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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by FirstTimeBonkers

  1. All the better, then, to make ones nest in the genteel delights af the nice areas of Hackney, then, such as the delightfully buzzing and cosmopolitan Lower Clapton road, the salubrious Dalston (the new Fulham, you know) or the tranquil and relaxing Homerton high street (Harvey Nicks rumoured to be opening a branch there real soon now).
  2. It's the ripple-down effect that's worrying. For example, "Chief Executives" and those occupying the large array of non-jobs in local authorities and other publc sector agencies seem to think that they are in the same category as the above and have to be paid commensurately. With money that, unlike FTSE companies, we can't legally avoid paying.
  3. To say nothing of the fact that if you make it to old age having slaved away to pay off your mortgage they'll then sell your house from under you to pay the nursing home bills. Better to rent.
  4. Who'd want the man as a neighbour? If you had one noisy party maybe he'd launch a "regime change" of your property.
  5. If the views of my friends and acquantainces are anything to go by, perceptions in the "outside world" have definitely shifted in favour of the bears on this board. And no, I haven't suggested that they read this website, and they're mostly homeowners.
  6. It depends on what priority society is prepared to place on respecting pensioners versus having new members. If there is a housing shortage, then is it fair for the some members of the older generation to cling onto their memories in a house bigger than they really need - and which with rising fuel prices is costly for them to heat - whereas working couples who want to drop sprogs are expected to cram them all into a 1-bed "executive" new build at 10x salary?
  7. Islington (which now includes substantial chunks of Dalston and Haggerston according to the local EAs) looks and feels more and more like Croydon these days. Shame, as 5 years ago it was actually quite pleasant. I wouldn't live there now.
  8. To my way of thinking an EA or mortgage broker claiming to have any idea of where rates are going is like a fishmonger speculating on the price of the diesel that powers the trawlers.
  9. As someone who was brought up to be an earner and a saver, I do tend to your point of view. The snag is though that bankruptcy is becoming destigmatized and easy to access, and ex-bankrupts will inevitably become more "mainstream" consumers and an increasingly lucrative market for lenders, who will give tighter spreads above "prime" lending because the ex-bankrupt group as a whole will actually be a better risk as it draws in an increasing number of "ordinary" people. I think the most likely scenario is lenders becoming much more restrictive in the size of the loan they offer to all consumers, ex-bankrupt or not, since this reduces the effect of the consumer just deciding to go bankrupt. When you put this together with the steadily increasing wholesale cost of money we're now seeing, there has to be only one possible effect on house prices.
  10. I don't buy the 35 and 40 year repayment mortgage argument. The drop in the monthly repayments gets pretty marginal as you add another year to the term beyond 25 years, and will be marginalised further by a rate hike. As for "passing it to the kids", if I can't even afford my own little pile of baked earth, how can I afford kids?
  11. The other big problem is that modern intensive agriculture (by far the preferred way of producing biofuels because of its intense productivity) is totally dependant on manufactured fertilisers, the primary feedstock for which is..... natural gas. If your aim is to power a vehicle then you might as well burn the fossil fuel in the vehicle in the first place rather than go to all the energy-intensive trouble of making it into a fertilser and spraying it on a field to make biofuel. The other side of the same coin is that if these fertilsers become more difficult to produce and food more scarce, the last thing you are going to want to do with your yummies is burn them in your car.
