kibuc
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Posts posted by kibuc
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On 14/08/2018 at 10:19, inbruges said:
In reality the importance of that job should be up there with home secretary or Chancellor
There shouldn't be any need for such position as Housing Minister, like we don't need Breathing Ministers or Shagging Ministers... yet. It's an artificial position, created to solve (ha ha) problems caused by inept Ministers in other positions.
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48 minutes ago, MinistryMan said:
because they feel the scenario is so unlikely, she said they have never thought to look in to it
Can help but feel like I'm watching Big Short again, when Bale asks Goldman Sachs representatives about reassurances in case of bank insolvency and all they can come up with is "are you for real?". Housing always, ALWAYS only goes up.
Yet when I'm flying from Poland to Germany, 100% over dry land, I still have to go through the life vest training. In the unlikely event of a water landing...
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On 10/07/2018 at 19:54, Horseradish said:
Wow ?.
You could say that again.
No wonder people are still going after 600k London 2-bed flats. With 5% deposit and 40% equity loan, as long it stays above 330k they are golden. In fact, if it actually hits 330k-is, it would be a great time to do a swap with your neighbour next door and free the both of you from that pesky equity loan.
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I think they will.
Carney cares about his image more than anything in the world, and right now it doesn't look good for him. He cried wolf too many times before.
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8 minutes ago, Horseradish said:
Care to share your source for that
I would if I could, so you have to take my word for it - or not
8 minutes ago, Horseradish said:There's no ambiguity in the Help to Buy Equity Loan Funding Administration Agreement - the only ambiguity was in the secondary sources you quoted above.
From a very quick glance: isn't that an agreement between a Funding Provider (Homes for England, I presume) and an Agent? While my sources spoke about obligations on the buyer.
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50 minutes ago, Horseradish said:
Yup. You can actually use it as a hedge against a fall in the housing market if you're forced to buy a place, and you can hedge 2/5ths in London (of course it's better to not buy if you're convinced that a House Price Crash is imminent, like most of us on here).
I think HTB would actually be a good option AFTER the crash - pitifully low initial interest rate only semi-linked to RPI combined with the 5-year grace period blows any available mortgage out of the water - if those newbuilds had at least an ounce of quality in them.
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1 hour ago, Horseradish said:
Er... it is true. Your sources are unfortunately a bit ambiguous. They boil down to:
- "If the market value of your property falls below the level at which it was first purchased, you will repay less"
- "you will not be required to provide for any shortfall"
However, if you inspect the Equity Loan Agreement legal text, you'll find the following on page 74:
"The amount of the required repayment is equivalent to the value of the property (or the actual sale price if higher) at the date of repayment (whether that value has increased or decreased) multiplied by the Contribution Percentage.
By way of illustration, if the Contribution Percentage is 20%, the Buyer must pay the Agency 20% of the sale price when he or she sells the property. The actual amount to be repaid will therefore increase if the property increases in value but will decrease if the property decreases in value. The Agency, via the Help to Buy Agent, will require a copy of the property valuation before exchange of contracts." (emphasis mine)
Thus it's not a [max] 40% (20% outside London) cushion, but instead operates as I outlined above. The points you quoted are still true - you repay less and are not liable for a shortfall - but it's proportional rather than a cushion as you describe. I'd be very surprised if the government had allowed their debt to be subordinated.
I've seen a clarification on that which explained that it is, in fact, a non-recourse loan in disguise. If you sell at a loss with agent's blessing and repay your mortgage in full, you're now liable for the remaining 20% or 40% of the sale price. If you can cover it with whatever is left, you're expected to do so but if there's a shortfall then you just repay whatever is left of the proceeding from the sale and you're scot free, as long as you complied with all obligations towards your mortgage provider.
If there's any ambiguity there, and if (when) the crash comes, I'd expect any government to disambiguate it as above, with poor, over-leveraged "homeowners" pissing their pants with joy and the hard-saving, non-gdp-friendly losers picking up the tab.
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11 hours ago, Horseradish said:
Good point, but it's not quite like that. Each portion of the property takes a proportional hit - so with the max the owner takes 60% of the downside, and the government 40%. There's still scope in there for the above scenario. But it doesn't have to be negative equity; continuing flat wage growth is going to mean that these people will find it very hard to chuck an extra 40% onto their mortgage - the bank's just not going to swallow the extra risk.
That's not true I'm afraid.
If you sell your HTB house at a loss (assuming that your HTB agent approves your sale price) and repay your mortgage, the agent will accept whatever is left and call it even. So a 40% equity loan actually gives buyers a 40% cushion before they enter negative equity.
QuoteIf the market value of your property falls below the level at which it was first purchased, you will repay less than the original amount the Agency contributed to the purchase. As long as you have complied with all your obligations in the Help to Buy mortgage deed, you will not be required to provide for any shortfall in the equity loan if you sell when values have fallen.
https://www.helptobuynw.org.uk/help-advice/selling-your-existing-home/
QuoteAs long as you have complied with all your obligations in the Help to Buy mortgage deed, you will not be required to provide for any shortfall in the equity loan repayment if you sell when values have fallen.
https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/Help-to-Buy-Buyers-Guide-Feb-2018-FINAL.pdf
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17 minutes ago, Monkey said:
Its a business upto the point where they have to pay taxes like a business and then they cry foul
Spot on. They are businessmen for income purposes and charities for tax purposes.
