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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Ignorantbliss

  1. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/09/inheritance-work-middle-class-home-ownership-cost-of-housing-wages Forget stamp duty, inheritance money is the key to the affordability of a new home... Inheritance is becoming an increasingly important determinant of life chances. Over time, access to middle-class status will become more and more closely bound up with what you stand to inherit, not what job you do.
  2. No surprise, the city centre as a whole is not a attractive visit these days, not helped by the clowncils bewildering new traffic system and extortionate car park charges. It's actually easier and more enjoyable to have a day trip to Inverness or Dundee to do a days department store shop if that is your thing.
  3. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-97156397.html Here's one for you from NE Scotland to illustrate how prices are dropping round here. Initially wen on the market at the start of 2019 for £550k. With no takers they changed to a local solicitor/estate agent last autumn and dropped the price to £520k. Again no takers, so they've now changed over to Purplebricks and dropped the price down to £485k. Still too much, can get whole manor houses in Aberdeenshire for less - https://search.savills.com/property-detail/gbabrsabs190096.
  4. Little snippet on Aberdeen in the Telegraph... https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/areas-missed-post-lockdown-summer-house-price-boom/ Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire both recorded price drops of 0.4pc in August. This places the eastern Scottish city area in third last place, but Aberdeen’s fortunes could be turning. Values were falling before the pandemic – in February, prices were 2.2pc down year-on-year, according to Zoopla. The economy in Aberdeen and the surrounding area is heavily dependent on North Sea oil and gas. Faisal Choudhry, of Savills estate agents, said: “The oil price is the main measure of how the local economy is doing.” When the price crashed in 2014, Aberdeen’s employment market took a hit, and so did its house prices. But the last downturn meant that the property market was more resilient to the next oil price crash, which happened over lockdown, said Mr Choudhry. Now, value for money and rising demand for homes in Aberdeen’s West End and more rural surrounds, in areas such as Peterculter, Stonehaven and along the River Dee to Balmoral, meant that activity has surged. “Since the Scottish market reopened at the end of June, Aberdeen has led the market in Scotland,” said Mr Choudhry. In July, August and September, agreed sales in the city were 91pc above the level recorded in the same period in 2019, according to TwentyCi, a data company. But a rise in activity does not mean rising prices. The supply of homes for sale has more than doubled since the 2015 level, said Mr Choudhry. The oversupply is concentrated in the sub-£200,000 market and has been driven by an influx of buy-to-let properties as landlords try to exit the sector to escape falling rental values, said Mr Choudhry.
  5. Interesting overview of the office situation in Aberdeen, 2.6million sq ft for the taking! https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/office-space-take-up-rises-almost-150-from-previous-quarter-says-firm/ Office take-up in Aberdeen has risen almost 150% from the previous quarter, a real estate advisor firm said. CBRE has released its latest figures on the office market in the city for the third quarter of the year. Although the climate “continues to be challenging”, the property firm said it had seen a significant increase in activity in the third quarter of the year. Office take-up in Aberdeen totalled 81,723 sq ft, a drop of 33% from the same period in 2019 but was up almost 150% from the previous quarter. This brings the total take-up for the year to 268,871 sq ft, which is still marginally up on the same period in 2019. The area of Dyce secured four of the largest transactions in the quarter with TAC Healthcare purchasing Wood’s former 19,233 sq ft office on Wellheads Crescent, energy services company Expro acquiring the 16,212 sq ft Kirkhill House and drilling waste specialist TWMA and subsea contractor Ocean Installer taking 8,030 and 7,233 sq ft respectively at Aberdeen International Business Park. The largest in town letting was artificial intelligence company Arria taking 9,863 sq ft at Carden Church in the west end of the city. Supply in the city currently sits at 2,678,000 sq ft, a 4.65% rise from the same period in 2019. Out of this supply figure, only 545,200 sq of it constitutes as modern office space; just over 20% of the office space currently available in the Granite City. Derren McRae, managing director of CBRE’s Aberdeen office, said: “As we are seeing across various markets, the climate continues to be challenging. However, we have seen a significant increase in activity in the third quarter of the year with some key transactions taking place. “Commercial terms for the majority of the Q3 transactions were agreed prior to Covid-19 so it is a positive reflection of the market that these deals did indeed follow through to completion, albeit in some cases occupiers looked to either slightly reduce their office footprint or negotiate additional flexibility on lease term. “Dyce has witnessed a transformation in recent years and the four office acquisitions demonstrate occupiers’ ever-improving perception of the area. “It was also pleasing to see Carden Church being acquired by Arria which will relocate from the north of the city to one of the highest-profile office buildings in the West End.”
  6. What I am seeing in the Oil and Gas sector in NE Scotland is that companies are going to start using WAH as a benefit of employment but at a cost to the employee - with the level of unemployment there is in the sector just now, any changes are going to be easy to implement. Thus, those who elect to work at home for the majority of the time will lose most, if not all of their car allowance for example. Win win for the companies really as a lot of the engineering etc work can be done off site easily, so expect more offices to close in the Aberdeen area and the cost savings that creates. The threat of offshoring is real as well. For the employee though, if they are granted the ability to WAH on a permanent basis, expect many to move out of the Aberdeenshire area to much cheaper locations elsewhere (e.g. Moray, Dundee etc) which are within reasonable travelling distance of the main office in Aberdeen for any occasional meetings.
