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House Price Crash Forum


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About wub1234

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  1. The society is so corrupt and markets so irrational by now that it's almost impossible to predict what will occur. Almost the complete opposite has occurred in financial markets after Trump's election compared to what was expected. This is because they are not remotely rational, they are dictated by knee-jerk speculators. Exactly the same applies to the housing market. All we can say with any confidence is that the housing market is in a massive bubble. It will probably get worse. Some people will make a tonne of money while it gets worse. Eventually it will burst. Some people will make a tonne of money when this happens. Some people will get burnt when this happens. Almost without exception, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer whatever happens and whenever it happens.
  2. I am probably going to buy next year. I could hold on longer, but considering what I'm paying in rent, I'm barely going to make any money out of it anyway. By this time next year, the market will have dropped a bit and buyers will be in a stronger position. I think I can afford to be a cash buyer (just). Then I can start thinking about whether I can save enough to ever retire.
  3. Couldn't see this posted anywhere else, apologies if it is: http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/rightmove-house-prices-fall-0-9-brexit/#.V4waHZMrLVo
  4. May will do absolutely nothing to address this whatsoever.
  5. I wrote something brief about the debt situation on the Guardian's CIF site recently. Someone responded by saying: And his / her response was upvoted more than my initial comment. The state of denial and ignorance is quite incredible.
  6. He simply won't get a state pension. I'm not sure what other type of pension he'd be expecting other people to pay for.
  7. I'm sure he'll be much more consumed with who to poke in the eye next.
  8. I like the suggestion he made that "common sense must prevail". What better phrase to describe a situation where someone owns 1,000 houses?
  9. Interest rates will be cut. They can't risk anything else. They're going to kick this can as far down the road as possible, no matter how battered it gets. We should be embarrassed by what we've allowed to happen in Britain. I went to look at a flat the other day because one day I might decide to buy one. Obviously i've given up on an actual house unless my circumstances change. I've saved up around £110,000. I went to look at a not particularly large two-bedroom flat. Guide price: £235,000. It was an absolute sh*t tip. The building was awful as well, extremely poorly maintained with stained carpets that looked like they'd never been cleaned. Of course, in London it would have been £500,000. At least! That was a bad example, you can get better stuff than that around here for less, but it's not in any way unrepresentative of the overall situation. Imagine if you were a young person trying to buy that. You'd need to save up £47,000 for starters (how, I don't know), even then that's far too big a mortgage. What are you going to get for £100-£150,000? Not much. I went to Wimbledon a few years back, and you walk through Wimbledon village to get to the tennis club. It's nice enough, it's okay, I wouldn't mind living there. I was reading the other day that the average house price there is £1.5 million. Imagine if you're a kid growing up there in a suburban home, you have absolutely no chance of enjoying the same standard of living as your parents. You will never live there. You are fortunate that you will inherit a lot of money one day (probably), but you have been so screwed over by this society. And the worse thing is...so few people that I encounter actually understand this.
  10. Lots of people have made good points here, but consider the following. I came out of school knowing absolutely nothing about economics, and next to nothing about the way the world works. I had some instinctive beliefs, which pretty much all turned out to be correct. But I only informed those beliefs in my own time. You only learn anything of substance in this life via experience and autodidacticism. They don't tell you anything useful in school. You will come out of school with nothing to prepare for you for the outside world. As intended. People can't understand why young people can't see that this could be a good thing for them economically. It's because they don't know anything about economics and little about the world outside of fashion and fads and youth culture and the pointless academic subjects that they're made to study. If you think back to when you left school, no matter what age you are and what background you come from, you will probably reflect that you were the same. You're simply not supposed to come out of the education system with any meaningful understanding, you're supposed to come out of it in the state that George Carlin spoke about:
  11. I don't pay the licence fee. My only interests are sport and current affairs, and the BBC has virtually no sport and its coverage of current affairs is hugely detrimental to the population. Obviously I will be watching Wimbledon and the Euros at a friend's house...
