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trompe le monde

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Everything posted by trompe le monde

  1. I think this effectively sums up everything that needs to be said with regard to current house prices. Excellent post. TLM
  2. yeah, I hear he's got for a share to buy mortgage with Elvis. TLM
  3. maybe a good time to short the S&P and DOW... TLM
  4. There was the same hearty cheering as before, and the mugs were emptied to the dregs. But as the animals outside gazed at the scene, it seemed to them that some strange thing was happening. What was it that had altered in the faces of the pigs? Clover’s old dim eyes flitted from one face to another. Some of them had five chins, some had four, some had three. But what was it that seemed to be melting and changing? Then, the applause having come to an end, the company took up their cards and continued the game that had been interrupted, and the animals crept silently away. But they had not gone twenty yards when they stopped short. An uproar of voices was coming from the farmhouse. They rushed back and looked through the window again. Yes, a violent quarrel was in progress. There were shoutings, bangings on the table, sharp suspicious glances, furious denials. The source of the trouble appeared to be that Napoleon and Mr. Pilkington had each played an ace of spades simultaneously. Twelve voices were shouting in anger, and they were all alike. No question, now, what had happened to the faces of the pigs. The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which. http://www.netcharles.com/orwell/books/animalfarm.htm TLM
  5. Good anecdote. I think I might have gently explained that if he couldn't afford his dream house now, how did he think he was going to afford it when it had also doubled in value alongside his flat, thus moving even further out of reach in cash terms. Nice shock tactics, though... TLM
  6. If the West didn't have Bin Laden they'd need to invent him. If he has shuffled off his mortal coil, another bogeyman will just be promoted from the shadows as the terrorist mastermind. Emmanuel Goldstein in Orwell's 1984 served a similar function. TLM
  7. Agreed. Late '80s I couldn't afford to buy and was renting, and watched the last crash in '89 without the benefit of an HPC support group but bought back in in '91 with substantial savings from that top...... and then watched my property steadily fall in value until '95/96 ish. Since then it's tripled in value and I've paid off the mortgage in 15 years. That's not to dis the renters here, I've been in that boat of being the weirdo watching everyone jumping on a bandwagon. Before general access to the internet, though, you didn't have a forum to bounce your 'heretical' views off, I just tried to apply some common sense. I genuinely thought I'd never ever be able to afford to buy prior to '89. When the tide turns again, as it did before, the bears here will be laughing. Me too, again, though I might leave it a bit longer this time before buying back in/upgrading. Everything is cyclical - in another 20-25 years we'll watch it happen all over again. TLM
  8. A combination of factors will contribute towards a tipping point in sentiment. When a critical mass of people begin to feel that they are not actually as wealthy as they think they are, this will be the trigger. Watch the IVA and bankrupty figures for individuals and companies - and unemployment figures. UK House prices are a symptom (albeit, a painful one, to many), not a cause of this - before they crash and burn, things have to get bad elsewhere in the economy. Credit squeezing by banks reacting to bad debt has to feed through, to the credit junkies, as does the recent quarter point hike in base rates. Another rise in October/November, together with mega rises in energy costs which won't feed through until everyone starts switching on the central heating over winter, is going to start hurting. The UK press is also slowly waking up to the fact that the CPI basket of goods is a con. Even some papers and TV programs are mentioning the 'C' word... I don't really believe in a VI press conspiracy, in general they'll just go with the flow and journalists will try not to upset their editors - when that flow trends down they'll all start overreacting and competing to come up with with the worst doom and gloom stories. In a few years when there's no makeover programs on TV, and you're shunned in polite company for mentioning house prices, that'll be the time to come back to the housing market. TLM
  9. My current theory is height of high heels at the moment. Lots of (mostly!) women teetering around at the moment. Come the recession it'll be back to the court shoe IMO... TLM
  10. agree with the sentiment, but I'd dig it out and shred it before someone nicks my identity.... TLM
