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House Price Crash Forum


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About Upabove

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  1. The franchise railway companies haven't taken a hit at all. They've been effectively nationalised under "emergency measures" government paying around £1bn a month to keep the empty trains running, operator profit capped at 2%. However the "open access operators" - Hull trains and grand central, could go bust any day now
  2. I think all the problems stem from so many people forgetting the true definition of inflation. Inflation is not rising prices, rising prices are merely a proxy. True inflation is declining purchasing power of the currency. In the latest decade we have seen incredible drops in the cost of energy through technical innovation, shale turning America from the largest net importer of energy in the world to a net exporter. Technologies such as wind and solar now meeting and exceeding price parity with conventional fuels. Incredible efficiency gains in motor transport with vehicles now pushing 70mpg unheard dof 10 years ago. However the public has seen almost zero benefit from these gigantic reductions in the cost of energy (and in the cost of all other products that use energy in their manufacture ie all of them). Such a reduction in cost of energy should have been a gigantic stimulus turbocharging the economy, but what happened? The answer is it has all been inflated away through declining purchasing power of the currency. However we haven't noticed because the price has stayed flat! Instead of turbocharging our economy via lower energy costs and boosted manufacturing all this economic gain has been siphoned off via low interest rates into asset prices and debt bailouts. Its criminal and yet no one in the mainstream seems to care... The problem is when the technical innovation driving down prices stops but the money printing continues... Central banks and governments will have a rude reintroduction to the ravages of rampant inflation and they'll now have to deal with it in the face of the greatest recession in modern history... Yay!
  3. I've done this in the past, maxed out 0% credit cards so I can fill my stocks and share isa to the limit for the year. One of the best financial decisions I've made. With the 0% interest, isa tax benefit and a very diversified and balanced collection of global tracker funds + long investment horizon means almost no downside. At the time I tried to push it further by taking advantage of some 1—2% unsecured personal loans. Over the phone they told me they wouldn't, but told me I should just say it was for a holiday... Thought it strange they advised me to commit fraud and also they'd rather me spaffing the money away than spend it on a low risk secured financial investment, but hey yo gotta keep those debt slaves slaves right! My main challenge though would be very difficult to get large scale debt at such a low interest rate, most leveraged trading accounts are very expensive. Only real way is to take the debt out on your mortgage... Yet more props for homeowners!
  4. Surely a wealth tax is deflationary, and it would seem mad for the government to confiscate capital from the public while at the same time directly pumping 'free money' into corporates via QE. Plus we all know they'll exclude people's primary homes from the calculation, screwing anyone prudent enough not to enter debt servitude to buy a house at overinflsted prices.
  5. Agreed we've had excellent and consistent results from Ukraine. India, never again! Don't underestimate the impact of timezones as well
  6. What do you think happens to savings? They are loaned out in investment, innovation and consumption... The question is whether it is better for central banks to inject capital directly into banks or directly into savers who then deposit in banks. Injecting into savers is more complex to manage (and big fraud issues) but has the benefit of not causing market distortions, savers will put their savings in the best banks - including innovative challengers that might not have access to traditional quantative easing.
  7. A tasty drop here https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/50530538 Now below 2013 last sale price. With further to fall I expect. Owner has made a staggering loss compared to holding any other asset since 2013
  8. Just as an anecdotal - I cycled past two London hospitals yesterday, and neither looked busy at all. Hardly any cars in car park, ambulances parked in front with crews having a cup of tea, and on my way back in the dark hardly any of the lights were on either. Obviously you can't tell how manic the ICU is from the outside. But what I suspect is the removal of non emergency care (and no one out drinking and fighting, getting in car crashes etc.) will free up a very large amount of staff to transfer to ICU. Also the training requirement and manpower to man something like nightingale were everyone has the same illness and same treatment plan will be much lower (don't need to do full ICU training just train covid procedure with full trained ICU staff monitoring it all who can be brought in if complications). Basically I think the bottleneck will be the hardware side - ventilators, beds with oxygen lines, ppe.
  9. You have no idea. I've been trying to get our company involved in some of the ppe and ventilator schemes going on, to scale up production via 3d printing and cnc supplier networks we use. But so far it is a disaster - no one in government or healthcare (UK and EU) so far has a clue about manufacturing. They don't know what is possible, they don't know what they need, and they don't know how to organise. For ventilators they may have taken the strategy of just focusing on the big boys (which would be absolutely fine and maybe smart) but they've missed a trick on ppe and companies and individual hospitals are left trying to figure it out themselves -Many companies want to be Seen to be helping more than actually helping, so we now have something like 30 new ventilator designs around the world, 60 new face shield designs etc. All because they want to see their design being used, rather than just choosing an existing design and getting started. We're also seeing the same with groups being set up to manage the volunteer projects, none of them are considering merging together which is infueiating -there is then a final class of people who rather than wanting to help, just enjoy feeling important/smarter by trying to shoot down everything - 'that's against regulations, that will never work' etc. And they are absolutely morons - if I need a ventilator I really don't care whether it uses plastic in it that is very mildly carcinogenic! And also easy enough to just 'red label' all this emergency equipment so easy to remove from supply chain after the crisis. Sweden even tried to sue a volunteer group for supplying face masks for goodness sake! https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/vill-skanka-tusen-skyddsmasker-stoppas (Swedish use Google translate) I really hate engineers and doctors sometimes (for loving regs, obviously lots of brilliant work being under terrible conditions at the moment)
  10. Serious risk that governments are trying to 'hold back the tide' rather than implement a 'managed retreat'. They have to accept that gdp is going to be massively down regardless of any economic measures and work to mitigate the resulting fallout rather than (foolishly) trying to prevent the economic damage from happening in the first place. I don't think many governments have yet grasped the economic implications yet. At the rate of fiscal and economic stimulus being pumped out you're going to be in sovereign default territory in 6 months if things don't improve, and then all bets are off!
  11. Can anyone find any articles actually outlining and analysing what's in the American stimulus package? All I can find is articles that mention it briefly in the context of the market rebound yesterday It's $2T for crying out loud, how is it not getting a mention on any news site!?!
  12. Yes they did https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_persecutions_during_the_Black_Death Who knows where the anger of the mob will focus. Every chance it can turn on government/state. In Africa during ebola crises they even burnt down hospitals. Don't assume people will be rational
  13. Do you want me to post twitter links to every poor person in the UK who has lost their lives in traffic lives this year? Every death is a tragedy, of course it is, but we still have to take reasoned response to relative risk. Just as traffic deaths lead to a range of proposed control measures, so will coronavirus. You can't just leap to 'shut down everything! For ever!' just like I expect you wouldn't support banning cars due to the (extremely significant) deaths they cause. I think most would agree 2 weeks lockdown would be a fine price to tackle the virus based on current lethality predictions. However when we start talking months, and maybe even over a year, will the majority still agree it is an acceptable tradeoff? And even more troubling, if we don't think 'going the distance' with all the measures required is sustainable, then are we just bearing all this economic pain (and the knock on quality of life and health implications that will lead to in the future) for zero benefit if we still get the exact same infection spike when our lockdown gets removed?
  14. It will be an even more electorally difficult policy for them if they don't prepare in advance for it sadly. I really don't envy those in government being made to make those decisions. But the only wrong decision is not making one
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