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Ohmyword

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About Ohmyword

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  1. Well, RoS says that average residential prices were up 3.6% in 2015, so who knows. www.ros.gov.uk/property-data/property-statistics/calendar-year-reports I'm not clear how the City of Edinburgh Property market can be said, as the report claims, to be "bringing in over £2.8 billion to the Scottish Economy" (total residential sales in the Capital were that amount). If anything I would have thought that that sum or a portion of it was being taken OUT of the Scottish economy, as people devote ever more of their resources to property instead of more useful things, but what do I know?
  2. According to the ONS average house prices in Scotland are down -0.2% in 2015. That compares to rises of 7.4% in England (which itself, of course, masks a divide between London and the SE and the rest of England) and 1% in Wales and 1.5% in NI. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35586056 The Scottish figure will, of course, itself contain considerable regional variations. The Registers of Scotland 2015 calendar year report is due out soon which should give more information.
  3. Sounds nice. Sadly I work in Edinburgh (Leith specifically) as does my wife so it's not an option for me. I wouldn't want to spend 3 hours a day in a car commuting, no matter how cheap the house, even if there was a solution to the logistics of getting back in time to collect two kids from nursery/school. I guess we all make our choices.
  4. I don't know Kincardine and it may be a picturesque, lovely place (although at those prices I doubt it), but even if it is, it's a pretty brutal commute (at least in Scottish terms) from Kincardine into the main cities of Glasgow and Edinburgh where the bulk of the jobs are. You can at least double if not triple the travel times you quote for getting into either centre at rush hour. I accept the basic point that I think you are making - that there are plenty of bits of the UK where cheap housing still exists - but there is a reason why they are cheap, which is that not many people really want to live there. In any UK area that is popular, prices are universally crazy.
  5. It seems to have been announced with a whimper rather than a bang, but I see that the Scottish Government launched a fresh Help to Buy scheme on 21 January 2016. www.gov.scot/Topics/Built-Environment/Housing/BuyingSelling/help-to-buy No proper details yet but it looks as if the scheme will be much less generous than the equivalent scheme in E&W, as the Scottish Government is only offering to contribute up to 15% of the purchase price (compared to 20% in E&W and 40% in London) and, crucially, prices of eligible homes, which must be new builds, are capped at £230k in 2016/17 (compared to I think £600k in E&W), with the Scottish cap reducing further to a paltry £200k in 2017/18 and a meagre £175k in 2018/19. Can't buy much in the way of a family home for £230k in Edinburgh these days, sadly, so the scheme won't help me (unless there's a house price crash of course) but it may have an inflationary effect on prices in more "affordable" areas. The talk in the press release is of helping 5000 households buy in 2016/17 alone. That's 5000 households who can now afford to offer 15% more than they could before.
  6. Ohmyword

    Edinbugh Latest

    On reflection, I wonder if the increases in Dalmeny and South Queensferry can be explained by new builds coming on stream out that way, for which one pays the usual 1st owner new build premium. Prices of those would be above the value of existing older 3 bed houses in the area, significantly raising average values if the new builds hadn't been built the previous year. As such it wouldn't really be that prices had risen by 20% on the back of increased demand, but rather that a change in the nature of the housing stock available in the area had altered average prices.
  7. Ohmyword

    Edinbugh Latest

    ESPC December 2015 House Price Report claiming big rises in average values of one bed flats in Polwarth, Shandon and Tollcross. Up over 27% year on year (i.e. up over £30k). 2 bed flats in Leith, The Shore and Granton up 19% annually. Last hurrah of the diehard BTLers getting in before the 3% additional home uplift in LBTT? 3 bed houses in Dalmeny and South Queensferry also up 20%, though, which is presumably less likely to be BTL. Desperate young families fleeing the city in search of better (if rather dubious) value, perhaps? Average prices overall up 7.1% year on year (comparing 3 month periods Oct to Dec) for City of Edinburgh - £211k to £226k.
  8. I have to say that, buoyed by all the financial negativity in the mainstream media these last few days, this BBC piece "Whose afraid of the big bad rate rise?" (spoiler - very few people according to the piece) depressed me again. www.bbc/co.uk/news/business-35293442 "Only 30% of people (and over half of owner-occupier households) have a mortgage at all." "Only 1% are paying 40% or more of their gross income on a mortgage." "90% of mortgage holders pay less than a fifth of their gross income on mortgage payments." Its easy to assume, particularly reading this forum, that there are lots of people struggling like me to afford to buy anything that wouldn't consume a huge percentage of my income (I reckon I'd need to commit 50% of my net salary to get anything half decent in Edinburgh, if a bank would even lend me that, which they wouldn't post-MMR). However, I suppose the reality is that most existing OO's have a decent amount of equity in their properties and are mostly on cushy deals reserved for low LTV borrowers. (Incidentally 40% or more of GROSS income on a mortgage is insane in my book, even if it is only 1% of borrowers.) It does make me wonder if interest-rate rises, if we get any at all over the next year or two, will affect prices. Precious few FTBs can afford to enter the market at current prices with post-MMR permitted loan to income ratios, but if FTBs only make up a tiny percentage of the market, could it be many years before the drought of FTBs crashes prices? Or does a lack of FTBs just mean that no-one can trade up, seizing up the market without necessarily crashing it?
  9. Suitably cataclysmic words from RBS. "Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall exit doors are small." "This looks very much like 2008". As a black-hearted pessimist with no stock market investments who just wants house prices to fall to a more reasonable level, that instinctively sounds good, but is it? Can someone explain to an idiot like me how a collapse in equities might impact upon UK house prices? If markets and the economy tank, won't that mean that interest rates will stay lower for longer, and credit remain "easy", supporting house prices?
  10. Not sure if this was posted elsewhere but the BBC were also quite downbeat on prospects for house prices in a piece on 8 Jan: What will happen to the property market in 2016? www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35135639 Is sentiment finally turning in the mainstream media?
  11. Warning bells should surely be ringing when you see the following headlines on the same page of BBC News Business Page: "UK faces "cocktail" of economic risks" "UK House Prices "rose 9.5%" in 2015" "UK new car sales "at all time record""
  12. I noticed that in the latest piece of propaganda by the National Association of Estate Agents that house prices are predicted to rise 50% by 2025 but rents only 27% over the same period.
  13. Yes, that's right. In E&W 2% stamp duty kicks in at £125k - £250k. In Scotland 2% LBTT kicks in slightly higher at £145 - £250k. Below those levels it is 0% in both jurisdictions. For BTL, however, you pay 3% LBTT on £0 - £145k, 5% on £145k - £250k, and the rates described above thereafter. What I find interesting is that the threshold at which the tax bill starts to ramp up exponentially is much lower in Scotland, although that of course reflects lower property prices in Scotland generally. If you are buying a £750,000 additional property, the LBTT bill will by my calculations be £68,750! Presumably this will cool the market for all homes in Scotland after April 2016, but particularly pricier homes above, say £325k, by taking some potential BTL purchasers out of the equation, meaning less competition among buyers for such homes. What it will do to rents is hard to say. In theory it could eventually lead to rises as fewer BTLers enter the pricier end of the market and the supply of homes to rent reduces, but I doubt the effect will be significant. I also doubt that the market can bear significant rent rises anyway.
  14. Or rather, 13% on anything above £325k and 15% on anything above £750k. Apologies. In somewhere like Edinburgh £325k is not a particularly high threshold, although of course you only pay the higher rates on the potion of the purchase price above £325k.
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