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seismic mark

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About seismic mark

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    HPC Newbie
  1. Good people of Housepricecrash, I am building a spreadsheet to show how it is lending that primarily drives houseprices, not supply/demand of houses, nor sentiment. Something that may be obvious to many of us, but nevertheless is worth demonstrating I think. Attached is the chart from my preliminary effort. It shows the "pushed" price, for which a typical new market entrant could in theory find funds available. The differential between this and the actual price produces a "pressure" up or down on the market. Where I am a bit sketchy is the typical mortgage products available over previous cycles. Can anyone help with either their recollections, or hard data? Attached are the preliminary numbers I have used, with the tricky ones in pink. "qualifying criteria" - are the banks accepting single income, single +1/4 second, or household income? "LTV available" and "term available" are obvious with 999 meaning Interest Only are common. "affordability" is proportion of paycheck most are prepared to dedicate to mortgage repayments, and could be said to put a lid on the mortgage products accepted. "savings" I have put in to limit deposits available, as it should prove important going forward as all are MEWed up and recession bites. If any are interested I'll post the full spreadsheet later, once we've seen how well the model helps interpret the data. thanks in advance Mark
  2. I've seen these on billboards along the picadilly line. If the occupancy was full for 300 nights at £100 then 50% does equal 15% yield on 100k. i just thought why are they doing it? seems like an expensive way of getting finance. any ideas?
  3. Or you could work offshore. As for the morality of not paying tax ... well that pales into insignificance compared to the evil of finding ever more oil to guzzle Mark ps. I think the 6 months outside UK waters, 1 foreign portcall a year is for british seamen/workers offshore, exemption on residency only is different but I don't know the details
  4. Hi Social Houser, I'm currently looking at http://www.anglofareast.com/ for silver all looking good so far Mark
  5. Hi Bidin'matime I hate to use a bulls argument, but we are talking relaxed lending criteria and BTL now. Part of the smoke and mirrors of low interest rates are pitiful annuity rates for pensions. Money is being introduced to the system. This is indeed one definition of inflation. BTL investors, foreign investors (sold mine to an Irsh one), city bonuses ... My own feelings lie towards your own. I am now "out" of the "UK market" (moving to Sicily, waiting to re-enter down the line). I hope that those who wish to live in their property win out. However I fear it is not cut-and-dried, and there are powerful forces at work. Though the hidden inflation scenario seems far-fetched, I don't think it can be dismissed out of hand. Mark
  6. Interest rates are what would crash the housing market. Unfortunately the CPI cover-up is largely unreported in the mainstream media and so the markets seem content that a basis point this way and that represents the BOE controlling inflation. So we have negative real interests rates. A nice analogy is that of a car hurtling downhill, while the driver tries to slow down by easing the pressure on the throttle. Joe public is fooled(forced?) into accepting wage increases lower than real inflation. The end result, if BOE/FED are allowed to get away with this (they hope), is monetization of the national debts, renewed competiveness, and no apparent housing crash. Who should we bet with? bull or bear? Mark
  7. Awaiting Fair Prices, there is a third way. An account holding allocated gold for you in bailment. This gold is legally yours, it is not at risk if the company goes under (the liquidators return it to you), and the gold retains its status as good delivery when you come to sell. Charges and insurance are typically very small. I would say each method depends upon your aims. Unallocated has no long term gaurantees Allocated might be vulnerable to then whims of government Physical is inconvenient Below is an allocated account link. The site has lots of background info Mark Bullion Vault
  8. In case everyone feels too inadequate, I guess these averages are means. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/ashe1105.pdf last year the median full time salary was £22400 gross. So unless salaries have gone up 25% ... Also suggests for poor Mr/Mrs 50th percentile house prices look even higher than the article would suggest. Mark
  9. " Official figures show nearly 30 per cent of all mortgages taken out in June by home-owners are interest-only mortgages. In June 2004, the figure was just 18 per cent, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) " I never realised IO mortgages were picking up to this extent! The banks' appropriation of our housing stock gathers pace. btw: Will a HPC reverse that trend? Mark
  10. http://www.guardian.co.uk/g2/story/0,,1667749,00.html this link to a previous article of his shows just what a wonderful command of logic the man has
  11. Hi Lozwills, if you're STR didn't you sell something? you could have got 4.5% interest on that money, doesn't that go someway to offsetting the 31 grand? don't lose the faith! mark
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