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House Price Crash Forum

crow

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  1. Thought a few of you might find the graphs and data here interesting (scroll down for UK) https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/ Some discussion on Hacker News: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28594201 Though since they are mainly silicon Valley types and comments are amusing : Quote: helen___keller 33 minutes ago [–] > On the housing side, I suspect consumers purchase the house that their cashflow can comfortably support, not necessarily the one where they believe it is correctly valued, because the assumption that house values only increase means purchasing a well constructed house is almost never a "bad deal." I'd agree with this. I think housing in my area is wildly overpriced, but I still bought a 100 year old condo for a solid million. Compared to renting, I got double the space, plus parking, plus a private garden, plus an outdoor patio, and my monthly costs went up about 25%. Million....
  2. I'd expect to pay more for that 'feature internal drain pipe' - very stylish.
  3. I read ages ago that the average homeless person in central London 'costs' around £15k a year in hospital bills, policing, clean up, drug support services etc. A small London charity found a number of long term street homeless and basically gave them £5k to spend however they saw fit - as long as it supported them getting off the streets. For some that was a deposit and 3 months rent, one guy bought a caravan and moved to Wales, others went back to families as for the first time they could without straight away feeling like a burden. After a year only a couple of them had returned to the streets, most were clean and living happier lives. But can you imagine the uproar if we gave everyone who needed it £5k - even though in this case it is saving £10k a year ongoing. I have no answer, but I think there is plenty of learn from countries that think longer term (homelessness, Foster care, prisons etc)
  4. Company I work with has given mildly mixed messages - some areas seem keen to get people in 2 to 3 days a week, others are more 1 day a week or every 2 weeks, if there is a need. But no area wil be 100 percent office based again. If someone has a need they can request to be totally office based or totally home based, but most people will work a mix. Pretty much everyone else I know at a company a decent size is being told that remote working at least part of the week is the new plan, it is only the smaller places that seem keen to get people back in. Even those colleagues who weren't enjoying remote work at first are now pretty sold, I don't know anyone choosing to be totally in the office, and that goes for the biggest bosses and the call centre staff.
  5. How high should they be? When I bought my first flat we had a 4.35 percent interest only mortgage, the flat we bought had gone from £90k two years before we bought it (2004) to £145k when we bought it (2006) to £185k when we sold it (2008). When we sold in 2008 the cheapest mortgage we could get on our next place was 5.62 percent tracker interest only - so interest wasn't that cheap then, and was actually getting pricier. Then the cash came. The £240k house we'd bought would have been £200k if we'd sold it (judging by other houses that did sell between 2009 and 2012) but our mortgage went down to about £300 a month until we moved out 10 years later. During that period the interest rates were low, but the price of houses on our street barely moved for nearly 4 years (but yes by 2018 they had gone nuts...) How high do you think they need to be?
  6. I live by the sea and I'm hearing from friends who rent that most landlords want to do holiday let's now as the money is so good and the tax is cheaper I think as can still claim wear and tear. Means locals are really struggling to find anywhere to rent here.
  7. “Great resignation” wave coming for companies https://www.axios.com/resignations-companies-e279fcfc-c8e7-4955-8a9b-47562490ee55.html Quote: Companies that made it through the pandemic in one piece now have a major new problem: more than a quarter of their employees may leave. I can see some massive changes ahead - though it is going to mainly be the white collars who benefit, but the chances for change will be there for everyone willing to jump.
  8. Just came here to post the same. Great news, I hope this means that fewer landlords can buy. Equally still rubbish news that the prices are so high to start with...
  9. I reckon there was a lot of work to do. They had an architect around a lot, maybe they were good at haggling and the probate just wanted to sell. Had two more friends in Norwich both have their sales fall through today, they are gutted.
  10. Question is do you want the house and do you like the house? If you don't have any connection to it, are haply renting and waiting 6 months to a year is no problems for you - then wait. 2008 I bought the most expensive house on the street and prices fell £40k which was 20 percent. We just sat tight and the house was fine for us and we could afford the mortgage so living their wasn't an issue - was a little gutted we didn't wait but if we had not sure we would have gotten mortgage. Took about 5 years for prices to get back to what we paid, and then things go nuts again and sold it for much more but also had to pay much more for the house we are in now.
  11. I personally think we are already seeing the crash - it is just the crash is confined to the houses that people don't want. Flats are dropping, plus inner city places with no space or gardens. In the last crash yes some prices dropped 20 percent but it was mainly the houses people didn't want or the owners had to sell that were for sale. Most people held tight if they could. Sadly the same will happen again and in 5 years the march upwards will continue. 40 year mortgages etc will become the norm... My kids will be screwed. If only I'd bought bitcoin...
  12. Interestingly a house that a friend put an offer on and was told that vendor (probate) had already accepted full asking - but looking on LR is went for £45k under the asking - but it did seem to be a very long sale.
  13. It is all sorts but loads of holiday let folks. A few friends in Norwich are even looking for holiday homes here but can't really afford it. Def a few Londoners heading this way but also plenty from all over the country - I live in a holiday town so people come here on holiday and decide to move. Gut feel five years ago it was more retirees moving here or def those mid 50s, and now there are a few more in their 40s or younger - but still plenty of older folk who have the money. This is the oldest county in England I believe...
  14. My sister in law visited at the weekend - she's a banks mortgage advisor. Said there are loads of panicked buyers realising they won't hit the stamp duty cut off but not sure what to do, for fear of missing out. And loads of people either looking to buy or sell new flats and realising they can't get mortgages on them and can't sell them, as they don't have the paper work to prove they are safe. Sad there will be loads of people trapped because they bought and unsafe flat.
  15. When we first moved here someone told me East Anglia falls last but falls the furthest... Amazing seeing the amount I people and money coming here currently (I can't complain we did too a few years back) impossible to book a builder for months as so much work is going on.
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