  7. https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/56526908 Good grief, what will they do next to try and get people interested in buying a house.... We asked our client what they have enjoyed most about the years spent here and this is their response; “…We have access through the field in front of our house to a rocky beach cove below Whistleberry Castle. We created a small firepit here where we take the kids for 'sausage sizzels' etc. Others can access it but mostly it's just us. The neighbours are lovely and there is a real sense of community in wb. The kids have loved growing up here and during lock-down, both outside and inside, the space has been a godsend. I've worked from home for over 8 years and love the fact that I can just head out the door with the dogs for a bit of fresh air and time out. Connectivity is good with 4G (4G Router through phone mast) and there is plenty of space in the house to mix up working spaces. We got married at Old Kinneff Church and held our reception at the house and in the garden. Regular get-togethers with the neighbours are great - what I do know is that anyone moving here will be made to feel very welcome and an important legacy for us is to find a family that will enjoy the house and location as much as we've done…” On related point, anecdotally the buying madness has infected Aberdeenshire in the last few weeks as quite a few properties on the wishlist have suddenly gone "under offer". Now to wait to see what prices they went for.
  8. Prices still amazingly high for puppies. This though is a stunning asking price, someone is having a laugh (or mistakenly added a extra zero)...
  9. I have to admire the confidence builders have that there is a unlimited market for new rabbit hutch flats in the city centre - https://scottishhousingnews.com/article/flats-plan-approved-at-aberdeen-city-centre-building In the above example, even adding a extra storey to the top of the building. Classic though has to be the demolition of Greyfriars House on Gallowgate, final full approval being given today.... Demolition of Greyfriars House, which will be carried out by Nottingham-based firm Edge, will cost around £350,000. The warrant for the demolition is valid for three years and expires in September 2023. Under the plans for the site, blocks of between five and seven storeys will be built once the existing building is demolished. A car park with space for 33 vehicles will also be constructed, and access points and road junctions will be altered. https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/done-demolition-of-aberdeen-office-building-given-green-light/ Wonder how they will dish out 33 car park spaces between the 140 flats they are squeezing into that spot....
  10. What really surprises me is that the tax authorities do not investigate this part of the economy more. At current prices, a unscrupulous breeder (which are in the majority) could make £10k+ profit per litter. Bet none of that gets declared. Indeed, nice little earner for those on benefits.... Shameful that dogs are now treated like commodities. As others have said, there is going to be a catastrophe next year in animal rescue as all these "fashion accessories" get dumped out of necessity and/or for the latest fad.
  11. Pandemic driving 'exceptional interest' in Scots homes Who needs first time buyers in certain areas of Scotland when there are so many wanting to move there from elsewhere! Not good for the locals though... Islanders fear 'economic clearance' over house prices Anecdotally its boom time in places like Inverness. Know of one house that sold last week after just 48 hours on the market, they got 15% over the home report value of £340k.
  12. First of the tax raids... https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2020/09/government-confirms-plans-to-raise-age-for-accessing-private-pen/ Surprised there has not been more comment on this. A big change, quietly announced - a theme they will use for tax rises in the future???
  13. Aberdeen making a name for itself in the Daily Mail as well, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8688799/UK-housing-market-bounces-biggest-monthly-rise-16-years.html
  14. Well, it makes a change from the likes of Stewart Milne flattening everything and erecting rabbit hutches instead! https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/aberdeen-community-church-buys-iconic-aecc-tower-as-part-of-property-deal/
  15. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-84021004.html Thought it was a factory unit going by the first photo! What an extraordinary house for Maud of all places. Not surprised there is a reduction of £115k off the home report value its a pretty remote location.
  16. Council begging people to return to work/spend in the city centre. Unfortunately for them Covid has proven that for many of the roles in O&G you don't actually need to be physically in the office. For many, working at home has been a positive revelation and for the employer there are real cost benefits potentially through closing unnecessary offices. Thus, cannot see anything but a very slow recovery. What the council should be really worried about is that with remote working proving successful for a significant proportion of O&G support, do companies and their employees really need and want to be physically located in the remote NE corner of the country. Aberdeen reliance on oil sector could be ‘danger to whole city’ during recovery, think tank warns
  17. Surprised to get a email today from the local school (Aberdeenshire Council) telling us that the scheme now applies to school meals!
  18. Plans to convert Aberdeen office block into modern living space Sign of things to come, the ex Apache building next to BP. Had to laugh at the "help ease the national housing crisis" statement from the developer, Aberdeen is depopulating and housing supply is increasing daily. Going to be micro-homes though if they intend to squeeze 50 homes into that building.
  19. North-east property market is ‘buoyant’ say experts https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/north-east-property-market-is-buoyant-experts/
  20. ASPC: Aberdeen house prices rise marginally this year ASPC never miss the chance to spin the situation - “This may be a good time to buy".
  21. Do sellers not realise that you can see the price history... http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/51974138
  22. Barratt NHS 5% Deposit Scheme Whatever next. Anecdotally hearing that house sales in the Scottish Highlands have been very buoyant the last few weeks, a lot of this down to English buyers selling up down south and then buying the much cheaper houses there in cash. For that area at least the price crash seems to be on hold.
  23. BT to close base in New Telecom House in College Street This is one of the bigger office blocks in the city centre so more supply to add to the glut - though never realised that BT only used 10% of the building. Checking just now, with BT's departure that makes 7 floors empty. http://fgburnett.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/Aberdeen-New-Telecom-House.pdf Now to wait for one of the Aberdeen City clowncillors to suggest converting part of it to residential flats.
  24. Aberdeen’s TECA sees £75m wiped off its value Aberdeen City Council really must be running towards insolvency with investment decisions like this - a labour/conservative coalition is not a marriage made in heaven. On different tack, was speaking to a surveyor this week and they report they have never been busier. Plenty new houses coming on ASPC, rightmove etc to support that. Prices not dropping though going by my ASPC watchlist.
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