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House Price Crash Forum

MonkeyPuzzle

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About MonkeyPuzzle

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  1. Thank you. My reasons for voting for Brexit are all about pulling the UK out from under the vortex of neoliberal globalist corruption called the EU government - well ahead of its inevitable collapse. I want to give the UK a head start in staking claims to much better trade deals than the EU has imposed upon it. The UK has a net £70billion per annum trade deficit with the EU, and that's by design. Of course Germany has a net £100billion+ per annum trade surplus with the EU, and that's by design too. Disclosure: I'm an immigrant to the UK from a non-European country. I gained my UK citizenship in the 1990s. I was welcomed into the UK when I was a new graduate, and I've worked full time constantly throughout my life here, contributing a never-ending stream of taxes and taking out of the public purse not one penny for myself, ever. It's a wonderful place to live despite its problems, and don't let anyone else tell you otherwise. That's why I believe the UK should be allowed to pick and choose its immigrants according to the number and type it needs for good economic balance locally and generally, not according to any Brussels-born philosophy of 'you must make space for whoever turns up waving EU papers' including the drifters and grifters who are part of any crowd. Note, I'm not talking about refugees who are an entirely different matter from ordinary immigration and need to be dealt with separately and specially. No, the UK should decide exactly who comes in and at what rate, but the applicants should be able to come from any part of the world, not just the EU, which has been the source of the vast majority of our immigration for the last 20 years. I believe the UK should reach out around the world for hopeful applicants who have the necessary and desirable skills and experience. Most Brexiteers agree with me -- and yet we're ironically labelled 'racist' for not necessarily wanting all our immigrants to come pretty exclusively from the 97% white EU countries that Remainers do. Of course, lots of Remainers will cry "b-b-but I'm not a bigot, I didn't mean it that way, I didn't even think about it that way..." no of course they didn't think about it. They didn't switch on their brains and think about it at all. They've just spent the last three years parotting whatever shabby mainstream media source told them to believe. As for "dem wimmins needs to stay at homes becuz dare wreckin' muh economy", oh dear oh dear. Newsflash. The 19th century isn't going to make a comeback. We don't live in a 19th century economy or culture any more. Oh and if you think that women didn't work at all prior to 1990, go look at any British census page from a non-upper-class area. More than half of all the women had paid occupation -- as glovers, bakers, tanners, farmers, seamstresses, spinners, cooks, launderers, nannies, cleaners, managers, librarians, teachers, secretaries, midwifes, pieceworkers, you name it. No, it's a well known phenomenon that education, education, education is the driver behind women "getting all uppity" and wanting to be able to live independently, have their own money, and make independent decisions about what kind of lives they want to lead and who or what they want to include, or not, in it. Both parents working brings enormous benefit to their children in the form of better housing and nutrition, bought training and education (including university), lessons in the arts, and the possibility of having a small inheritance. And -- lest we forget -- it also benefits aged and tapped-out pensioner parents, who can be offered a bit of support too (ever heard of the sandwich generation? we're it.). No, women need to work for exactly the same reasons men do: avoidance of poverty, and not just the financial kind but the social and intellectual kind as well. The inevitable crash in housing value will happen simply as the result of the massive and unsupportable gap between average earning and average house prices. There are myriad reasons for the house price distortion (you've all mentioned them), but here we are. Because almost all homes are bought in the UK are via loans which are paid for from earnings - not 'given money' like inheritance or gifts - unless average salaries are suddenly going to quadruple (never), the gap will resolve by a gravitational drag on prices paid. Nothing is supporting the house values right now other than unconscionable amounts of debt, a stupid mixture of denial, hope and finger-crossing, and... thin air. That's it. Before 2016, overvalued real estate used to be called a 'return on investment'. Now overvalued real estate is called 'unsound'. Buyers are walking away because they're no longer willing to play the part of the the gullible fools that are necessary to keep this whole 'greater fool' theory and practice running this property ponzi scheme. No one wants the £150k flat above a shop disguised as a £450k 'cool modern lifestyle' residence because someone installed a new kitchen across half the living room and turned the upstairs toilet into a bedroom. Why? Because no one aspires to sitting on the edge of their bed and stirring their pasta at the same time. Because no one wants to have their washer-dryer rumbling away next to them when they're trying to get romantic on the sofa. Because emperor's new clothes and all. The onlookers are starting to giggle at the ridiculous scenario, and when that starts happening, it's all over for the red-faced courtiers and players-of-the-system. Nothing to do whatsoever with whether or not we're in the EU. Look at Australia's current property values cratering. What's causing it? Pretty much the same as what's about to tip the UK property values off a cliff.
  2. In America, you miss your mortgage payments (or any other loan secured on the property), and you are OUT. There's usually forbearance of 2-3 months, during which time they'll actually put your property on the market as a foreclosure and start walking viewers through it while you're sitting there in front of the teevee drinking your cuppa-soup. Whatever the bank gets for it, they take it as a 'short sale' and you walk away without the debt, but of course you lose your property and all the money you put towards it to date, and you have a big black mark on your credit rating. Whatever the new buyer paid for it, as a 'short sale' or 'distressed sale', becomes the new value of the property which could be half, one-third, or even one-quarter, of what the previous buyer paid for it. That's why property in America GOES DOWN as a deteriorating piece of capital -- sometimes dramatically.
