Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


New Members
  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About ReluctantMover

  • Rank
    HPC Newbie
  1. :-) Forecast is for pretty flat sales volumes forecast, more sdlt, and more cgt. I can't see specific data in the obr forecast for sales of resi prop other than PPR. One interpretation of more sdlt from pretty flat sales volume points to a combination of higher prices / higher tax per transaction from buyers of 'second' homes. IIRC the obr said budget 2015 wouldn't have much effect on the housing market. It is certain btl sales will be brought about by c24 but isn't the obr still sticking with the line that the effect on the market overall will be minimal? Will the arrival of the first tax bill post c24 be the thing that causes most btlers to realise what it means to them? Will that prove basing it's forecasts on minimal effect to the housing market to be wrong? Or is it that the number of properties affected and (to show that a novice poster like me has paid attention) the number of landlords waiting for the gutting table is very low? The obr doesn't have a crystal ball and there is no reason that it's current forecast is accurate, but it is a big input into government / council / lender planning isn't it? How independent is it really?
  2. apologies for formatting! CGT changes expected to cost lots (£60m, £90m, £145m, £160m £170m in the next years) Income tax falls (as a result of people making gains rather than income?) to cost lots Stamp duty to make a bit over the term Net cost over the period to 2020 is £2,745 billion Resi sales to stay flat over the term
  3. http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/efo/economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2016/ And the impact of the budget is covered on the Other tab on this spreadsheet http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-supplementary-fiscal-tables-march-2016/ Of note Capital Gains Tax: reduce basic rate to 10% and main rate to 20% excluding residential property and carried interest Receipts Capital gains tax -60 -90 -145 -160 -170 Receipts Income tax -90 -590 -510 -560 -620 Receipts Stamp duty land tax 45 50 50 50 55 Total -105 -630 -605 -670 -735 Table 1.16 of the Economic and fiscal outlook supplementary economy tables - March 2016 (http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-supplementary-economy-tables-march-2016/) forecasts residential property transactions out to 2020 (in ,000s) 2016 1266 2017 1276 2018 1292 2019 1299 2020 1308 Table 2.6 of the Economic and fiscal outlook supplementary fiscal tables - March 2016 (http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/download/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-supplementary-fiscal-tables-march-2016/) shows SDLT forecast receipts 2.6 Stamp duty land tax: Receipts by sector £ billion Outturn Forecast 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 SDLT from residential property 7.5 7.1 8.6 9.7 10.5 11.4 12.2 SDLT from non-residential property 3.2 3.5 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 Annual tax on enveloped dwellings (ATED) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total SDLT1 10.9 10.7 12.9 14.2 15.2 16.3 17.4
  4. George Osborne tweets on 10 March https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/707892738042232832 "Almost half a million people helped by all our @HelptoBuy schemes - transforming generation rent into generation buy" Almost simultaneously, the @helptobuy twiiter account tweets https://twitter.com/helptobuy/status/707963953482240001 "Over 150,000 people have been helped to buy a home using Help to Buy https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/ #OwnYourHome " So, is it 'over 150,000' or is it 'almost half a million'? Or is it a case of what is 350,000 between friends?
  5. The buyer's solicitor has asked our solicitor if we are ready to complete tomorrow We are - there isn't much to do as the seller really. How has she got things done so quickly? The searches and stuff for the house we bought took way longer than this. Anyway, if she is ready to pay, we won't stand in the way. We will be calling in after work to sign the papers at our solicitor's and, if the money arrives in their client account tomorrow, that will be that I have set up a rightmove search to see if comes up as available to let
  6. It rather feels like I am on the wrong forum even Maybe I didn't join soon enough to be a member of the small 'welcome to post' club? Not to worry. I took the information offered, used it and it will be what it will be. I will head back to just lurking and looking in now and then. Sincere thanks though to those who have made this site the repository of useful information that it is, I really have learnt a lot and I hope by acting on it to have avoided a particularly slippery banana skin. I wish you all well.
