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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by sich

  1. Excuse my ignorance ... If the COMEX price of gold is diverging from the physical price ... what will happen to the price of bullionvault gold ? I guess its always set by the COMEX price right ? ... so if the COMEX market blows up what happens to bullionvault prices ?
  2. So as I understand it COMEX price of commodities does not represent the true value of the commodities in the real world. The difference is getting greater and greater and physical gold is harder and harder to get hold of. From information I've read, contracts can be settled in cash rather than the commodity iteself. Of course the cash spot price doesn't buy you an equivalent amount of the commodity, therfore, why would anyone want to be a buyer ? Still, financial institutions can continue to 'sell' on the COMEX without actually owning the commodity ... futher supressing the price and widening the gap between COMEX price and true price. Basically, sellers still want to sell but increasingly buyers are unwilling to trust the market. Hence the low price of gold at a time when it should be a safe haven. If COMEX is about to default ... does that mean the spot price will drop to almost zero ???? and who prices physical gold then ? Bullion vault .... worthless, unless you fly over to zurich to get it, right ?? and would you even be able to get hold of it or the COMEX spot price in cash ?
  3. RMB is pegged to a basket of currencies (they seem to change the weightings frequently too) ... its appreciated against the dollar until recently when USD started its rebound.
  4. only took me 20 years ... you see ... the trick is to click randomly, buying multiple properties at the same time, hoping for the best. ... in true BTL spirit
  5. just tell us for god's sake man ... what did she say ?????? .. such a cliff hanger!
  6. Ha .... love it ... "4 bedrooms - 3 reception rooms - 4 bathrooms - Garage - 2 parking spaces If you have other questions about this property, please telephone 0845 402 9510 (low call rate). " LOW CALL RATE !!!! like you'd give a sh*t if you had 3 mil to waste on that
  7. The interest rates are increasing because the Japanese are beginning to have an appetite to spend again. Recovering economy ?
  8. What do people think of the Japanese housing market? Its been tipped in Money Week recently and theres an LSE AIM listed security (Japanese Residential Investment Company JRIC) that looks quite interesting. Surely there cant be much downside given this market has been on its knees for some time ... extra potential for upside with the appreciating Yen. Could a global property sell-off (starting in the US and later Europe) affect Japan? Any thoughts?
  9. LL - where in docklands? - i'm renting in Canary Wharf and my Landlord has been trying to sell the property for 6 months now (silly price £370k for 2 bed flat). He recently uped it from 360k BTW
  10. Lets face it - BTL'ers in the current climate are your average joe (last dormant f**kers pilling in when the boats already sailed) - most of whom probably have no idea what SIPPS are.
  11. but surely all these job cuts increase the likelyhood of a rate cut - leading to more HPI
  12. I'm currently arguing with my flat mate (trader at DB) that interest rates are looking increasingly likely to rise while he believes there will be a cut. I know we've been through it all several times, but I'd like to compile a set of bullet points in favour of both directions .... can you add/amend anything you can think of as a factor or possibly change the order based on items that place most pressure on BoE. Interest Rate Increase: 1) Sterling v low 2) To Cool the housing market again (reported to be rising again by VIs) 3) Threat of Importing inflation from US, Europe etc 4) Rising factory gate prices Interest Rate Decrease: 1) Rising unemployment Ok - I admit i dont have very many so far
  13. Ha - its typical. I've said before that so many people are blissfully unaware of how their payments may change over time with increasing interest rates. This guy doesn't even know if he will ever 'own' his house or not - although i'm sure he's first to say it beats renting. People should be given better advice when making the largest purchase of their life.
  14. No chart in particular - just speculating on possible outcomes from claims of recent surge in HPI after the downturn over the last year.
  15. Markets that are due for a correction often trace out a couple of patterns before the fall (instead of changing direction imediately). One typical pattern is a head and shoulders whereby their is a peak ('shoulder') followed by a trough followed by a peak higher than previous one ('head') followed by another trough and another smaller peak ('shoulder'). Could this new mini boom take the average house price above the last peak ??? setting us up for a head and shoulders pattern ? Alternatively - markets sometimes show a 'double top' pattern whereby the price hits the same 'ceiling' price twice before reversing. comments from Dr. Bubb would be appreciated.
  16. If you're talking about Pan Peninsular (South Quay DLR) and the other similar tower they are building - these are supposed to be the height of luxury with private cinema and bar. They had sold them all practically in the first couple of weeks. Its 40 something storeys comparable with 1 Canada Square (aka Canary Wharf tower) Dont get me wrong - I wouldn't buy one for the silly prices they are asking
  17. Was thinking primarily for the following: 1) Carry trade coming off 2) Iranian Oil Bourse in Euro plus general devaluation of the dollar any thoughts ??? which would be best or a combination of both
  18. Thinking of a long spread bet for next next few months - thoughts ? I'm guessing short Dollar (against anything) is a good play anyway.
  19. Just heared a guy in the office say he had an Estate Agent cold call him to see if he was looking at the moment. Never heared of this before - has any one else?
  20. Funny how people are oblivious to the risks and at the same time consider themselves economics experts when regurgitating something someone told them - confident enough to risk everything on a shread of someone else's knowlege (or lack of) please please HPC - I have no sympathy - these same sorts of people at my work are arrogant simply because they own property (recently). I'm laughed at now for being the only one who 'warns' of the imminent crash. Infact ten minutes ago i had the comment 'still think theres a crash comming', with a sneer from one of them walking past my desk. She has several BTL properties that she only bought last year!!! ...I would have no problem saying the opposite to her when it finally happens - but I'm sure I would get silenced by people sympathetic to her financial losses.
  21. You're so right - ABN AMRO outsourced to EDS too - bunch of muppets. Outsourcing is like anything else, its totaly over done and then when the realisation hits that trying to get anything productive done in London by East Europe or India is not really practical - its all brought back again. Or at least will be soon. They need to get the balance right - bit like the housing market really. Outsourcing paaa - its a fad, an experiment !!! and doesen't f ing work.
  22. - housing demand is really no different now than it was 10 years ago, even with all the eastern europeans. Last I heard they were all living in the same room anyway. oh and by the way your right - house prices will continue to rise forever - go ahead you'll make a mint !!!
  23. Darwin Theory suggests that creatures evolved through 'best of breed' and survival of the fittest. These days humans dont really have any problems worrying about being eaten by predators and running is confined to the gym. However, moving forward a few years to the current day, think about how many people are blissfully unaware how quickly their financial situations can change with the very real possibility of increasing interest rates. I can't believe the number of people who simply dont understand the risks they have taken on. For the majority of first time buyers the Housing market is the only market that they have had any experience with, worse still they have only seen half a cycle. As I've said in recent posts most FTB's have only a few things on their minds when buying property: 1) The housing market only goes up (thats what I've seen and thats what my parents tell me) 2) The media keep saying 'property prices up' 3) I've no idea how much 200k is in real terms but the bank is letting me borrow all the money so it must be ok and : 4) I can afford the monthly payments so, back to my original point, when interest rates rise and some people cant afford their repayments I will have no sympathy. I only hope that bankrupcy in some way limits the ability of stupid couples to procreate and leads to a modern equivalent of Darwin Theory. Ok - its a little extreme but I dont loose sleep thinking about generations of cave men who were too slow to out-run hungry bears, the only difference, this being an intellectual challenge. Do you think it should be the responsibility of the banks to explain more clearly what the risks are when borrowing this much money - or is their own stupid fault and they deserve what they get?
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