  12. One of the big problems we have nowadays is that all of the 'media organisations' just want to attract traffic. The Daily Mail is a particularly strange publication that contradicts itself routinely! But they just use sensationalism to make people click on their articles, and according to what I have read it works extremely well. What I object to is the way that the media has reported on this, particularly TV and especially the BBC, and the general climate. I expected nothing else, but it has been worse than I anticipated. I feel that the establishment, whether economic, corporate or political, always wanted a 'remain' vote, and now that they haven't got what they wanted, they're just out to scare people using the media. If you sat in front of the TV news, again particularly the BBC news, you would get the impression that there is now a state of total chaos. Much of this chaos is avoidable political opportunism, and they've exaggerated the economic impact and explained none of the potentially positive economic aspects of leaving the EU, as outlined in a video someone linked to earlier in this thread. I consider this fundamentally deceitful. And it's helping to create an almost frenzied atmosphere in which some people who voted 'remain' can't accept the result. It is disgraceful that people are pushing for another referendum and the SNP are threatening to veto the verdict. I voted 'leave', but although I would have been disappointed if 'remain' had won (a result I was largely resigned to), I definitely wouldn't have insulted anyone, and not for one second would I have demanded another referendum. I believe in direct democracy, this sort of process should take place far more often. It's extremely sad that some people can't respect the result. I have seen the most ridiculous and reprehensible comments online regarding this. And it doesn't help when the media (you're right that pro-Brexit publications can be equally sensationalist) go out of their way to scare the crap out of everyone. And I think a lot of their assertions don't stand up to any merit at this point in time. Whether it will turn out to be a good or bad thing economically in the long run remains to be seen, and is a very nuanced issue. But I think, as a public service broadcaster, the BBC in particular has a responsibility to inform people calmly what is going on and put it in a meaningful context. That is a country mile from what they are actually doing.
  13. I can't really comment, but my boiler broke down in January (a thoroughly depressing time!) so that was several thousand down the drain for him! I'm sure a lot of these investments don't work out, but people are told over and over again that you can't lose with property (and there's no moral reason preventing you from doing so). I actually could buy a flat now, I looked at a couple recently. I've got a lot more money in the bank than most people (not a huge achievement considering virtually no-one saves anything, and many can't anyway), and investments as well. I now wonder if this is the right time and if the market might correct a little. So I'm not sure what to do, really. But I will probably hang on a bit.
  14. Firstly, thanks for the response. That is a valid point. But, as I said in the OP, the value of sterling has been between $1.40 and $1.45 since the beginning of 2016. It is now $1.36. Is this the catastrophe that the TV news has made it appear? No, it isn't. Obviously if the pound lost all value in a Zimbabwe-type situation then it would be disastrous, but at present I would suggest that for the average person the fall in sterling of a few percent, much of which is wiping out gains made when the market believed that the UK would remain in the EU, will be barely noticeable. I think I made it 100% clear that sterling has fallen to $1.36, and that this is a low level, but that since the 2008 crash it has been trading in the ballpark of this value for the majority of the time. I said in the OP: "this happened over a longer time period". I did say that the picture with the FTSE is different to the others. In my opinion, stocks are massively overvalued across the planet, and have been falsely inflated by the ridiculous credit environment. Even if stocks haven't gone up in the UK, I still think they've overvalued because they're not operating in a rational interest rate environment. We don't see their true worth because the market conditions in the UK are just intended to artificially maintain credit and liquidity in order to keep things going; effectively like zapping a heart attack patient with a defibrillator. And already the solution to this 'crisis' being floated is for the Bank of England to lower interest rates further still. I can easily see the UK ending up with negative interest rates, but as long as the stock market holds up we'll be told by the BBC that the economy is functioning superbly and in the public's interest. Not really the case, in my estimation. I appreciate many people disagree with that view. Thanks for mentioning this, I don't know anything about this at all. I haven't really given any consideration to this because, the way I see it, only a privileged minority of my generation will be able to retire. The rest of us will probably work until we die. I agree with that, but, as you say yourself, the media isn't really putting things in those terms! This was categorically presented as an economic disaster. Thanks again for the thoughtful response.
  15. Thanks, no problem. Thanks for posting this, I will circulate it as widely as possible. I was just trying to imagine this appearing on the BBC, and how much the presenters would s*** themselves...
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