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House Price Crash Forum

Joe Blogs

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  1. The reason fish and chips are up for sale and have been closing for years is that they are simply out of fashion with the public. There is loads of choice in fast food whereas 30 years ago there wasn't. The quality in my experience is often not very good which has quickened their decline. It's also has an image problem as being a bit old fashioned / boring. The restuarant / take away market has moved on, unfortunately many fish and chips owners haven't - they kept serving poor quality food to a consumer who's wants variety. Simple economics 101, nothing more nothing less.
  2. Fair point about the sdlt for house below 125k going up for buy to let. There could well be an increase in btl purchases between now and April to avoid the new tax
  3. Venger, I am not saying hpi is neither good nor bad. What I am saying is that if you look at all the Macao side indicators of the economy then prices in many part of the Midlands and north look cheap compared to other parts of the country and could well move upwards. A couple on £2700 net a month will be easily able to afford to buy in 2020 at current northern prices.
  4. Are you really saying that there are no private rental houses in the north because of too much social housing makes it unprofitable? By 2020 a working couple on minimum wage will be on £2700 net a month, on this level of income more will be able to afford to buy a house and a buy a house is what they will do. The government wants you to buy a house and is bringing in policies that help this, without bringing about a crash in prices. Large parts of the north and Midlands have not moved in price since 2006/7, the changes coming in will upwards for prices in my opinion.
  5. There is a boom in house prices coming to large parts of the north and Midlands and here's why: - rise in living wage to £9 per hour - rise in tax free allowance to £12500 by 2020 - no stamp duty below £125k - creation of northern power house will strengthen northern economy - no changes to tax credits - southern landlords will move money north as no stamp duty below £125k - low interest rate environment By 2020 prices in the north could well be booming, if you can afford to buy now, then do so now, waiting will cost you more. Obborne will probably go down as one of the best chancellors in a generation.
  6. By 2020 a couple working full time will be bringing home a net £2800 a month. With this level of income and low interest rates it will be cheaper to buy then rent in much of the midlands and the North - and that's exactly what people will do, with an increase in prices to follow. There's a boom coming especially at the bottom end of the marke as there will not be enough supply to meet the demand. The government wants more people to buy and maintain and increase prices at the same time, this is happening now and looks set to increase in the years to come. Sure it's a Ponzi scheme but I don't see anything to bring about a crash in prices.
  7. Weekend observations from my home town: (Chesterfield) - Thai restaurant in town, busy sat night despite the fact that the food is expensive and okay at best - Pubs today's looked pretty busy outside with people drinking - Went to IKEA nottingham this morning, absolutely rammed with people shopping, always an indicator that people are confident in housing / home improvements. - New bmws, audis, merc very common. - Aldi and even Tesco busy as hell. - Plenty of sold boards up, - until recently it has been a very slow market. The only negative I can see is that some retail shops are empty / struggling - this is more to do with changing retail habits (online shopping) than the level of demand in the economy. Despite the fact that wages are low the economy looks like 2005 all over again. My prediction is that there is a house price boom coming to those areas of the midlands and the North that have not moved in price for years. By 2020 when the minimum wage gets to £9 per hour, houses in these areas will start to look cheap in comparison to renting and prices will rise. My advice to all those sitting on the fence as to whether to buy or not is as follows. If you can afford the payments now for a mortgage and are happy with the the house and location then buy now - prices will be higher by 2020. All government polices are geared to keeping the Ponzi scheme going and ensuring that there is no collapse in prices. If you are holding out for big house price falls, I just can't see it, there is too much money chasing too few houses.
  8. Kiwi Just done a quick search, there are over 200 houses for sale between 60-70k, within 1/2 mile of Rotherham. Assume a deposit of £7k (maybe be less with all the government htb scheme) and you are looking at a mortgage of no more than £300 per month to buy a property in this range. People are already buying these houses even into day's low wage economy, come 2020 when the minimum wage goes up to £9 per hour then you will have far more people chasing houses at the lower end of the market. Simple supply and demand - if more people, are able to buy and the supply does not increase then the price will go up. The government wants people to buy houses, as it locks them into the great Ponzi scheme, it is doing everything it can to get more people to buy. I see no house price crash coming at all in the midlands and the North. My advice is if you can afford the re payments now and have found a house you like, then buy instead of paying rent to someone else.
  9. G and T, if all working couples are bringing home a net £2800 a month now with tax credits, then yes you are correct there will be no increase in disposable income. I for one do not believe this to be the case and I stand by my argument that real disposable income will rise significantly for the low paid, which is a good thing. I myself am on £7.90 an hour, so will benefit from the £9 per hour. I am not suggesting that £9 per hour is a great wage because it's not, but what I am saying is that with £2800 coming in each a month, the opportunity to buy will be open to many many more people than is the case at at present. Yes they may have to save for 2 years, but the buying a house in be cheaper than renting in many of these areas. We all know the government wants more people to buy - the raising of the minimum wage will enable more people to buy and will raise living standards for many people which is a good thing. As to what effects the minimum wage increase will have on rents I am not sure. I suspect that in the midlands and North rents will be static / fall as more people can afford to buy. In the south I expect rents may go up a little as landlords look to get some of this increase in their pockets.
  10. ....and specifically this boom will be in the midlands and the North. Okay so here's my theory relating to why there will be a new boom in 2020, mainly in those areas that have cheaper housing and have not moved in price over recent years (much of the Midlands, North West, Yorkshire and the North East) If the government manages to get the minimum wage up to £9 per hour for the over 25s by 2020, there will be a big jump in people's disposable income, which has been massively underestimated as to what affect it will have on the economy. This extra income will get pumped into the market specifically at the bottom end which will cause a new mini boom and have an upwards lift on all prices. Here's the maths: A couple earning the new minimum / living wage will be on gross £37440 (assuming 40 hour week) The tax free allowance will be £12500 x 2 = £25000 Take of a 30% in taxation on the rest = £8708 Net monthly income for a couple is now around £2800 Say allow £300 food, £250 car payment, £100 fuel, £500 rent, £250 bills, council tax £100, £600 misc, means £700 left over Over 12 - 18 months they could easily save 10-15k for a deposit and and be in a position to buy easily at £100k plus. In all of the above areas there are plenty of areas where you can still buy terraces, semis for 70-120k etc, as such these properties will start to look cheap in terms of monthly mortgage payments Banks will be throwing money at these people to borrow and I am quite sure borrow they will. All this will feed into a boom in prices in the areas I have mentioned. There must be millions of people on wages below £9 now and the market shows no sign of collapse in prices. Once they get £9 per hour I can only see prices going up. The Government / banks want everyone to buy to keep the Ponzi scheme going - the new minimum wage could well have a massive effect which people have not yet fully understood. They may well have to raise interest rates just to control prices. My advice if you are in apposition to buy in these areas now then I would seriously consider buying sooner rather than later. Once all this new money comes into the economy I can only see prices going one way. I am sure many people will disagree with the above and I could well be wrong, but just looking at the new level of disposable income that people will have means that millions more will be in a position to buy. Alternative / counter opinions welcome.
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