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Tapori

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Posts posted by Tapori

  1. "Their kids will see it as ridiculously old and fogey to be scared of debt and sooner or later they'll find their Magic Money Token. It could be a flower bulb (I know of six flower bulb bubbles in history) or maybe flying cars or AI chips, but there will be one, and the credit cycle will be complete. The only real certainty is that it won't be housing. The token always changes."

     

    Prophetic

  2. 5 hours ago, Roman Roady said:

    Awesome post, I remember it well (I've bumped it enough times).

    If anyone reading this hasnt read it, I recommend that situation be resolved asap.

    As for not all predictions coming true, TBF the poster did include the following text:- "Now of course a normal credit bust would take 16-18 years to play out, though history's largest may take a litte longer. We can't expect this sort of mayhem every day for 18 years. There will be days, weeks,months, even years when things seem to be getting back to "normal", only to fall off a cliff again and catch out the unwary."

    Also we have the lines that are rather pertinent as of this week:-

    "Another firm rule is that the more debt involved, the more people involved and the longer the bubble goes on, the worse the denoument will be. Remember the old saw:

    If you owe the bank a million Dollars, you're in trouble, but

    I you owe the bank a billion Dollars then your bank is in trouble?

    Well, we've just invented a third line:

    If you owe the bank a trillion Dollars, we're ALL in trouble."

    Thanks. Incredible post

  3. On 16/03/2023 at 22:34, Aidan Ap Word said:

    FTFY

    Wealden Council has just announced that council tax charges on empty homes will be 100% from 1 April 2023. And if left empty for  > 1 year the charge goes to 200% of the council tax bill, and if left empty for greater than 5 years (granted this is extremely unlikely!) the council tax bill goes to 300% of that band's charges. And this - apparently (though yet to be proven) - includes homes that have been empty prior to April 1 2023 ...

    So those 6 probate homes that have been in myquery results in the East Susex region I have been tracking for > 10 months are all going to be circa 400 GBP per month in the red just because they haven't sold yet. I wonder how many families of the deceased who have been holding out for "the price they want" have noticed ... I am guessing not a lot (unless they live in the Wealden Council area). But this equates to 0.1% off the monthly price rises just to stay even (most probate 3 bed semis in the list at circa 400k) ... or - to put it more accurately i suspect ... (effectively) adds a 0.1% drop every month to the funds they would "achieve" given that the person's estate is sinking further and further (accring this bill just because it includes the property).

    oooh.gif

  4. 2 hours ago, Twenty Something said:

    Yes, in London I know this; the real forced sellers will emerge this year. The idea that people will not begin to cash in once they see prices fall this summer is very optimistic. Just you watch...

     

     

    BUT BUT THERE AREN'T ENOUGH DESPERATE SELLERS TO MOVE PRICES DOWNWARDS AT THE MARGINS...

     

     

  5. 4 hours ago, PalmerEldritch said:

    You are the gift that keeps on giving.

    There will always be someone else on the street that has to move and just gets the fact that the market has changed. When these idiots finally re-list their properties it will be at a lower price point and they will then have to entertain below asking offers at the new lower price.

    Enjoy watching your Z3 investment drop!!!

    BUT I'LL JUST PUT UP THE RENT INNIT

  6. 4 hours ago, Stjames83 said:

    That’s the point though, there aren’t enough forced sellers for your fantasy to come true. Homeowners are simply holding the stock until a better price is achieved. Capitalism 101.

    When would you regard there to be enough forced sellers to change your opinion?

     

    And as to the bolded point; how many people can keep paying the debt on a house with increased rates and for how long in order to "Hold stock."

    Essentially: What makes you think - and how many as a percentage of current sellers  this year, can keep holding our for a "Better market price," if they continually have to service increasing rates per month of their mortgage debt?

     

    A wise poster reminded many on here that prices move via the margins. 

     

     

  7. On 04/03/2023 at 17:42, Roman Roady said:

    and Pakistan is on the brink...circa 100M people in a not entirely benign part of the world....and it has nukes.

    Pakistan is Pakistan. They'll survive somehow. Watch the Army.

    On ground conditions are horrific if you don't have money, connections or power.

    If you have any of the latter 3 then literally Pakistan is incredibly nice.

    The middle-class have now seen their entire incomes and lifestyles decimated by insane political and economic decisions by the reverse avengers of 2 of the most corrupt political parties aligning together. Their wealth stashed away here in our Isles of Money.

