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House Price Crash Forum

tomato3000

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About tomato3000

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  1. The 'problem' (not sure it's actually a problem) with Stamp Duty is that it has to be paid - cash (not pretend paid). This is a serious headache for people addicted to buying things on future earnings rather than historical. Also, because it is cash, it has to be taken out of the deposit rather than the purchase price. Thus each £1 of stamp duty equates to ~£5 of purchase price.
  2. I live in the Thames Valley, just got a flyer through the door - estate agent offering to sell for 0.65% fees. With fees that low they'll need to increase volume. Increased volume means telling the darling sellers they need to drop the price...
  3. I've seen multiple re-orgs, all go the same. A system, which is not fit for purpose, but everyone has figured out how to get to work is 'revamped'. For 6 months to a year noone knows how to get things done and lots of political games where people try to increase their power. After this, it settles down and everyone knows where they stand and how to get things done despite the processes. Then a new manager comes determined to 'make an impact' and starts a reorg...
  4. I think this is part of the problem. High up managers look at a multinationals like Tesco or McDonalds that have basically commoditised their workforce and think it is 'best practice'. They think if they apply those approaches (standardisation, process engineering, etc.) they can reduce workforce pay and maintain quality. For complex technical roles - you can't! There's so many things that you look at and go 'why do we do it like that?' and it's only when an experienced person turns around and says 'well we had these issues before and it stops those issues' if they leave you just make the same mistakes again and again. I can definitely identify with the Planner/Project Manager self perpetuating cycle. I think we now have 1 planner for every 2 machinists because targets were not being met. They hired planners rather than machinists to try to increase production - crazy! There is obviously a massive diminishing return on planners.
  5. As we know the UK economy is one of the most unproductive in the world. On top of that there are numerous crises (Doctors/Education/...). One of the common factors I see around the UK is a reverence for management (I don't mean in the general public but in bussiness). It seems to me many of the problems in many sectors (i.e NHS/Teachers/science/engineering) come from people not being trusted to do their job by their managers who add lots of unecessary 'processes' that just result in more paperwork, which mean people rush, which means mistakes happen, which results in more 'processes'. To add insult to injury these managers, who largely get in the way of skilled workers, are much better renumerated! They clearly are not adding value so why is it rewarded? I remember some years ago I read an article that suggested that staying technical made your career more resiliant in downturns as 'it's easy to cut middle management, but not the people that create stuff'. Having seen the recession come and 'go' I can say I have not seen any axing of middle management, in fact it seems to be growing. I read in the recent 'State of the Nation 2016' social mobility report that by 2024 half of all jobs will be management. As an economy that's 1 manager for every worker! I, for one, fully intend to try to exploit this trend and am attempting to join management asap. I'd be interested to hear other people's thought's and analysis.
  6. Not sure why but I think that property prices might be on the turn. Nothing concrete, just anecdotals from some London renters I know now talking about moving to get cheaper rent and all the MSM screaming about BTL pain. The problem is, I'm not really sure how to profit from a fall in property prices...since I have a house it'd actually be just be a hedge (which is what any competent investor should consider). The only things I can think of are: buy gold or short some builders shares on a trading website. Can retail investors get options on property indices?
  7. The key detail is who decides the price? I trust literally no one in the industry to do the valuation. What's to stop builders saying: 1 bed flat is £1M. Oh it wont sell. Government buys...
  8. I've considered this. I think you have to be really willing to learn the language. One issue was deciding where to go, I don't mind learning one langauge but more than one would be too difficult/expensive. With regard to where, I think the issue is that the if you want a 1st world experience like the UK then you're looking at Northern Europe which has similar weather. If you want nice weather you have to put up with worse infrastructure/corruption. Finally there is the HPI issue which means if you leave it's likely you'll never be able to return as you wont be able to afford anything. I'm also considering the US.
  9. Two properties I've been watching for a few of months in Maidenhead have been taken off (not sold). This might be the start of an absolute dive in volumes in the short term. Whether this turns into a stagnation (like 2008 in SE) or significant fall probably depends on if stimulus is forthcoming...
  10. Had similar things happen to me numerous times. I always put it down to the EA: wanting to increase turnover, if the seller get's it into their head they can get a few more £k they might keep trying it on and then take ages to sell the house. I've noticed EAs are generally only keen on showing houses the first week or so it's on the market. After that they often seem to consider it a waste of time. cotinue an 'exisitng relationship'. This occurs especially when a 'bargain' (i.e. under current market price) comes on the market. You call up the first day it's on RM and 'sorry, it's already sold'. Drive past a few weeks later and see a skip outside, next month or so it's flipped/up for rent.
  11. I bought in Maidenhead a couple of months ago. Many of the houses I saw on rightmove are still there with the same price. At the moment I agree with the poster above, I think you will see a re-run of the 2008-2013 scenario of prices hardly budging but very low volumes. I think the only way prices are going down is if interest rates go up to push people into needing to sell. I bought in 2011 and even though there were almost no viewers for the flat I bought, they only dropped the price 5k. People seem to take the view 'the price is the price' and with no real market you can't convince them otherwise.
  12. Sounds right. For context I was reading 'lots of articles in the MSM'.
  13. Quick question - What does MSM stand for, seen if a lot and can't figure it out?
  14. Interesting article comparing 'quality of life' (i.e. PPP adjusted salaries) across various european countries. UK has dropped from 3rd to 9th on a PPP basis. Of course the most amazing thing is that a property price boom has been occuring while the economy is going backwards... https://www.glassdoor.com/research/studies/europe-best-standard-of-living/ https://research-content.glassdoor.com/app/uploads/sites/2/2016/04/Wages_StandardofLiving_Final.pdf
  15. While it's true that Reading property is completly irrational (why are new offices being built by the station when others down the road have had vacancies since the crash?) my point is that I don't think a crash is coming in the short term (1-2 years). I was thinking the BTL tax might trigger a fall but early indications suggest this is not the case.
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