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House Price Crash Forum


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About jan81

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  1. Read this blog over breakfast this morning and thought it was a very clear discussion of how interest rates/monetary policy drive house prices but the mainstream discussion focuses on supply and demand. Thought it might be of interest to the forum. https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/01/evidence-and-persistence-of-mistaken.html
  2. They say that the report is not about house prices, but risk to financial stability. Powers that they want are control of loan to value ratio and the interest coverage rate. "Research by the CBI finds that the share of buy-to-let borrowers in the market is positively correlated with a measure of house price overvaluation. House price overvaluation may lead to an unsustainable increase in household indebtedness by all mortgagors."
  3. Consultation opened today. Have only briefly scanned. Report includes analysis of buy to let market. Anybody in the know over what this will mean for buy to let? http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/dec/17/bank-of-england-given-powers-rein-buy-to-let-market https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/consultation-on-financial-policy-committee-powers-of-direction-in-the-buy-to-let-market/financial-policy-committee-powers-of-direction-in-the-buy-to-let-market#the-buy-to-let-market
  4. I think demography is only part of it. The type of household is also important, with more people forming smaller households now. Immigration is also a factor, both in terms of the number of immigrants vs. emigrants and that many immigrants are younger and starting families. I do wonder about European immigration though and how it will compare to previous waves of immigration. Given how cheap flights are and how easy it is to keep ties with home through the internet we might see very different patterns. Perhaps more temporary immigration with people returning to their home countries at some point? I've no evidence for this, but given freedom of movement and the relative ease of relocating in Europe I would expect the situation to be a bit more fluid than in the past.
  5. Apparently these cook much hotter and you get something far closer to authentic. I use a pizza stone as I don't have the space for one of these, but they are well reviewed. Bit cheaper to run as well, given how long you have to preheat the oven if you're using a stone. Bit off topic, but if you make your own pizza they're a good investment! Quite frugal as well, as the raw ingredients for a pizza from scratch are pretty cheap and very easy to prepare.
  6. http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/we-earn-190k-a-year-should-we-sell-a-child-so-we-can-buy-another-flat-20151120104033 The Daily Mash have their own take.
  7. If you put the headline into google and click through from the google link you can usually read the story. You sometimes have to do a very quick survey to access the article. Hope that helps.
  8. http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/nov/11/buy-to-let-mortgages-cml-lending-landlords-loans Guardian article stating that number of buy to let mortgages still at a high level, even after summer budget. Fascinating really, I would have assumed that the tax changes and general signalling that landlords were coming under increasing scrutiny would be dampening enthusiasm among new entrants. I wonder if these people have thought it through, are not planning on being highly leveraged or if they just haven't taken the changes into account.
  9. Interesting reply from the MP. Although I am being evicted because of the tax changes, I'd have to agree with his analysis on the whole. To be honest representations from BTL landlords that they need their continued tax break for social good doesn't really wash.
  10. Interesting anecdote about the casino, but I suppose any number on the wheel would have had the same chance of winning so no harm in sticking it all on a 'lucky' number. The house always rakes it in!
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