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House Price Crash Forum

crow

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  1. We are on a 5 year fix now, wish we'd gone for a 10 as would have been a greater incentive to over pay now, but let's see what the market is like when we renew.
  2. Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/u-k-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-financial-crisis Quote: Yield curve inversion is viewed as a harbinger of recession The U.S. government bond market sounded alarms Wednesday as investors fleeing riskier assets drove the 30-year bond’s yield to a record low and the 10-year yield fell below the two-year for the first time since 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped as much as 1.9 basis points below the two-year yield in what’s considered a harbinger of a U.S. economic recession beginning in the next 18 months. That expectation, nurtured in recent weeks by worsening U.S.-China trade relations and signs global growth is slowing, was bolstered Wednesday by weak Chinese and German economic data And some great discussions here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20694275
  3. Nah you want 2009 prices for London. The house we bought for £235k in 07/08 (offered 07 completed 08) dropped at least £35k by 2009. First it was crappy houses selling at £199k on our road, but pretty soon that became the ceiling on the road for the next 5 years. And that was with all the levers being pulled to stop them dropping further.
  4. UK housing market at its weakest point in a decade, says Savills https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/08/uk-housing-market-at-its-weakest-point-in-a-decade-brexit-says-savills?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard The declines have been led by London, where prices have fallen after years of rapid inflation. The average price of London homes sold by Savills fell by 32%, to £2.1m, in the first half of 2019 compared with the previous year, as the company shifted towards less expensive homes to make up for a weakness in “prime properties” – those worth more than £1.5m. Volumes of more expensive prime homes in central London fell by 13%.
  5. Sky have got the message https://news.sky.com/story/house-prices-dip-for-second-consecutive-month-11779178 House prices dip for second consecutive month
  6. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-houseprices/uk-house-prices-unexpectedly-fall-in-july-halifax-idUKKCN1UX0Q3 Love that the headline is 'unexpectedly fall' - we've certainly been expecting that!
  7. https://www.getreading.co.uk/news/property/berkshire-house-prices-falling-how-16688870 Not much denying it now, spreading well out of London.
  8. Indeed, I don't see a happy path ahead right now, don't see how the NHS will last in any real form if we do any kind of real deal with the US - but just depends how bad things get, to see what we are prepared to take I guess
  9. Was some interesting comments from the American Irish community about the removal of the backstop and how they would veto any us/uk trade deal that didn't include protection of the backstop - and Ireland and stability/security there is obviously very important to them.. Brexit certainly will be about the reduction or removal of standards - was almost funny hearing lines about how we'd only want to increase standards if we left during the referendum - when the eu has never stopped us increasing standards over and above. Fun times and dirty cheap meat ahead...
  10. Have I been shadow banned, or was this just not an interesting post?
  11. UK retailers record longest period of falling sales in eight years https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/25/uk-retailers-record-longest-period-of-falling-sales-in-eight-years Will Boris's bung help get people spending? Will be worth about £240 a month to me (if he actually does it) but it will just get me saving more and preparing for the down turn. Suddenly my job isn't feeling so secure... All my friends that I talk to about the impending recession and/or hpc just shrug, even the chap I met at the weekend who does up houses for a living didn't seem concerned. Even when I pointed out Boris wants to move the stamp duty to him. Personally think moving SD to the seller is a great idea, esp to help curb multi home ownership/landlording.
  12. https://www.fromthemurkydepths.co.uk/2019/07/23/greenwich-house-prices-keep-falling-tower-hamlets-plummets/ Quote : Both measures are somewhat volatile and prone to distortion when new build “Help to Buy” properties are on the market – assuming they sell. Southwark’s annual figures are likely a result of this. Tower Hamlets figures look particularly bad at almost 14 per cent down on the year. Lambeth at 17.2 per cent down is also pretty stark. Prime central London reductions have been seen for some time now.
  13. Won't somebody think of the poor multi property landlords! The 'lucky' ones will be below the threshold - those who own in most of the south will be hit hard by this - if they were planning to sell in the next 5 years there is no way they can just whack the price up, with the crash in full swing..
  14. Yes... But how far - I reckon we'll see about 20% in total - but so many things thaf could change that either way. But def 20% from top... Then how long back up? Just 6 years again or is this the big one?
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