be reflected in wages so that housing will look 20% cheaper without causing a crash in nominal values, so mortgage holders are not affected. As a side effect all our savings will worth 20% less. I think that's their intended solution for the housing crisis. -
Tories admit that the housing market is broken
jo_gian replied to OnionTerror's topic in House prices and the economy
There is another article on the guardian just below this one with hitting a totally different tone, saying major changes in planning + building on greenbelt will be allowed. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/05/housing-white-paper-green-belt-solution-to-housing-crisis I suspect the "tories gave up on house ownership" comes only from the author of the article, but I'd wait that whitepaper on Tuesday. Now that the market seems to slow, tax will increase some landlords might not want to sign up for a 3 year tenancy, so this could be another catalyst for selling. In 3 years time a lot can happen with interest rates, etc... even if the rent follows the "market" rent that won't compensate for houses losing value due to rising interest rate. -
Today jobs and real economy are continously leaving the western world. Tens of thousands of bank backoffice, manufacturing etc. positions have already been transferred to eastern europe since they've joined the EU and more and more positions are transferred every day. Free trade and free movement is good for companies and the poorer countries, but very bad for the people in the richer countries as their jobs will be transferred to poorer countries or someone else comes from a poorer country and undercuts them (and on top of this we also give some extra money to them...) They try to tell us that as a developed country our role is not in the real economy anymore as we are on the next, "higher" step and we are supposed to live from the growing service sector. The truth is that the only reason why we have this big - especially financial - services sector is that the government basically guarantees that they will do whatever needed for the financial sector and big business. This is what they call the "special regulatory framework". This is basically corruption and guarantees for business built into the system. You can move your jobs to poorer countries, you can pay 0.1% tax, you can exploit our people on their basic needs with interest only mortgages etc. The other factor is very closely related to this. The reason why investors are piling into UK assets is that the government is committed in a similar way to keep up asset prices. In 2008 GBP/EUR dropped from 1.45 to almost 1.00 as investments have been unrolled. Since 2014 - together with HPI and other changes which help investment environment - it went from 1.15 to 1.45 as investors piled into UK assets again with renewed government guarantees, HPI support, QE, FLS, Help to Buy, you name it we had it. Now if the gov suddenly changes its stance and creates an environment where this guarantee is void, the GBP will worth less than the euro within minutes. Playing with financial sector and "investors" is like playing with fire, they pile into your economy, your assets, pump up your numbers, you get addicted to these numbers and you think they will stay here forever, so you start not to care about REAL economy and by the time you realise it's not good for your people and problems start to come, its too late. They can move investments with a click of the mouse and can reset your big numbers overnight. This is the situation we are in at the moment, that's why gov doesn't do anything. The truth is that it was a VERY bad idea to have free trade and free movement with poorer countries and let the real economy leaving the country. Free movement and free trade is not giving anything to the average people in the richer countries. Also we are not on the "next step" with the financial sector - we are rather heading a dead end. Financial sector is a nice modern world for exploitation and as the world is slowly going towards REAL equality (not this crap currently promoted) there is going to be less and less place for financial services. The best thing that could happen with Britain is a hard brexit whatever it means, losing passporting and then finding a new way of existing based on technology, research, and REAL economy and REAL equality, not this cancer of the financial services taking 16 trillion $ taxpayer money since 2008.
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Living Standards 'the worst since the last war'
jo_gian replied to Orsino's topic in House prices and the economy
Good point, in a country where even the the prime minister has 800K mortgage it is quite hard to decide who is rich. Anyway we must stop entangling people in debt. Debt should be a commercial only thing to help creating jobs, new enterprises etc... This might benefit society if done properly and btw this was the original purpose of debt. As debt is totally unregulated we can abuse it and anything that can be abused for more money will be abused. There is much more and much safer profit in giving debt against people's basic needs, and inflate the prices so eventually everyone will need "help" from banks, otherwise it wont be possible to exist. This is a very convenient position to be in, banks now don't have to do anything, poeple must come to them and hand over big part of their wages. Banks have no product, they are not even making iphones, they are just black holes taking all the money, no use to anyone else apart from themselves. And as they have a lot of free money from people, they can have a fancy london office, they can pay our best to work for them. All our children who were dreaming about working in space exploration, biology, science and helping society are there with their phds and working on algorithms to make sure the banks can extract even more money from others. Seriously wtf are we doing??? -
Living Standards 'the worst since the last war'
jo_gian replied to Orsino's topic in House prices and the economy
Similar things happened 80 years ago, in 1929 a big mess up by banks, then impotent governments left people suffering and disillusioned. This resulted in people voting for alternative solutions in some countries with the well known consequences. Exactly the same thing is happening right now, a big mess up in 2008, then governments left people suffering and disillusioned. This resulted in people voting for alternative solutions, brexit, trump and Europe is the next. It is not going to end up well this time either... Banks and people in power never did and never will voluntarily stop exploiting people, they will rather drive us into chaos than giving up on profit. And once winds change they will just run and leave their mess behind - like cameron just did. My last hope was May and her empty promises, but now after this autumn budget it became clear they won't do anything apart from helping business. Due to the lack of real changes UK and Europe will have more and more internal tensions due to inequality and immigration and the whole thing will just blow up and then who knows what happens. For example I am sure Putin will use the opportunity to gain some more territory. If things gets serious it's still Russia vs US due to the sheer number of nuclear warheads and US won't risk a nuclear war, not even for whole eastern europe. EU and UK urgently need to stop exploiting their own and make REAL changes -> make the rich poorer and make the poor richer. There is no other way around, talking is not enough anymore, we need urgent REAL actions.