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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by geometric

  1. I think you will have appreciated by now that there are some very strong feelings about BTL on HPC, but ignoring that for a minute, there is a lucrative lettings market for short term (days or weeks) lets of good flats in London. Does that exist in Manchester ? Obviously that means many more turn arounds for you and was not your original business plan but I thought I'd point this out. I'm not a landlord of any sort so this is a comment from a property outsider.
  2. The programme I'd like to see is the one where we start from the same point of view where most FTB'rs are facing a crippling debt for the pleasure of buying into the housing market. But then instead of suggesting that we all start to turn spare rooms into boarding kennels for rabid dogs to cover the mortgage, investigate the sensible solution, that no one seems willing to contemplate, of encouraging the market to deflate.
  3. We've been told repeatedly by VI's that the increases in income are a main support for HP inflation, but most people have been thinking that income has actually been falling and remarkably enough that turns out to be true. So that takes about 3.5% off the 'justified' HP inflation over the past 2 years, call that another 7% of unjustifiable inflation. Interesting.
  4. Very many people did avoid the dot com boom because of transparency. Although I have been daft enough to miss out on the housing boom I have been an equity investor for years and saw through the dot com thing with ease. I definitely am not any kind of expert but all of my contacts in equity investment were calling the dot com crash 18months in advance, it is the media that puts out the story that something suprising happened, but it just was not like that. I agree that the nethouseprices may be the most significant new factor in UK house prices.
  5. What about the unknown in all of this ? If the average pension plan is worth currently £35k then I'd expect to find that a small but significant proportion of the population have plans worth well in excess of this and probably enough to buy property given the borrowing rules. How many people do we need to ramp up the lower section of the market again, 10% of the population would do it I'd guess. Also there are a large number of people out there who have been using their full PEP/ISA allowances for over a decade now and some of that may find its way into the SIPP schemes; I know several peop
  6. I get the feeling that the engines have been quiet for some time now, we have just broken through the cloud base and there is no runway in sight. The captain says there is no cause to panic though as you can land these things on no engines, can't you ?
  7. Now there is an analysis that pulls no punches. Maybe this is an answer to the old question as to what will precipitate a drop in HP's in the UK: a crash in Ireland destroys sentiment. I wonder what the links are between the Ireland mortgage system and that in the UK ?
  8. Hmm, certainly seem to have struck a nerve here KOTC. The people I was referring to work in public service and a factory respectively; you are making assumptions here. I dont say that you brag of your position because I know what you do; I say this because of your posts. Being lectured on hardship by a landlord had me laughing out loud
  9. KOTC, yes I have a sense of humour but you guys brag about your brilliant positions the whole time, I find seeing posts by dogbox (dogs bollo**s), TTRTR, KOTC vulgar given the seriousness of the issues being discussed. As to your comment about my friends going to university, well they are paying back their debts and dont complain about it. This country really does need educated people so it is a shared risk; graduates take on a financial risk of getting higher education but also they dont pay the full cost of their education as the government supplies a significant proportion of the cost of
  10. What is it about this forum that attracts the former school bullies to flame everyone else ? What is it with the names of the 'bulls' like KOTC, dogbox etc that they need to pi*s people off with their acronyms ? I have 2 friends recently bought their first flat in a basic part of central Scotland. Both work hard, commute a long way to work. Last Friday they had a bill for a car repair (that they NEED to get to work) for £500. They were in tears because they simply cannot afford to pay it owing to the mortgage and student loans. So no car and one now has a 2 hour each way commute. I am older
  11. No, economists use the notion of fair value when assessing assets and estimate it on the underlying features of the asset. But dont you mean in the UK today that the fair value for a property is whatever the estate agents put it on the market for ?
  12. A lot of business activity depends on a good degree of economic stability, and the same is true of individuals. Apart from the financial risk the housing boom represents highly unstable conditions to many people in the UK, I mean how can you plan anything when the only thing that matters is buying houses in the next few weeks. So I propose that a group of housing experts drawn from the UK building societies and the bulls from this forum (KOTC etc) get together and are allowed to re-value all UK property so that it becomes stable. Presumably there is some level at which property is fair value,
  13. Well, regardless of the blind spot HPC has on this subject I reckon (I hate to say) that the SIPP rules will be a massive boost to the market and KOTC (may he end up on the streets for being a smug arrogant....****) is right about it. Loads of people have pension funds capable of purchasing at 50% gearing. Every commentator, even those who criticise the new property SIPP rules, reckon it is going to drive the market, and that has to be bad for (our) sentiment.
  14. In every dramatic market you get really iconic events and this may be one. Either the market has been parked up for the winter and it is about to go into overdrive or is going to wait to be towed away to the tip. I reckon it is all down to the BTL people; either they stand up tall and carry on investing and prove that we are in a new era or the real bear market starts.
  15. Yes, that is what I read as well. However an attic flat (2 bed) has just come on round the corner for offers over £145k which means it is expected to sell for around £165k. This is outside of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Does not sound affordable to me.
  16. I am in Scotland, and yes the boom has never gone away. What a f**king nightmare. Just never ends.
  17. Agree completely. Recently viewed a property, very poorly done up, and found out immediately that it had 50K slapped on the price in return for the work. It was for sale about 4 months after purchase. So I thought why should I give 50K to this geezer who knows nothing about house renovation / decoration. A very powerful sentiment I find. The original purchase price had been about £80k.
  18. Heard on the Radio this morning that online house sale price sites have taken 50 million hits so far. That is a big number and whichever way you look at it the act of finding out what price a place was paid for is already mainstream. What effect will this have ? I suggest that as all markets need full information to work well that this is a massively significant step in getting the UK housing market behave itself. This has been available for ages in Scotland. Could it be related to the lower boom levels in Scotland ? Anyway, I've been to see a few places while living here, over the past year,
  19. I am in central Scotland and stock is definitely moving here, it pains me to say..
  20. Presumably these papers reckon that their demographic is the same as that of the political parties, ie. 70%+ of owner occupiers. Those of us who are not owner occupiers are not represented by the political parties or the mainstream media. It sucks but it is a fact. Another comment: as you say the would be FTB's you know have turned savings mad over the past couple of years. I am sure that is right, and the outcome will be that people will be paying the high prices with the savings of years and there will be no real reduction in prices. The Labour party has solved the pensions crisis by getti
  21. Over the past 25 years Scotland has had far less of a boom/bust pattern than England and Wales, and I believe that it has had information on actual sale prices for all/most of that time. You always hear that a perfect market needs to be fully informed so might nethouseprices be the key factor to changing the England / Wales housing market ?
  22. I am a regular Times reader, and what struck me was the tone of article, saying what good news it was that the market is about to take off again. Regardless of how things turn out this is not the whole story and her views say nothing to me at all. Rubbish journalism. I am rarely disappointed by journalists but you'd think that there would be at least a few out there who were not in the pay of the house selling industry.
  23. I'm not a stockbroker, Van, I work with straight equity trades. I am not sufficiently sophisticated for the overall model of geared trading, but we all know they are there. The reason for this is that I understand equity trades and over the years I have found this to be usually not-time critical. I think that like many private traders I can be good at company analysis but have always found myself to be bad at market timing. Also I work with engineering / tech stocks only, as that is my area of expertise.
  24. Yeah, but get real, nobody commits to a single holding, and it is very easy in retrospect. Having said that it has been easy and low risk to show +30% over the past 6 months, not to mention good gains over the past 4 years. Trouble is you dont get the property gearing. Ah well.
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