  8. On 03/03/2023 at 20:38, TheResponsibleHouseBuyer said:

    I can bet my two pence (probably more if i had some ££ in my bank account) that the farmers get none of a share of it...... Yet we consumers keep paying more for these products.

    Yep, Nope it won't go the farmers and why would they? Who represents the farmers and who represents the corporates?

    You'll note that in India a year or so ago, irrespective of the fiery binary media commentary found there, the Farmers struck back when their - some would say archaic and restrictive farming price controls; i would say sensible provisions for farmer sustenance - were being opened up to essentially agglomeration of corporate tentacles, the Farmers literally fought back for a year and were decried largely in the pro-government/corporate press as terrorists.

     

    This is always the issue philosophically speaking when discussing anywhere approaching an interesting discussion on economics and politics and society.

    Anyone that critiques with great validity such rampant corruption of the type described with rampant profits under a mantra of free markets and lax regulation and lack of accountability of markets and for whom and what they serve, is met with a significant invective of:

    You don't know economics

    You want communism

    You just don't understand pragmatism and the real world

    We just need more de-regulation. What are you Stalin + Mao?

    Rinse and repeat. I've said it before and I'll say it again; if we as a species cannot find a better way of organising a basic meritocratic bartering system with a balance of justice, collective rights and individualism with freedom and responsibility  given all of this technological development, then we might as well give up.

     

     

  9. On 23/02/2023 at 10:56, TerryBoi said:

    “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” 

    - Andrew Mellon.

    🤣

    https://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/01/opinion/01krugman.html

    • March 31, 2011
    • Give this article
    • 385
    •  

    “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.” That, according to Herbert Hoover, was the advice he received from Andrew Mellon, the Treasury secretary, as America plunged into depression. To be fair, there’s some question about whether Mellon actually said that; all we have is Hoover’s version, written many years later.

    But one thing is clear: Mellon-style liquidationism is now the official doctrine of the G.O.P.

     

  10. 5 hours ago, TerryBoi said:

    Fed futures market telling us Nov 2023 @ 5.25%.

    This just developed over the last few couple of days.

    Its a huge move. Generally does not move this fast unless people are starting to get nervous.

    Large parts of the US economy are built on TINA (their is no alternative to stocks).

    5.25% means there is a very good alternative now to stocks; just stick it in T-Bills and sleep at nite.

    The only drawback to this?

    US insolvency.

    83299499_fedfunds.jpg.ca1f38ddc25e11524839b59333dfe613.jpg

    Could anyone explain for a layman why exactly and the strategy behind FED raising rates so much? To boost their currency?

  11. 3 hours ago, PalmerEldritch said:

    Which really makes you wonder what Starmer has to offer.

    If he taxes the middle more he immediately loses but if he doesn’t deliver to the poor he doesn’t deliver. There’s simply not enough cash from the private sector and high earners to make any difference.

    Oh really? Are we just going to ignore the offshore tax havens under our jurisdiction, the 700 billion printed that went to the already asset rich and the obscene price gouging profits from mates rates corporate sectors.

    In b4 "But capital flight!!!." to which I would add it's interesting that this ruse implies capital and it's owners can go on strike and should be catered for but workers striking is a re-run somehow of "The Sick Man of Europe," critique of employee organisational power..

    -

    Starmer has culturally dicey balances between centre right and liberal left cultural issues, soggy middle economics and a complete and utter lack of any Attlee-esque new settlement for ordinary people. 

    More focus groups, more PR, more excuses of "but we need to do shoddy X policy to get elected" and repeat ad-infinitum whilst the interlocutors get cushy jobs, influence and laws for their interests.

    The sensible thing would be to actually build good quality housing and long-term stake on the housing cost burden with sustainable plans and unleash the spending power of consumer capitalism if the centre is what they wish to save.

    But such is the ingrained obtuse nature of SpADS, advisors and political strategists hovering for their next CV building role, they'll toe the line to get elected (with small c Conservative hot topics) and essentially be a fluffy version of centre right liberal orthodoxy economically. Expect Blanchflower and his proteges to try more hilarious manoeuvres all under the ever watchful eye of Peter Mandelson and the New Labour crew.

     

    TLDR: We have plenty of money. It will never be spent properly and the corruption and poor strategic plans will continue as key personnel swell their coffers at the expense of us all.

     

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