  7. We were going to rent it out. That was the basis of my very first post here, to seek the alternative view on doing that. A lot of people that we know that have moved in recent years did keep the house they were moving from and rented it out. It seemed like the obvious thing to do when we moved. I regard myself as fortunate to have lurked here enough for me to be prompted to take a more careful look at some of the information here. It changed my mind and Mrs ReluctantMover's mind was changed when she read the bland unsight booklet. I now regard the paper gains made by friends and work colleagues that moved in the last few years and kept their house as being achieved by 100% good luck. I am sure that none of them knows much about prices as multiples of salary, that none of them predicted that interest rates would stay so low for so long, that none of them predicted the government would launch help to buy schemes and all the other stuff talked about here. They were lucky that house prices kept rising in the last few years, lucky that their tenants paid on time, lucky that their houses / flats rented out quickly and lucky that the boiler didn't break down. Most of them will say it isn't good luck, but that it is just common sense: house prices always go up. I have told a few people about my change of mind, that I am now going to sell the old house. I have been told that I am an idiot, that I am giving away "a pension" and that I will regret it. Based on the evidence shown in the market to date, it is easy for them to say that. But looking into the future, the information provided here made me see that even though that has been true up to now for my generation, it can't go on forever. If the artificial supports were removed, the market would fall like a stone. I don't know if the props are going to be removed, or if any more are going to be put in place by the government, but I do know that we will much happier with our old house sold, the mortgage on our new place reduced and our savings balances replenished. If we are wrong and the buyer of our old place makes a fortune in rent and future price increases, we will kick ourselves a bit and be mocked by some of the 'I told you so brigade', but the decision is ours and we are happy with it.
  8. Some of you are tough critics. You use a lot of your time to contribute to this board, making it a very valuable resource to people who lurk / stumble across it and who are prepared to dig in a bit. I learnt from the information available on this board (and the bland unsight book) that it was wrong for my wife and I to drift into being a landlord. We had three agents round to value the house for sale, one of them claimed to have a potential buyer who would complete quickly, at the recommended asking price, to avoid the stamp duty changes coming in April. That potential buyer viewed the property and, true to the agent's word(*), wants to buy it and is moving ahead quickly, with the deposit already in my solicitor's hands. As we have already moved, the house is sat empty just now, so there is no benefit to me to do anything other than accept her offer. She happens to be a buy to let landlord and she is buying the house through a limited company. Neither of which prejudices me against taking her money. As for the whiff of goat curry, well I apologise for that: we simply haven't found the best takeaways near our new house yet and last night's was a touch ropey. It did say lamb on the menu, but it was quite chewy. (*) that might come as a shock to some of you, an estate agent saying something that is true
  9. There was the Appointments Commission It started life as a specialist organisation to recruit the best possible people for senior public sector roles - many of which were NHS managers There was a plan that it would grow to take on the recruitment of senior frontline staff (senior nurses, pharmacists, etc. in the NHS) and then, perhaps, handle more and more recruitment for the public sector But it soon became apparent that it was run by fools and that it was destined to fail . Commercial recruiters ran rings round it and the processes it was using were lengthy, convoluted and ineffective. Someone involved with it said that it seemed that no one wanted to be the one that recommended a candidate in case it didn't work out - no one wanted the accountability. A good recruitment person (there are a few) earns a very low salary, even if recruiting very senior roles, and only earns decent money if they make a lot of placements. If they make only few placements, they are soon gone. The people in the Appointments Commission had massive salaries in comparison, no financial incentive to fill jobs and a very, very slow pace. The offices they were in were, by any standards, very well appointed and it was an all round gravy train. With biscuit wheels and a large dessert to follow. It was closed in October 2012. Not a moment too soon. An in house recruitment operation for the NHS, with a little bit of tweaking of the rules to make sure it had a very slight advantage over the commercial suppliers, would save many millions of pounds per year and deliver a better NHS. I know several people that have suggested such things to the NHS leadership and Sec of State, but it goes nowhere. Meanwhile, hospitals are paying 4x normal salaries to nurses and agencies are taking hundreds of pounds a week on top too. It is broken. It could be fixed. But there is no will to fix it.
  10. I almost became an "accidental" landlord (see my recent posts in the new members welcome thread) Thankfully, the good counsel of posters here made me consider the matter from the correct angle and I am in the process of selling the property They buyer is (quoting the estate agent here) "a big player in buy to let round here" My solicitor has advised me that the house is actually being bought by a newly formed limited company, of which the buyer is the sole director and shareholder. The deposit has been paid and completion is expected to be done before the stamp duty changes come into force.
  11. Two other agents round, both valued at same £195k We decided to go with Tepilo I called up the first of the other two agents to tell him no thanks and he said he had a buyer that would buy and, even though I wasn't going to instruct him to market the property, could we do a deal where he brought this buyer round before I signed with another agent and, were she to buy it, I would pay him his 1% fee. She is a 'big player in buy to let round here' and is 'on a buying spree just now.' As he said he could show the buyer round this afternoon, it didn't seem like too long to wait. She has been and looked and offered the £195k. She wants to get it done quickly due to the stamp duty changes. She is very familiar with the process and is ready to pay her deposit tomorrow. I have instructed my solicitor this afternoon on the basis that he needs to get this done in time for the stamp duty. He has spoken to the buyer's solicitor and they seem confident it can be done. I have advised the buyer, the agent and my solicitor that the deal happens at £195k or not at all. No price reductions at any stage, or I simply withdraw from the deal. We will see how it unfolds.
