Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Muswell Hillbilly

Members
  • Posts

    535
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Muswell Hillbilly

  1. Unfortunately I’ve stopped buying the Sunday Herald since they squashed it all down into a single fat paper with all the articles and sections distributed almost randomly throughout (not to mention got rid of the full-week TV guide). Good to see Iain Macwhirter is still ploughing his lonely furrow though!
  2. I’ve not actually applied for anything, but out of curiosity I just went onto the Nationwide web site, and was a bit shocked to find them offering me 4½ times my single salary, with a deposit of £180,000 and no other regular outgoings.
  3. In an idle moment, I just looked at EH9 and EH10 on Rightmove, rather than ESPC. This brings up the ‘upmarket’ agents like Savills, Rettie and Strutt & Parker, who seem to consider the ESPC to be somehow beneath them. It is interesting to see how some of the real top-end stuff in Edinburgh is absolutely not selling at all, e.g.: Tipperlinn Road on market since May 2010, reduced from 2.75M to 2.25M 21 Greenhill Gardens on market since Oct 2009, reduced from 2M to 1.5M Midmar Drive, Morningside on market since Apr 2010, reduced from 1.3M to 995K Dick Place, on market since May 2010, reduced from 2.75M to 2.6M If 21 Greenhill Gardens wasn’t snapped up in the last bankers’ bonus season, I can’t see any reason why it, or any of the others, will get snapped up in the forthcoming bonus season either. If properties are not selling at the top end, and also at the bottom end (viz. ccc’s Gorgie one-bed-flat survey), surely the middle of the market must be affected at some point, too.
  4. Not to worry, Pole, you can face that sight for a mere £450,000 now! 6 BF Warrender Park Crescent At 176 m², that’s £2,556/m². Strange though it may seem, that is actually the going rate around Marchmont at the moment, as I think regular 2-bed flats of about 90 m² have been selling for £250,000 (£2,778/m²). Nevertheless, 9 February will mark its first six months on the market, unless Pole snaps it up before then! Meanwhile the Comedy Property of 2010 is still on sale at its original asking price of £130,000 for 21.6 m, or £6,015/m²: 5/22 Drummond Street
  5. My local observations in Marchmont/Bruntsfield suggest the same. At the end of 2008, two-bedroom flats had fallen to £250K, but in the end there were only about 50 properties of any kind in my search, and with negligible forced sales, very little came onto the market, and prices went up again in 2009. At the end of 2010, two-bedroom flats had once again fallen to £250K. The number of properties in my search peaked at about 195 earlier in 2010, but has now fallen to under 120, as many were withdrawn from the market before Christmas. Now, just as two years ago, the lack of forced sales is keeping supply low. People who don’t need to sell don’t bother putting their properties on the market if they perceive that prices are falling. I now believe that forced sales are the key, whether from rising unemployment, rising interest rates, the ending of New Labour schemes to prop up the market, or a combination of all three. Without any forced sales, the market just remains constipated, and prices are squeezed upwards due to the lack of new supply.
  6. ccc, they’re clamouring for you over at the Evening News web site! ‘I imagine that ccc will be along shortly. This must be like all his Christmas's have come at once.’
  7. Many thanks, Mr/Ms ESPC, for the quick response and the link to the historical data spreadsheet. I have made a note of the address for future reference. My particular area of interest is the Marchmont/Bruntsfield 2-bed figure, which at a whisker above 250K tallies with what I’m observing anecdotally. It’s roughly back to the figure of 2009 Q2, which represented the big Spring Bounce of 2009 after two quarters of falls.
  8. Thanks ccc, well spotted. ESPC, if you’re reading, please note that the link in the web page goes to 2010-Q3Table.pdf. I have tried substituting 2010-Q4Table.pdf, but to no avail. It would be good if you could install the correct link to the 2010 Q4 tables PDF file. Thanks.
  9. I must just rush quickly to Jeremy Hardy’s defence: he lives in Streatham, SW16, rather than in an all-white part of the countryside. I have no idea whether he lives in one of the posher parts of Streatham, though! I used to have respect for Billy Bragg but lost it when he remained so tribally loyal to the entity called the Labour Party even when, under Blair and Brown, it bore precious little resemblance to the original Labour Party. I wouldn’t call Billy Bragg a champagne socialist, more a champagne ‘Labour’ tribalist.
