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House Price Crash Forum


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About echo3

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  1. A 3 month update; first one is still for sale at £285, but with new agents. second one is still on at £200. third one sold for £170 according to nethouseprices.com - a break even price over two years. Interestingly Halifax House price calculator says prices in East Mids went up 10.4% in this period. Given the high transaction costs of buying and selling this person obvioulsy lost money. fourth is still on the market at £185. Last one is listed as Sold STC - we'll see what it got when data hits LR. As for new house prices; This New House is £10,000 cheaper than last year on the same estate, as is This One And yet everywhere I read that house prices are still rising.
  2. nil. Also, your calculations are not taking into account the long term benefits of home ownership, and the emotional impact. You also aren't factoring in the freedom of movement offered by renting. For example, if you are renting and have noisy neighbours, or are offered a job 100 miles away, moving is much less hassle than if you own your own home - can you put a value on that? Conversely, I would imagine that 90% of the people on this site actually WANT to own their own home eventually, and would not be happy renting for the rest of their lives. In your area the maths make a compelling argument to STR. Where I live a £1000 pcm retal property would probably only cost you £250K to buy.
  3. affordability is a minefield because there is no meaningful measure of disposable income. basically if earnings/disposable income remain constant, then the average FTBr with a 25 year mortgage of £133,947 would be £242 a year worse off. A mortgage of £133,947 at 5.25% would yield the same repayments as a mortgage of £130,697 at 5.50% That is a £3,250 drop - so you could argue that this value would come off the "average" FTB price of £194,925 which is a 1.67% fall. IF only it were this simple.
  4. so it finished up 0.33% despite falling all week who's the c*ck muncher now, thick twit.
  5. FTBs normally have big mortgages, so a rate rise on its own will not benefit them, unless it triggers a fall in house prices. FTBs savings have a better chance of keeping pace with HPI. If interest rates rise further and house prices fall, they will be sitting pretty waiting for the bottom of the trough.
  6. Agreeing I think - there is no way prices would only drop by 15% if interest rates went up by 10%, they would have to drop far more.
  7. There are new propoerties for sale near me for £160K (assume you can get for £150K), and for rent for £650, about 5.2%, similar to mortgage rates. If interest rates up 10% to 15.5%! holy cow - the mortgage interest alone would be close to £2,000 - prices would have to half at least, and even then people would only buy if they had to!
  8. I think your spot on here actually - especially with fixed mortgages. Everyone needs somewhere to live. Just sit tight and you won't be in negative equity for more than a couple of years in my view.
  9. ah, my apologies - 0.77% in one day - I'm sure they'll be throwing themselves from tenth floor windows in the city.
  10. FTSE 100 is 0.2% down as I type this "reacted massively" - get over yourself. .
  11. I like the sentiment you have used here, but the analogy is a weak one. Would you ever want to play roulette? The risks never change, and there is little benefit to playing other than winning. If the OP had bought a house, he would have three years of benefit from that, enjoying his own little castle. His aspiration is to own a house, it is not your aspiration to play roulette. Good try though!
  12. some questions: 1. What is the difference between what you are paying now in rent compared to a mortgage on that property? can that be saved? or is it cheaper to buy? 2. Do you want to stay put for a while? if you want to keep your options about moving then renting may not be so bad a decision. 3. How settled are you in your job? In five years time do you expect to be on a lot more money? 4. Could the status of your relationship change in the next five years? 5. How important is "owning" your own property? why?
  13. I think this is the most misunderstood concept on this site, housing is not just a commodity, for many its an emotional attachment. couldn't agree more. I don't think GB will go to the country until 2010, and by then things will be so bad that it will take over a decade to recover. I'm not sure - I think it could be different this time. I'm not saying that there will be no market correction, but it could be over a much longer period than most people imagine. Prices in real terms have been falling in Japan for 14 years now. You have to look at the alternatives. Most new BTL investors are considering those investments as their pension fund. The stock market performance between '99 and '06 has been so uninspiring (only 4% up in 7 years?) that I'm not shocked that people look elsewhere to invest. People weren't put off investing in shares after the '87 Stock crash (24% lost off the FTSE in six days), but I think they have been by the latest '99 to '03 slump (46% lost off the FTSE in 3.6 years!). It will be a similar situation with the housing market for those viewing it as a "market", only a long period of poor performance, or regulation/taxation/rent control, will put people off.
  14. I can't fathom how the rise in costs of CDs and DVDs can be responsible for an increase in the cose of living for f**k's sake. Unless the average household buy's 30 DVDs a month its bloody meaningless. Council Tax is excluded from the calculation, not sure about childcare costs (my biggest single monthly bill!). makes me fume, this does.
  15. I think you should do some more research on historical global property values. The USA, Australia and countries with much more land space and less regulation in terms of planning than Britain still have high hpi. Given our framework and constraints you will be surprised that hpi has been lower here between '97 and '06 than in countries like Ireland and South Africa for example (where there is plenty of new build opportunities). Also, look at Japan's hpi before the current 14-year slide. In the last twelve months Denmark, Ireland, Canada, South Africa, France, Sweden, Belgium, Spain, New Zealand and Australia have all suffered higher hpi than the UK (source: The Economist). Going back to your comment above, the British people are simply responding to the economy in which they have to live. To imply that they are responsible for a global phenomenon is, to be honest, utter tosh.
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