Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

RickyD

New Members
  • Posts

    216
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by RickyD

  1. No Respite in Sight for London’s Luxury-Homes Market in 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-20/no-respite-in-sight-for-london-s-luxury-homes-market-in-2017
  2. Prices in Cambridgeshire have also increased at an extraordinary rate in recent years, which would make you think that, like London, it will be one of the places most prone to drops if there was a house price correction.
  3. Once the house prices drop more extensively throughout London (not just at the high end), one would hope they also lower in commuter towns/cities, such as Cambridge.
  4. More bearish news on London Property: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-12/christmas-joy-eludes-london-housing-as-asking-prices-plunge
  5. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-09/london-homesellers-cut-asking-prices-as-buyer-demand-cools-off
  6. I've heard good things about fundsmith, but rational investors (like Tim Hale & Lars Kroijer) would warn against funds like these, as past performance does not equate to future performance. They instead would recommend index tracking funds instead (i..e a world market tracker) - cheaper and less risky. Sure, they will make less % profits than the most successful funds, but evidence suggests that very few funds outperform the markets, so it's a much safer bet.
  7. Nice house.. but that's one crazy price.
  8. And another: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=19927
  9. Here's a thread on another forum about the 18 year cycle: https://www.propertychat.com.au/community/threads/the-18-year-real-estate-clock.10873/
  10. Precisely. There are too many influencing factors and unknowns to predict the future of UK house prices accurately. There will be a correction at some point, but to predict when and by how much is nigh on impossible.
  11. Looking at that graph, I would put 2007 at 'New Paradigm III', and 2016 at the 'Insane Money Printing' stage.
  12. This article is worth a read: http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/understanding-property-market-cycles/
  13. Thanks for the clarification. Interesting stuff.
  14. Checking the RICS website, they have this to say on property cycles: "Measured by peaks and troughs in performance, property cycles have durations ranging from 4 to 12 years, with an average of 8 years, although there are some authorities who refer to 18-year property cycles. Property cycles are usually used as a measure for commercial property, but in the UK, where the volatility of the housing market plays important factor in the economy, the peaks and troughs of the residential market are commonly referred to as boom and bust. There have been examples of boom and bust in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Following the economic downturn from 2008 onward, there are signs of economic recovery and growth in the real estate market, illustrating how the market fluctuates in a relatively short period of time." Source: http://www.rics.org/uk/knowledge/glossary/property-cycles/
  15. The 18 year cycle article you linked seems to refer to the US property market. I'm not sure if the same cycle applies to the UK market, but digging around, I found this chart which seems to imply that it does not fit the historical data for the UK.
  16. You got me! Yea my quote was pretty lame
  17. I do appreciate the link and it's always good to look at situations from every possible angle. I presume it's a model which aim's to show how we are at a certain stage within a property/land price cycle? So in a way it is predicting rises from here. To clarify my position, please consider the Forecast Illusion. Philip Tetlock, over a period of 10 years, evaluated 28,361 predictions from 284 self appointed professionals. The result in terms of accuracy was only marginally better than a random forecast generator. This applies to predictions in either direction (although predictions of doom and gloom faired worse). I haven't seen the video, but I might add that it's remarkable how charts and statistics can be fudged to support a particular theory. P.S. Apologies for the ancient quote
  18. "Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. " --Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC Chinese Poet
  19. Renting has been a lifestyle choice for me for many years. It allowed me to change jobs and move cities or countries quickly and easily. I've never stayed in one city for more than 5 years in one stretch. Now I'm older, it would be nice to have to option to buy a house and settle down.. but not at these prices! I'll wait it out.. if there's no correction within 4 years (I've been back in the UK for 1 year).. I'll most likely get itchy feet and move again.
  20. Sounds sensible to me, although that wasn't mentioned in the reply.
  21. A while ago I emailed the Prime Minister, telling her how alarmed I was at how foreign buyers were pushing up UK house prices are pricing out our own citizens. I asked if our Government would consider applying higher tax rates on foreign buyers and referenced the 15% tax on foreign buyers in Vancouver and Singapore. The response was pretty much as you would expect. There was the cursory mention of measures to help first time buyers (Starter Homes, Help to Buy, etc.). Then there was the mention of how non-residents already contribute to the tax system through Stamp Duty Tax, Council Tax and potentially Capital Gains Tax. The most interesting part of the email for me was the mention that due to EU law on free movement of capital, they believe there would be legal difficulties in treating residents and non-residents differently, for example, charging a higher rate of tax or restricting purchases. If this is in fact true, then in hindsight I would most certainly have voted to leave the EU (I didn't) ! It would be interesting to look deeper into whether there are currently any countries within the EU that do charge higher tax rates on foreign buyers, and if so, how they get around these rules.
  22. I'm English and I still haven't got over the shock of what you get for your money here!
  23. Does this look like good value to anyone here? http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-57155305.html Add in stamp duty, fees, etc. you're paying well over half a million pounds for a 2 bedroom flat. Tenure: Leasehold (113 years remaining) with a 25% share of the freehold. Annual service charge of £1195.20.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information