  12. "Perhaps home "ownership" is overrated in a society where the government is the ultimate landlord and everyone else is a renter to one degree or another." Look no further than the leaseholder documents for a flat in a largeish building whose freehold belongs to a property management company if you want proof of this. When I stumbled across the one that belongs to the flat I currently rent, I was fairly shocked in that most of the T&Cs that my landlord has to abide by are identical to the ones that I have to abide by in the AST. It's abundantly clear that the freeholder views him as tenant scum in exactly the same say as he views me as tenant scum, and yet he is the "owner", well, with a mortgage from a bank. I can up and leave very easily whenever I like, for him it's much less easy. It's fairly clear to me that basically all the "owner" "gains" over me is 1) the exposure to asset appreciation/depreciation of the lease, which is of questionable utility in the present static/falling market 2) the ability to have the final say over how long he lives there, which advantage is grossly reduced by the difficulty of finding good tenants and wanting them to stay as long as possible to reduce void periods. and 3) the ability to scratch the itch that the VI home improvement shows create Which leads me nicely up to my point: perhaps the "solution" to the housing market problem is to tilt the AST a little more in the tenants' favour. This removes advantage-of-buying 2) and 3) and makes BTL much less attractive, particularly for unreasonable landlords. What kind of things am I thinking of? All the things that the VIs constantly plug to make us a nation obsessed with our homes. For example, the right to redecorate as we wish provided that we don't reduce the value of the property. The right to have pets provided that their mess is removed at the end of the tenancy. The right to stay as long as we wish with rents rising at inflation-only. All the kinds of things that any reasonable landlord would allow could be legally enshrined within the AST. As for those landlords who want to "buy" a BTL property and sit in their mansions getting fat demanding that the tenant keep their asset as a museum piece whilst at the same time labouring to pay off their mortgage, well, I think we'd all be better off if they were driven out of business. A home is for living in. Maybe I've just been lucky in that almost all of my AST landlords have been excellent and have never refused a reasonable request to improve a property. I think they see rent hikes for the next tenant, but the effect on me is the same.
  13. I'm a bit more worried about the inevitable asteroid hitting the earth myself; do far more damage that will.
  14. I was kind of hoping they'd go for Hampstead Heath to temper the London "mini-boom". A commute from the Kent or Sussex coasts is not really my bag.
  15. Personally I'd be delighted to have one in a field near me; much more so than the alternative carbon and soot spewing monster or 1000 windmills. They keep house prices down too.
  16. I would suggest that in your reply you might quote the following non-answer "Marsha Wright, a financial property expert, was chosen to take part in the programme because of her wealth of knowledge on the subject. Marsha and her team worked out the figures featured in the programme." and ask the following specific questions: 1) what is a "financial property expert"? An expert in 2nd-hand bank buildings? What are the qualifications and experience which lead you to suggest she has a wealth of knowledge? 2) in what way does sycophantising a self-appointed expert answer the original request which was for a full explanation of how the figures were arrived at?
  17. That should put another £100k on the price then since the two 'boarders' can be charged rent.
  18. There is nothing particularly inaccurate or unfair about this view, but the problem is that the balance between maximising career prospects and wanting not to live in a hovel changes as the days of your life go by. Most people find this balance by commuting from the surrounding counties. London does not have the monopoly on highly-paid jobs with good prospects. As another thread has shown, for example, it seems that one way forward is to become a local government executive.
  19. If I were he I'd move out of London - changing my place of work and taking a pay cut if necessary.
  20. The way to understand business-speak is to suppose the converse. ..."we need non-charismatic people with no leadership abilities who can discourage customer focus in a culture which pays no heed to performance"
  21. Conflating peak oil and peak uranium is a mistake usually made by the anti-nuke brigade. Once the black stuff is burnt, it's gone. Most of the globe has been seismically picked over for it, and it's believed that there's no other Ghawar for the simple reason that Ghawar is big. Comparatively, only the very low-hanging fruit of uranium resources have been tapped in places like Oz where you literally only need to scratch the surface to find it. The two resources are in entirely different stages of their exploration and extraction cycles. You also ignore the effect of reprocessing and fast breeders, both of which can extend current resources by a factor of up to 10. This is all known technology; it hasn't been thoroughly exploited yet because there's so much uranium out there.
  22. Exactly. So the way to solve this problem is by using normal business criteria - make it extremely unprofitable for the lender when the customer is unable to pay. When their bottom line is at stake, they will soon start exercising a little more caution as they operate the "free money" machine.
  23. Surely a company with the name of Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation would have to be British.
  24. Leading some commentators on to the conclusion that it's the current way of life that has to change, not the technology that powers it. That seems to work very well as a thought experiment until one realises that the extraordinary energy density of oil has made our kind of high density population with super-high-yield farming possible. These factory-farmed foods are simply the result of stuffing natural gas and oil into the soil via nitrate-based fertilisers. "Bio"-fuels anyone?
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