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ntmr

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About ntmr

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    HPC Newbie
  1. Ouch! Newbie got his second bloody nose of the day because he was trying too hard to compensate for the first one. Thanks for the lesson. You are obviously right. It was out-of-order and insulting for me to try to speak for Confusion of VIs. I owe him a second apology and he would be right to refuse this one. If I am lucky, he will be more upset with you at the moment so I could perhaps escape this one. Initiation sure is though around here. I was unprepared. I will reflect a bit and come back if/when I think I have something really worthwhile to share.
  2. First sorry for the offense, you challenged confusion of VIs to answer bland unsight question so I wrongly assumed you were taking this side. Venger, bland unsight, please feel free to strike me down as well if I am missing the point you were making. Second, you seem to imply that someone has claimed the state is all powerful to decide whether there is or not a HPC and you go on saying the the state cannot prevent an HPC. Fair enough but as I understand it, the whole point of the argument is about whether the state wants a HPC now and is actively trying to trigger it in a slow controlled way.
  3. If I read confusion of VIs correctly, what he is answering is: 1) A HPC will spread to the global economy because landlords will sell. Everyone will suffer so Osborne is toast. They are waiting for us there as well. 2) The economy works with the BTL credit. The budget assumes this will continue (citation needed). If there is a HPC you end up back to 1) because the economy is toast. I think the rest of the post is outside the scope
  4. "Can you answer a simple question Confusion of VIs?" The question was "Why an HPC would cost Osborne the 2020 elections" The simple answer is: because people don't want their house prices to fall. It makes them feel bad. And now the trap is laid and they close it on me. I understand now why I am struggling so much to follow. There is no logical progression in the exchange....
  5. Allow me temporarilly to take the middle ground. I see Neverwhere, Bland unsight and Venger almost making the outrageous claim that Osborne and Carney would actively welcome a HPC or, at the very least, a serious decimation of the individual BTL sector. I may be a bit thick but I haven't seen anyone take them up on that with facts. If you want an argument there, surely you need to argue that blowing BTL up will cost Osborne the next elections or will trash the economy? Alternatively, you can also try to take the line that it is not worth their trouble and they haven't much to gain there. There is another argument mingled in all that which argues whether the last budget, as it is, will or will not have an impact. Obviously this is related but that needs different arguments. I don't remember anyone explaining why the treasury said it would affect 1/5th of individual BTLers. Is everyone accepting this number in the first place?
  6. Apologies but I am going after the straw man. "I have met a few landlords who are very highly educated and decent in fact and I have been lucky to have them as a landlord when I have needed to rent." You have been lucky to have them as landlords. End of. I have met more landlords that you did. The "scum landlord" stereotype is more frequent than the "renter from hell". Much more frequent. Add to the mix the slimy estate agents they are using always trying to leach more money from you and you have a good picture of the current state of the rental market. Times have changed. The new over-leveraged breed of landlords that has no clue about their legal obligations is by far the worst. This is my anger. No jealousy. Don't mind paying their mortage as long as I am treated with the dignity a human being deserves. Also, I can afford to buy a property, I just chose not to for the moment.
  7. Oh my! Oh my! I am not even sure I was teasing. I was just trying to be funny and express that Confusion of VIs was about to go into BTL. Please forgive me for causing offenses. I take your point about not adding anything useful to the forum. For what it is worth, I believe his starting point: "I am not sure the changes will have as much impact as most people on here think" and I hope I will be proved wrong.
  8. Oh my god! You are right! I thought he already understood the concept "money is debt" but he may not be all that bright. He may really have meant money as in money in my pocket. More homework for you ruggerlad!!!
  9. Welcome to the forum! You need to up your game a bit to engage into constructive discourse here. Please consider the following sentence: "There may be a housing crisis but there is no housing shortage". Get informed and come back with arguments to defend your point. Hint: there is a search function in this forum.