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17 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:
Interest rate rise tomorrow
Haha, suddenly I found myself counting on it, against all reason
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16 hours ago, dropbear said:
Developers are already cheating when it comes to pricing. They offer to pay the stamp duty and also free furniture with new flats sold.
This means the buyer effectively pays, for example, £610k for a 2 bed flat but the land registry has the sold price recorded at £630k.
More importantly, having your STLD & furniture paid for by the dev allows you to put together a larger deposit, to get an even larger mortgage.
Mortgage providers should see right through it and value the property as-is, ignoring any perks - it's their money and their risk after all - but it only takes one to accept the face value.
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Stable? Stable equilibrium is death.
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3 hours ago, GreenDevil said:
Could of taken this pic in many parts of the UK...
Precisely. My first instinct was to say outskirts of Manchester or Bradford high street.
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17 hours ago, thewig said:
I feel a new line on the rent statement coming on...
You're getting rent statements? Fancy!
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"For stocks dealt before 1 May 2018 the exchange rate above will include a spread of up to 1.5% added by HL or a market maker."
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Falling demand for sure, desperation - not yet. That would be where they get "creative" and embarrass themselves with "an iPad and free avocado toast breakfast for a year" kind of promos. So far they've been offering to pay SDLT and maybe a "free" parking space, which is pretty standard for a slow but not-yet-desperate market.
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As I recently had to remind my EA during the renewal process, they provide absolutely no service to me.
They prepare the property for listing so the LL doesn't have to.
They list it so the LL doesn't have to.
They deal with queries and viewings so the LL doesn't have to.
They verify prospective tenants so the LL doesn't have to.
They produce and negotiate the agreement so the LL doesn't have to.
Finally, they handle closing the deal (signing, handing out keys, inventory) so the LL doesn't have to.
Then, during the tenancy, they handle all the business (deposit protection & property maintenance) so the LL doesn't have to.
On the other hand, I still have to go through the process, regardless of who's on the other end. I need to search for a suitable property, dedicate my time to view it, prove my income and residency status, negotiate the deal and then read it cover to cover. I need to turn up in person to sign it and collect the keys. I need to report issues as soon as they occur. What exact burden is EA taking off me that would justify any fees or charges?
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I went to rehab for gambling back in the day, a mixed group for all kinds of addictions so I met quite a few potheads there. All shared the same story of how it sneaked up on them, going perfectly unnoticed until some point in their lives where they realized they were still in the same spot as 5 or 10 years prior. Attention issues aplenty, and some struggled with putting together a coherent sentence.
Having said that, they were absolute rock stars compared to most of the life-hardened alcoholics & shooters. -
1 hour ago, inbruges said:
you try to get the Polish to take their fair share of Islamic refugees, it just ain't going to happen
The "fair share" of middle-eastern migrants for any European country is 0, so I'd say Poland is pulling its weight.
If you're fleeing from Syria to Turkey, you're a refugee. If you then decide to hop from Turkey to Italy or Greece, you're a migrant.
The only war-torn region that EU borders is Ukraine and Poland has already welcomed roughly 1m escapees. How many have other countries taken?
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20 hours ago, ccc said:
She must hear some stories.
You could say that again. On the other hand, they aren't any different to the ones she used to hear back in Poland. Under any latitude and longitude people seem to struggle with the same stuff, like parental issues, money, addictions, cross-cheating, married guys falling in love with hookers and knocking up both the girl and the wife in a single week...
What is absent are any signs of anxiety regarding Brexit.
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25 minutes ago, ccc said:
I was commenting on the logic. As you say yourself - simply looking at population means very little. There are plenty of variables involved. I'm sure there are stats out there. Probably not form Gov.UK though. They aren't interested.
What does your wife do that means she only deals with Polish migrants BTW ?!
She's a psychologists. Her English is passable but nowhere near the proficiency required to work with the natives. Language is her main tool of trade and it needs to be top-notch.
It gives her a solid insight into the biggest migrant community in London, though. Naturally, she only get's to see people who can afford her services, which might be skewing the data a bit.
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12 minutes ago, ccc said:
That's pretty shaky logic to say the least.
Is it? Wroclaw's population went from 636 268 in 2004 to 637 683 in 2016. I don't see a massive exodus there.
One could argue that migrants from the cities were simply replaced by fresh imports from smaller towns and villages, but that's where I'd have to question the logic - people in rural areas, often heavily deprived, battling much higher unemployment and a depressing lack of prospects, had plenty more reasons to emigrate, and they did in droves.
Also, as an anecdotal evidence, my wife works exclusively with polish migrants and those coming from major cities are very few and far between. And she's gone through hundreds. -
Plenty of stuff to do and see in Wroclaw, which has just been voted European Top Destination for year 2018. I might be biased having lived there for over 30 years and working in IT where Wroclaw excels, but I found it a great mix of job opportunities and life-quality features, assuming you're willing to work.
Very few people migrated to UK from major polish cities, as evidenced by their population figures since the early 90s. In fact, Gdansk, Wroclaw and Warsaw have all increase their population, albeit marginally, since 2004, and Poznan has been on a steady downtrend since 1990.
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10 minutes ago, Castlevania said:
EDIT: So if I sold something for a huge gain a few days before a profit warning and then repurchased the shares for a song, I wouldn’t be liable for CGT?
I imagine so, although you'd have to exit the market at some point, and your taxable profits would very likely be even greater by then.
This is where a spouse comes in handy.
Boom Rightmove -2.3%
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Precisely. Rich didn't get rich by catching falling knives.