  10. My regular monthly notification from ourproperty.co.uk today highlighted the following two sales in my local area: • 70 Arden Street, EH9 1BN — £251,664 • 64 Thirlestane Road, EH9 1AR — £251,664 Neither of them was advertised on the open market. (There was another flat for sale at 70 Arden Street, but not the third-floor one which is listed in the details here.) Why would anybody pay just over the 250K stamp duty threshold? Both have the following details: Applicant/s: The Grouss Residential Investment Partnership Llp Granter/s: Edinburgh Assured Tenancies Limited Googling them both reveals rather anonymous companies. Would the properties just be investments in a pension fund or something similar? If that were the case, surely they would be let out. Neither of the top-floor properties at 70 Arden Street is registered on landlordregistrationscotland.gov.uk, and at 64 Thirlestane Road (the registration details don’t say which flat), only 64/5 is registered with landlordregistrationscotland.gov.uk, the owner being one Richard Loudon, not a company. Any ideas what’s going on, anybody?
  11. Muswell Hill and, to a slightly lesser extent, Crouch End were built by the Edwardians as grand garden suburbs for the wealthy. For some reason they fell into decline around the 1960s and were apparently okay but nothing special. The housing bubble of the 1980s brought about their revival, and they don’t seem to have looked back since. I suppose it is similar to the story of Notting Hill or Islington, areas which were grand when first built, then went through periods of decline before being re-gentrified. Remember that Notting Hill was slum-landlord territory in the 1950s, and so was one of the places where new immigrants from the West Indies fetched up. At least areas like Muswell Hill, Islington and Notting Hill have some beautiful houses and so were ready for re-gentrification. One thing that I don’t understand in London is how districts like East Dulwich, constisting of very ordinary narrow terraced houses built for the ‘lower middle classes’ (clerks and the like) in late Victorian times, have also become gentrified, with enormous prices to match. The housing stock there is really nothing special. I have also left Muswell Hill and now live 400 miles away. It was good for a time there, in the late 1990s/early 2000s, and I was lucky enough to be able to afford to buy a tiny flat there in the late ‘90s, but the latest housing bubble caused the demographic there to change. It had been very pleasant in a middle-class sort of way when I moved there, with lots of families, but then the top media and city people moved in, all out for themselves and not giving a shit for anyone else, and the remaining useful shops closed down to be replaced by more-money-than-sense boutiques etc., so I don’t miss the place. Sorry, a bit of a digression there – back to Totteridge now!
  12. Personally I also loathe the labelling of people by their profession. She was not a ‘25-year-old landscape architect’ but a 25-year-old woman/person/human being. Are we meant to feel more sympathy when somebody with a prestigious profession is murdered? There are always complaints when women working as prostitutes are murdered and they are labelled ‘prostitutes’ in the news, so evidently if a person’s job is not considered respectable many people would rather it not be mentioned in reports. Mind you, it is the Daily Wail we’re talking about here! Newpapers have always been guilty of inserting people’s ages when completely irrelevant, e.g. John Smith (45) or whatever. The Daily Wail simply inserts the market value of the home in which they live, too, e.g. John Smith (45, house worth £200,000).
  13. I think the ramper compared the Halifax average price now with the average price at the arbitrary point of April 2009, rather than one year ago!
  14. At least where auditing is concerned, ‘Beancounting’s Fat Four – PricewaterhouseCoopers, Deloitte, KPMG and Ernst & Young … hog 73 percent of UK fee income from the top 50 firms in the latest Accountancy Age league table, with the Even Fatter Three sharing 68 percent of audit fees.’ That looks more like a cartel than competition. The quote is taken from page 31 of the latest issue of Private Eye.
  15. I must admit I hadn’t even noticed that the ESPC were reporting year-on-year falls. I tend not to pay much attention to the monthly reports, but wait for the quarterly ones. The average price in Q4 2009 was £218,043. The November 2010 price is already below that, so unless a tiny number of sales in December skews the average price for the quarter in an upward direction, we should be looking at a respectable year-on-year fall in Q4 2010.
  16. The difference is that newspaper reporters and editors simply reproduce whatever is written in the press releases that they receive, whereas HPC members actually do their own analysis. The unquestioning reproduction of press releases, known as ‘churnalism’, has been discussed on many threads on here, and is best exposed in the book Flat Earth News by Nick Davies. The journalists don’t do it out of malice, but simply because they do not have the time or resources to research real news stories. I don’t know how the monthly inflation figures are released to the media, but I would guess it is in the form of a press release from the Bank of England. Presumably the press release every month contains the word ‘unexpected’ in big, red, Eric-style letters!
  17. To be fair, ‘villa’ seems to be the standard term for a house, as opposed to a tenement flat, in the big cities in Scotland. You’ll often see it used in descriptions of perfectly average houses. In the case of some of the imposing Victorian stone houses, such as in Morningside in Edinburgh, it seems like an appropriate term, but it certainly does look ridiculous when applied to a semi-detached, walls-of-cardboard slave box!