  12. Well, completion and moving went smoothly. Just about got the everything unpacked yesterday and this morning and I nearly know how to work the heating and hot water in the new place already! Grabbing a chance to put our feet up for an hour or two. The Tepilo valuation for our old house is less than the neighbouring property (which had the loft converted to a bedroom / bathroom, had a nice big 'orangery' extension to the kitchen built on and still has a larger garden and sold for £267k back in the Autumn) The valuation offered by Tepilo on ours is £195k. Two other agents coming to take a look at it this week and we will see if there is much variance between the three valuations and then it will be on sale. Given that when I bought the house, the graduate starting salary at my employer was £17k and that this year it has just been decided that it will be £28k, on any measure of affordability it is ridiculous. But, now I have spent a few hours reading some of the stuff here and linked from here, affordability has been ridiculous for something like 10 years now hasn't it? Would I have thought it possible that prices could rise so much faster than wages for 10 years? No. Do I think prices can rise faster than wages for another 10 years? No. But I have to think that it is possible that a few more help to buy initiatives and inter-generational mortgages could work a pincer movement to prove me wrong. We have considered that scenario and, even if that is how it plays out, and we miss out on further capital gains, it won't bother us. If it sells for anything like the Tepilo guide price, we will pay down half our mortgage, spend a bit each on frivolities and use the rest to replenish our savings that were well and truly battered by this move. Overall, we think that is a better place to be than worrying about the boiler breaking down, voids, deposit protection schemes and the rest of it, all for little or no net rental profit. I am pleased I found the time to dig in to this forum a bit more than I ever have before - it is full of interesting stuff. In a way though, I am glad I didn't dig in too much previously, otherwise it might have made me think long and hard about not moving with the market in the state it is in and moving was definitely the right thing for us at this stage of our lives.
  13. thanks "willie" and "25 year mortgage 8itch" you are clearly on the sell it side Also, input from a friend of mine has given me something to think about that really tips the scale towards selling She says that keeping the house is taking a gamble on prices increasing at a very significant pace into the future. The stake is the CGT that would arise on selling the property in the future, rather than selling it CGT free now under the PPR rules. At 3% gross rental yield, subject to 40% tax and letting agent fees, maintenance etc., the net yield is likely to be close to nil. Say 0.5% for argument's sake, though that could be optimistic How many years rental income is needed to make it worth giving up the chance to sell the house now and taking the capital gain (£220k between two of us) free of CGT? That calculation alone is quite scary. She suggested this question is the key one "Assuming that the house breaks even as a rental, do you think house prices are going to keep increasing at a rate that makes the future, taxed, capital gain more valuable than today's tax free capital gain?" If yes, keep it and rent it out If no, or not sure, sell it I think she has made it very simple for me I will be looking into tepilo tonight....
  14. LTL, popping head up for the first time to outline my scenario and seek input on our potentially becoming an "accidental" landlord I live in Leeds Lived in current house since 2001. It is a 2 bed semi with garage and was / is "a FTB" house. Back then it cost £46,250 and it was just me. I paid the mortgage off completely in 2008 There has been a Mrs ReluctantMover since 2010 (she isn't so reluctant to move, but that is another story). House has been in joint names since 2013. Next door sold in November 2015 for £267k The house we have bought (exchanged contracts yesterday, complete Friday) is £400k. We are putting down £200k deposit from our savings and have a mortgage in place for the other £200k. The question is this: What to do with the old house? We could sell it. Maybe for as much as the £267k that the one next door sold for back in November We could rent it out and I am leaning towards this just now. Appreciating that the general view here is that being a landlord is bad, I am expecting to hear the arguments against doing so here. Similar properties have been advertised for rent at between £650 and £695 recently and they are occupied now. That is only 3% gross on the potential sale proceeds. But, when I add up everything I spent to buy the house and improve it to its current standard (including mortgage interest), that comes to £99,500. If, by some convoluted maths, I calculate the yield on that figure (the actual cost) and ignore the potential capital gain that might arise from the the sale, it is a more respectable 8.4% gross. Only one house on the street is currently rented (only 14 houses in total and I am nosy) If I did rent it, I would aim to use the rental income to reduce the mortgage on the new house more quickly. In today's climate I think I prefer to hold an asset (the house) rather than have the cash in the bank(s), in case the banks go pop. Also, if I sell the house and there is that much more money sloshing about somewhere, Mrs ReluctantMover and I might be tempted to spend it on frivolous purchases, which wouldn't be ideal. So, that is where I am with it. No conclusion reached just yet, but I would like to decide what to do with it by the end of March. I am leaning towards renting it out. Can you present the facts in a way that shows the upside of selling it and / or the downside of renting it please.
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.