  3. Merger? They cannot support their extensive high street presence off the back of a handful of sales a month and soon-to-be-loss-making rentals.
  4. It's an excellent idea. Paying rent on time and in full is the fulfillment of a payer's legal obligation (the rental agreement) and should be recognised as such when it comes to other credit/financial arrangements. Those who slack off on paying their rent quite rightly should be judged accordingly, as they would do if they slacked off on paying council tax, utility bills, loans, fees, etc (all of which form part of a person's credit profile). It matters not whether they're on housing benefit -- if the housing benefit that goes into their pockets doesn't quite make it back out of the pockets to pay the rent, of course they should have a red flag stuck in their rating. You can't let the exceptions ('what about someone who didn't get their housing benefit cheque for 6 weeks?') scrap everyone else's chances.
  5. Let’s hope the 2018-2028 version of H2B is a crash in values right across the board. THAT would help people to buy, and not just gullible broke-as-hell 20 somethings either with a governement subsidy going towards greedy developers — it’d help everyone equally. Even owner-occupiers who’d see the paper value of their house cut in half, meh, at least if they want to upgrade they don’t have to shell out an additional quarter of a million for a few extra square metres of garden lawn, which has been the case in London for 15 years. There should be no H2B other than to stop propping up prices and let them fall through the flippin floor already.
  6. Greedy BTL LL with a glorious Croydon kingdom of IO mortgaged tower block flats filled with benefit claimants — a friend-of-friend — has been in the cold sweats for ten months now. This week he attended a local ‘networking presentation’ for beginners and wanna-be entrants to the wonderful world of BTL and liars loans. Why? When he’s been in the biz 20 years? So that he can try to offload his rubbish portfolio on someone stupid enough to attend such a presentation. He just can’t get shod of them otherwise.
  7. Estate agent work should be tightly regulated. Banks don’t make up the amounts that people have to borrow — the unqualified greedy and slippery spivs known as estate agents do.
  8. The painting is a fake. I do have a background in art, art history, and dealing in art. It’s not even in the trademark compositional style of Da Vinci least of all consistent with his usual methods of production. Just because one auction house (read ‘estate agent’) with fees to make off its sale says it’s a ‘wonderful investment’ that will appreciate in years to come doesn’t make it so.
  9. It’s like telling a massively indebted gambling-addicted heroin junkie to give it all up today. They know it’s the right thing to do, but they have to keep rolling and riding because digging themselves out is too hard to face. The news gets worse. This Croydon-tower-block-centric ‘empire’ was entirely built on dodgy liars loans from a ‘specialist’ one-man-band mortgage business somewhere else in the country (don’t know the name but in the north east). Debt must be in the many millions. He’d always wedge in additional bedrooms and install a cheap crappy kitchen in the corner of the living room so he could ‘optimise’ the space and turn the old kitchen into another bedroom. The flats all take housing benefit inmates so one or two flats per year are regularly trashed — the last evicted owed about a year’s rent before he was finally tossed out. He rode this gravy train for years, the British taxpayer paying his instalments on dodgy loans for ghastly flats that no one would ever voluntarily live in. 2018 will be liquidation.
  10. Right. BTL ‘empire’ landlord friend of friend admitted to me last week that the buy to let market and buy to let ‘it’s all over, it’s died’. Some context: this is ALL he’s ever done as a so-called career. Will probably start selling in Q2 next year.
  11. Carney doesn’t see a bubble probably because he, as BOE head, doesn’t give a spit what property prices are. It’s completely outside of his remit as well as his arena of concern. His, and the Bank’s, only area of concern is whether or not a) there’s a healthy supply of cash/debt/etc available and moving around, and b ) borrowers are enabled to acquire cash and repay those debts as agreed. End of. Asking Carney if there’s a bubble isn’t like asking an oncologist if he detects cancer and if so then assuming he’s going to offer some kind of cure. It’s more akin to asking your bus driver if it’s raining.
  12. Bit of propaganda against the Independent article published 12 hours earlier which said values in London are expected to be down AGAIN and, this time, negative values are showing in previously impervious ‘always up’ boroughs such as Westminster, Hammersmith, few others. The best they could do for homeowners was to say things looked somewhat ‘less gloomy’ outside of London. Ive tried to post article on homepage news link blog. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/london-house-prices-fall-fast-rate-financial-crash-uk-housing-market-a8002431.html%3famp
  13. I hadn't visited this message board for 5-6 months, and on return last week was surprised to see A LOT of off-topic steering and thread-sliding in general. This wasn't going on 6-12 months ago. There's very obviously a property crash starting, but certain individuals who I can only think have vested interests don't want you talking about that. Every time someone makes an astute observation or presents a sharp piece of data, the topic is steered off into the trees and the thread is buried by new comments on non-HPC-related threads on the board that push HPC threads off the first page.
  14. "Property crash, ha, I'll believe it when I see it!" is, ipso facto, the fundamental criteria for losing absolutely every penny they ever thought they 'invested' in property. That's what they don't get. Their 'seeing it' means it's TOO LATE. It's all over. It's done. These are the same people who scoff at others who tell them to remove their sombrero first before pulling their jumper on over their head.
  15. I don't know the owners personally but I understand they're a late-middle aged couple whose 2 or 3 adult children flew the nest some years ago. I know at least the husband is still working full time and they've been in that house at least 20 years. I would hazard a guess they de-listed because they were fed up with EA lies -- the EAs would have begged and begged for them not to de-list (if they can't sell it, at least it can make up their 'stock figures'). They didn't say what they were going to do next. Probably curl up and lick their wounds. And get used to the idea they're no longer the millionaires-on-paper they thought they were.
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