  18. I make it 1.76% lower. Looking at the graphs section of this site, the Halifax (National) figure for November 2009 was £167,664. According to the Halifax report today, the November 2010 figure is £164,708. 164708 / 167664 = 0.982 Subtracting that from 1 gives 0.176, or 1.76%. I’ve just got very confused looking at the Halifax (National) figures as tabulated on this site, though. If the average price for October 2010 was £164,919 and the average price for October 2009 was £165,528, why was the annual change in October shown as +1.20%, rather than –0.37%? What am I doing wrong? The page I’m using for my data is http://housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-halifax-national.php
  19. There are no chavs in Scotland … just neds, their Scottish equivalent!
  20. By ‘sensible pricing’ in the title of this thread, I meant setting the asking price in line with the current sale prices for similar properties, with the result that the property sells reasonably quickly. For instance, for a Marchmont flat, FP 265 is a ‘sensible price’, as the flat in question sold quickly, presumably for 250K, whereas OA 300 is an aspirational, optimistic, and hence ‘not sensible’ price. (Several flats with asking prices in that area have been on the market for a few months now.) If a seller wants to sell a property, if they advertise it for a price which brings in the buyers, that is what I would call ‘sensible’, rather than setting the asking price at a level which attracts little or no interest. Sorry if that wasn’t more obvious, and that my knowledge of economic theory is not more comprehensive …
  21. Average prices in Edinburgh are down 3.7% YoY, according to the ESPC via the Evening News: House prices in the Capital fall for first time this year The ESPC October 2010 report is here.
  22. Well done for reading Flat Earth News – I have highly recommended it elsewhere on this forum. Reading that, we see how the journalists writing this drivel do not do so out of malice or even ignorance, but simply because they are not given the time or resources to seek out proper news, so they end up just copying out press releases. That doesn’t explain the BBC’s apparent editorial decisions to make a big thing about rising indices but almost ignore falling ones, though …
  23. No, ‘cause it’s a shithole. Some parts of London are (relatively) cheap and nasty, like Sydenham or Walthamstow; some parts are expensive and nice, like Muswell Hill or Dulwich; but some are expensive and nasty, like Hackney. It always struck me as the worst possible value for money. You might find other opinions in the London subforum, though.
  24. Sensibly-priced properties in Edinburgh actually sell! Where I am, in Marchmont, a two-bedroom flat in Spottiswoode Road came to the market on 21 October. Today, 27 October, it has gone from the ESPC and a ‘sold’ sticker been pasted across the sign. The flat was the standard size (around 85–90 m²) and in good condition. Rather than arsing about with prices like OA 300, OO 285 or whatever, the owner of this one put it straight on at FP 265. I would guess it has sold for 250K. The owner bought it for 222K five years ago, and it has been let out at least for the last three years, so he could afford to sell it for a sensible price. Even so, the speed of the sale has surprised me. I had posted previously about a genuine three-bed flat on the same road which had been on since late June, firstly at OA 340, then OO 330. On 10 October the price suddenly dropped to OO 295. Lo and behold, the flat sold – at least, it has gone from ESPC. With an asking price lower than that of some two-bedroom flats, it looked almost like fair value. Another two-bedroom flat has come to the market this week. It needs a new kitchen and bathroom and a lick of paint, but is on a very prestigious road, and has come straight on at OA 250. I expect this one, too, will sell quickly. Meanwhile a whole load of two-bedroom flats in Marchmont with asking prices around 285–315K continue to languish on the market. Evidently their owners are not bothered about whether they sell or not. Similarly there are a few larger flats in Thirlestane Road with just silly prices – 370–400K – which have been sitting around since the late summer. Presumably their owners also don’t care whether they sell or not. Please post any information about similarly sensibly-priced properties throughout Edinburgh in this thread.
  25. Edinburgh is a wonderfully compact city. There is no need to live right in the very centre, although it is perfectly affordable to do so. Areas such as Marchmont and Bruntsfield are within twenty minutes’ walk of the Old Town, while Stockbridge and Comely Bank are about twenty minutes from the New Town. These are all expensive areas though! Many other areas are just a shortish bus ride from the centre, although this can be time-consuming at peak times. Get a good, folding-out map like the Edinburgh Premier Map and you should get a feel for which districts are close to the centre. If you’re used to US cities, especially the vast urban sprawls of the midwest and west, you’ll be amazed how nearly half a million inhabitants can be crammed into such a small area that Edinburgh occupies!
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.