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House Price Crash Forum

Jeely piece

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About Jeely piece

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  1. The trend is clear. It will never be a crash in Aberdeen, rather a long term continued downward spiral, maybe around 7% per year, Truth is currently, not much coming on the market, but that is seasonal. Once we get to March or so, much more will come on the market, and to be honest, there are just not that many buyers. The real poison in the ointment is all the new properties available, which to be honest market themselves to be the winners of the competition. Three home purchasers I know currently have gone for new builds. Two Home purchasers I know have gone for old properties. What ever your own viewpoint is the new builds are winning the race, the deal they offer may include carpets, legal fees, chosen kitchens and bathrooms, LBTT, etc, plus all the advantages of the 10 year NBC guarantee and 1 or 2 year snagging list.With people preferring to buy new properties that means the supply will only increase in Aberdeenshire, and personally working in the oil and gas industry, I can guarantee that there will not be a big influx of people into Aberdeen to buy the surplus of houses 6000-7000 currently available. So simple supply and demand theory says prices will not recover. But get real folks, they are not going to drop more than 5-7% per year, so depending on your rental outgoing, you may be as well buying a property and enjoying being the owner and doing what you want to it, rather than renting and not living the life you really want.
  2. On ASPC, 17 Cluny Meadows, Sauchen, under offer at 345K. Last sold at 470K in 2014 as new build. Definite indicator of slump/crash conditions. Great house for that price, somebody got a bargain. Market definitely flooded with this type of family home in the commuter towns, many sticking a long time now in various locations. In Aberdeen central area, good size family homes especially if.done up nicely, still seem to be moving so market conditions reasonable if sellers are slightly flexible on price.
  3. My prediction for what's it's worth, is that the Aberdeen market will stagnate, and house prices will continue to drop, sAy 10-20%. Worldwide, the oil business will stabilize, and oil price will be stable at between 50-70 Usd. Most of the world have lower operating Costs than Aberdeen, so stable oil prices will see oil companies focusing on where they can make a profit, so Aberdeen will likely continue to see downsizing, and downward pressure on house pricing, as more people depart for the more profitable overseas oil centers. No one will be moving in to this area, so the 5000 or so houses currently for sale will only continue to increase, do prices can only go down.
  4. Surveyor makes a comment, but doesn't reflect that in the valuation. Would think they'd be lucky to get more than 500k in this market. Nice house, though.
  5. Also Noticed today an ASPC relist of large house on hammerman drive, priced now at 450K, was valued 2 months ago at 500k so probably first came on at that price. 450k is now 30k below the 2007 price which is a significant indicator. Nice spacious houses, but those houses were well over priced in 2007 for the area they are in.
  6. There are definitely a number of delists going on. We viewed quite a few houses recently to upgrade our small 3 bed to 4-5 bed house. Saw some lovely houses mostly owned by 50+ empty nesters. Most of those guys were not working or close to retirement, keen to go off and live their dream, e.g. Retire to France /Spain or England, but stuck cos they can't sell their house. All were likely mortgage free, so staying put doesn't cost anything, just puts the dream on hold. Misguided though in my opinion, they longer they hold on, the less their asset is worth. So most delists I'd say are not not empty or dormant, just people take it off market for a while thinking things will pick up in a year or so.
  7. Yep, honestly am local aberdonian, but been too long in the industry that I talk posh and call a flat an apartment, but can spik Doric thin I wan tae, nae doot aboot 'at.
  8. Haha.. So you think I am too optimistic on the average person's ability to budget or to know what makes good common sense! 20 years ago I was a young grad geologist in Aberdeen, bought a place and was paying off at least 10 % of my house every year, even though I was only on a starter salary. After 4 or 5 years, I owned half my apartment. But then again I was a local aberdonian, and I was brought up to be frugal, and save for a rainy day. It was in my genes to minimize what I owe to others. I still think many people will think along those lines, so a llot of people may not owe too much on properties they are trying to sell now. There will always be some of the population who spend, spend, spend every month, and cannot afford to carry on if they lose their job, but I tend to think that is the dumb minority. Maybe I am biased because I tend to work and socialize with fairly careful sensible people.
  9. Agree with recent comments. Don't think there will be sudden crash, it will happen very gradual over 1, 2, 3 years as people realize houses are not selling, and prices gradually readjust. It's too easy to sit on it and wait currently. With mortgage interest so low, even if people are out of work, savings can be used for quite along time to cover payments. I think mr joe blogs average is not really the big big spender you read about on this website, so most people on high paid oil jobs (100k + pa) will have quite a lot of savings. Many may have paid off a big chunk of their mortgage whilst they were in work. If their house is on the market, it's only after 1 or 2 years that they will decide that they either bite the bullet and move on and sell up, or stay put for the long term. Most oil people are not local aberdeenshire, so eventually they will decide they want to move back home to England or retire to spain or Portugal. They don't really want a home in aberdeenshire, but at this point in time it's too hard to face that they missed the boat.
  10. So glad I found this site, it's reAlly helped me understand the dynamics of Aberdeen housing market. Made a number of offers on houses in Aberdeen, around 20% below valuation, and mainly owners say they will hold for valuation, cos that's what it's worth.have sympathy for people who bought in last couple of years, as they are losing money, but many greedy people, think they are entitled to large profits, especially where they bought 10 years ago. From my study of valuations, it's pretty worthless, virtually every property is valued at the highest price that a neighbouring house went for in last couple of years. Surveys would be much more useful if they indicated values for floor space and condition of house, and backed out somehow the influence of the false inflated oil economy in abz. I am gambling on the assumption that a 500,000 house in Aberdeen, may be worth 350,000 in the future, if you look at similar houses in Dundee. That assumes of course that Abz can create a sustainable economy post oil. Otherwise houses will,be worth f#%^ all.
  11. Anyone know a good source of info on houses that are repossessed? I am trying to buy a house in Aberdeen city, for around 20% below value, but most people don't want to sell, and are prepared to wait it out. They may be waiting a long time. In the mean time I would rather buy than rent, but not having much success. I think many people are not forced to sell because interest rates are low. I think there is a lot of greed out there, as people think there entitled to sell their house a 2014 peak prices, and they don't wAnt to consider less or maybe just 10k less - big deal! Valuations are unrealistically high in most cases in this market. Many people seem to think they are entitled to in some cases 50% profit in 10 years. I guess the market will self correct, but wish it would do it faster.
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