  10. Congratulations, Confusion of VIS has just gained a level! New stats: Charisma: 10 -> 4 Credibility: 1 -> -3 Vested interest: 5 -> 15 Eating babies: 1 -> 2 Intelligence 10 -> 10 Double agent 8 -> 12 BTL portfolio LTV: 75% -> 90% HMRC alert factor 5 -> 8 Confusion of VIs has aquired the skill: "Pal of Fergus" Confusion of VIs is now known as: (confused*) VI The (confused*) status will be removed when he finds his way to the appropriate landlord forum. Considering his current int stats he may escape Property118 and end up in LandlordZone.
  11. The bureaucratic machine, whatever it is, said it will affect 1 in 5 individual landlords. It also said: Maybe George is having a laugh and their projections are based on HMRC stats thus completely ignoring the landlords that are not filling a tax return. Maybe the "offsetting impact of wider budget measures" is refering to the fact that the rents will be held down by an increase in the number of lodgers and benefit cuts. In any cases they seem to have done their homework and they talked to real landlords. The squeals at property118 are coming from the over-leveraged "moarons", it is a sub-species. We should preserve their most magnificent sayings and always remember them. They are going extinct.
  12. Just to steer this thread a bit more on topic I thought it might be worth adding the links to the actual BOE publications: BOE Financial stability report (UK housing market section) and the meeting where this all comes from: Records of the Financial Policy Committee meeting Here is my summary, trying to be objective: UK household debt remains high relative to income. No change since last year but falling since 2009. Direct risk to the banking system and indirect risk to the economy. Mortgage at high loan-to-income on the rise but not seen as an imminent threat. The committee continues to monitor..blablabla.. Slow down in the housing market and mortgage approvals in 2014. Many factors: MMR introduced by the FInancial Conduct Authority, weakness in the supply of existing homes to the market and weaker sentiment and house price expectations Threat of renewed momentum. Forward-looking indicators indicate a risk the housing market may start to overheat again. BTL is singled-out: Lending for buy-to-let has continued to expand (now 15% of all mortgages). More competition between lenders. 50% more products at LTV >=80% Looser lending standard in the BTL sector could contribute to HPI. BTL has not been affected by the lending restrictions in the OO sector. Recent regulations have been asymmetric and risks to the OO sector could transfer to the BTL sector. Investors selling in a falling illiquid market could amplify falls potentially raising losses given default to all mortgages BTL very vulnerable to rate rises because mortgages are more likely to be interest-only and variable-rate Reading this report I can find another reason why Mr Osborne may have taken a shot at the BTL sector in the last budget. In the middle of all their weasel words, the BOE basically said there could be a BTL bubble in formation and he may have thought it was safer to blow it up right at the beginning. It felt urgent enough that he could not even wait for the BOE to start using the tools he is about to give them.
  13. I know it is hard to believe because each time I read her posts I feel more like I am watching the Apprentice but there you have it... She was happy to compare certificates with members of HPC (sic). This is the equivalent of comparing d*** size for someone that has a PhD. A sure sign.
  14. I posted in another thread. PhD in criminology. All that education wasted to exclusively become a landlord (sigh)
  15. It is very surprising that you should start such a topic just after this one: "Wellesley & Co: A New Way to Invest in Property". Are you trying to tell us something? Do you want to confess? I, for one, will be missing your inquisitive posts should you join the enemy. More seriously, I have a bit of money in a share ISA. If you don't know what you are doing you are probably better off leaving it to the so-called "experts" and invest in funds or, what I do, buy a few diversified low-cost trackers and or ETFs. It is more about minimising the costs rather than making a killer return. Each time I tried to be clever I made less money than I should have and lost against the market average. I cannot comment on the learning either, in case it was not already obvious I did not do enough of it. A few here may jump on me for this but I think a trader is about as useful and productive as a landlord for society so it would be a bit hypocritical for me to try to make a lot of money out of it.
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