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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by guest_northshore

  1. Zero in my local authority too. From 2016 to 2020. Edit: zero total with respect to any obligation under the 2015 (amended) Act. But thousands of new and planned builds by Barrat, Persimmon, Bovis, Taylor Wimpey, Kier.
  2. Yep. All else equal means higher land and housing prices resulting from lower planning risk, and lower quality buildings. Will make zero difference to total future supply. Just more money for land owners and volume developers (land price speculators).
  3. The cut will quickly be capitalised into asking and then selling prices if banks keep lending and people keep borrowing (if a buyer could afford X price + Y stamp duty then sellers know they can still afford X+Y, and due to potential to leverage a larger available cash deposit prices may rise more than the stamp duty cut). But the move was telegraphed by the media so may already be too late to 'take advantage' of it. Also now potentially competing with BTLers paying lower stamp duty than previously. But no idea what how this will interact with opposing forces like job losses, recession, scheme ending (if it ends) in April.
  4. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/stamp-duty-land-tax-temporary-reduced-rates#higher-rates-for-additional-properties
  5. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-community-infrastructure-levy-guidance or Google "Government tells councils to allow developers to defer affordable housing obligations" for Inside Housing article: "Councils have been told to allow developers to delay affordable housing and infrastructure payments in a bid to support housebuilding during the coronavirus crisis"
  6. "The ONS and the joint producers have taken the decision to temporarily suspend the UK House Price Index (HPI) publication from the April 2020 index (due to be released 17 June 2020) until further notice. The impact of COVID-19 is expected to greatly reduce the amount of housing transactions that took place in April 2020, making it very difficult to produce a measure of UK house prices that would be representative of any true transaction activity within the housing market. We will continue to closely monitor the flow of transaction data with the view to reinstating the UK HPI as early as is practicable. Further details will be available in the March 2020 UK HPI, due to be released 20 May 2020." https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/coronavirusandtheeffectsonukprices/2020-05-06
  7. Well I read somewhere that the Conservative Party exists to marry the unreconcilable notions of democracy and landlordism. So yeah why not.
  8. Indeed. Most commercial rental values are now zero. Even without Government lockdown intervention many would still relect near zero demand thus near zero value, as with some airlines etc.
  9. Urgh https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/05/02/landlords-talks-furlough-shops-restaurants-rents-go-unpaid/
  10. Bush did it in 2008 (cheques and rebates)
  11. Looks like monetary authorities telling fiscal authorities it's over to you now. Whether Goverments and politicking generally heed the message is another matter.
  12. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-15/fed-cuts-main-rate-to-near-zero-to-boost-assets-by-700-billion Edit: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2020/march/coordinated-central-bank-action-to-enhance-the-provision-of-global-us-dollar-liquidity https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2020/march/statement-from-the-governor-of-the-boe-mark-carney-and-incoming-governor-andrew-bailey
  13. BoE press conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_O0hztMfuc
  14. Here comes the next 'boom': https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10582893/boris-johnson-home-building-plans/ Planning liberalisation (a good thing) without a corresponding taxation/public housing overhaul (a bad thing) - greater opportunity for urban agglomeration and density - higher land values - more power and windfall gains for landowners. https://medium.com/fresheconomicthinking/delay-or-develop-what-really-determines-the-rate-of-new-housing-supply-e1dbdb3dfeee
  15. Mostly due to changed accounting treatment of student loans, funded public sector pension schemes, depreciation, LISAs, environmental levies and correction to corporation tax receipts.
  16. Tragic 'House prices and the economy' thread. Sums up the progression of this forum
  17. Same. I voted for Brexit. Increasingly regret it given the way society is fracturing. Have voted not-Conservative
  18. If most people are independently repulsed by his anti-Semitism then given the focus on indirect not direct evidence and using the same logic they must be equally or more repulsed by Johnson's anti-Semitism and wider racism. But that doesn't seem to be the case. Therefore I don't buy that narrative, whether nor not Labour support is evaporating for whatever reason.
  19. Probably because that's probably true. And a lot of people aren't boomers or wealthy or gullible idiots
  20. Reasoned political difference and/or an absolutist Brexit position is one thing. But the projections from income or housing wealth or batsh1t bias on a forum once centred on basic human and social rights have mostly killed it, esp given the trends since 2007. Our Government bothers me more than leave/not. Change - I'm hopeful but not optimistic.
  21. Still in the new manifesto: https://www.libdems.org.uk/plan (our plan to build a fair society - access to affordable housing) "Help young people into the rental market by establishing a new Help to Rent scheme to provide government-backed tenancy deposit loans for all first-time renters under 30" (some councils already offer this)
  22. The manifesto doesn't sway me either way, as we know what the parties stand for by now. The establishment and many aligned interests this forum used to focus its ire against clearly detest and fear Corbyn, so he has my vote. But for the same reason I think it will be a Conservative landslide; more of the same and worse. Good luck to those struggling or young or even just average.
  23. The more valuable your work is to society, the less you’ll be paid for it With a banking and finance work history I'll readily admit to a negative social value and a fundamentally bullsh1t contribution. A lot of nonsense really, and much comes down to economic rent extraction (those closest and best connected to the money/land/resources get most surplus).
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