  11. I think society is so hooked on debt that the odd 25 base point hike will not make a substantial difference in the short term - people just borrow more, while they can. What could swing it is energy inflation (i.e. gas bills) as we head into winter. Energy bills drop to a fraction of their usual rates this time of year - also everyone's in holiday mode during the silly season. Factor in another gas hike and look at peak usage with bills coming in around Jan/Feb, a depressing time of the year, on top of another IR rise in maybe November and I'd guess that home finances in stretched households will be looking tight. Add to that grain prices rising, with other food inflation on the cards and further credit tightening due to increased bad debt from the banks, and sentiment may well turn at this point. So yes, I guess I agree that there would need to be substantial rate hikes (in isolation) for a turn. However, I also think there's various other nasties waiting in the wings that could precipitate a change in sentiment. That's without even looking at terrorism, oil, etc. TLM
  12. Well, I've blocked everything, so apart from losing some screen real-estate down the right hand side, I'm not too fussed. Tend to spend more time over at GEI now anyway - some good discussions going on over there. TLM
  13. Hmm, a boss key. That will really enhance HPCs reputation as an informative site.... TLM
  14. I've got rid of all the google post ads via the RIP right click menu options without typing any paths by doing this. 1) Right click anywhere and select 'RIP advanced' then the second menu item 'Remove from all similar pages' 2) Right click in the 'Google ad' frame where the member text is, just under where it says 'Member no.' works. 3) Move cursor to 'RIP advanced' then the seventh item down 'Parent item only'. A red frame should flash briefly around the whole offending post. If so, then click the entry. Google post ad on this thread and all other threads should disappear. TLM
  15. If England get through the semis in the footie, I'm wondering if the July 6th MPC meeting will signal the rise in UK IRs. This will be just after the world cup second semi final (on Wed 5th July) and just before the third/fourth play offs, and final at the weekend. An excellent time to bury the news, if England get through to the final - there will be nothing else being reported. After it's over there'll be the post party hangover of paying for the MEWed TV with some freshly hiked rates. Failing that, definitely August IMHO... TLM
  16. hmm, a whole new world of alternative therapy awaits - cyclonic irrigation. TLM
  17. We've recently had headlines saying that up to a million people are on the verge of bankruptcy. IMHO this must mean that even a small hike is likely to push them over the edge. I'd imagine that behind them there's an even larger number of indebted in some financial distress where a .25% raise will cause pain on top of the extra outgoings on tax and utility bills. I think sentiment is the big issue. I've heard a few people with large debts say that they think that they'll see a cut in rates to 'help them out', but this seems to be based on nothing but hope. The smallest IR hike, with the promise of more to come may well shock the majority and signal the end of the party. So, a .25% may not do it technically, but the shift in mood might. A further similar hike later in the year, though, would definitely put the screws on it IMPO. TLM
  18. I'll second teddyboy on that. Nice work on the ticker chaps - keeps everyone happy... Cheers, TLM
  19. Would this be stagflation? "A condition of slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment - a time of stagnation - accompanied by a rise in prices, or inflation." the '70s revisited - including expensive oil. TLM
  20. The side ads suck big-time. I've now given all the ads the Mozilla ad-block treatment which helps, but that leaves a massive vertical void down the right of the screen - it looks bloody ridiculous, and is a big waste of screen real estate. I find the ticker very irritating too. My 2p worth. TLM
  21. Maybe this has been discussed before, but people in extremis can be totally irrational. I wonder if this site might be held up as a scapegoat, ie 'HPC wouldn't stop talking about it so they made it happen'. It's pretty difficult mustering up a lynch mob to attack a web-site, though - I hope..... TLM
  22. yup, I'm easily confused - tweaks to my local PC was what I meant. Ta, TLM
  23. there's a similar thread here with some good advice: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=30382 TLM
  24. Lived less than 10 minutes walk from Honor Oak Park station for 10 years, zone 3 and only 12 mins into London Bridge. Generally a nice area with good Victorian properties. Some nice parks, and close to Forest Hill with the Hornimans museum, also near Dulwich which is v expensive. Some good restaurants within walking distance too, mainly curry houses. I backed onto a council estate which I got fed up with in the end, but never had any real trouble, just wanted to trade up and move a bit further out. TLM
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