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House Price Crash Forum

_CC_

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About _CC_

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  1. I'd be interested to hear people's views on where they think property prices will be in three years time, and why. To keep it comparable I'm looking for your forecast on changes to the average property price in England and Wales, in nominal terms. Be interesting to also hear peoples opinions on regional differences. My forecast I think the average property price will unfortunately be somewhere around 10% higher. London looks susceptible to falls, and I can see oversea buyers drying up I can see demand remaining high outside of London, with a small increase to borrowing costs putting a dampener on too much inflation
  2. 1 in 3 listings on...? Rightmove? Or somewhere else? Maybe you've just uncovered the shocking fact that EAs often initially try their luck, as well as entice sellers with over-inflated valuations. I'd be more interested in hard data - volume, sales etc. So, I ask again, where is this crash meant to be? Funny how you call me a troll for just asking you to explain something which I've seen nothing to support. I am genuinely interested in what you have seen to suggest it, afterall that's what this site is meant to be about, right? So, to answer your thread - it probably doesn't feel like a crash as there isn't one at present. Central London looks bubbly and vulnerable, and no doubt if there were further falls there it will have a ripple effect. Outside of London I'm not so sure, as I would think affordability is more in the driving seat, unless we begin to see an economic downtown (at a time when the central banks have little left to unleash) which is very possible.
  3. Where's this crash meant to be? I see some central London boroughs have seen reductions, but these are the areas with high end property which will have been affected by the changes to CGT and probably reduced demand from rich individuals due to commodity deflation, and more recently the Chinese correction / slowdown - which could indicate they'll fall further. Outside of central London I haven't seen anything which points at there being a crash? Anecdotally (I'm primarily based in the NW), things picked up a lot in 2014 - more houses on the market and notably higher in price. They were getting sold pretty quickily; with some appearing to fall through as they came back on, but only later to be sold. Since then there has been a further gradual uptick in prices, but seems to be less properties listed (I'm assuming in 2014 it was a pent up of people selling as they saw higher prices being achieved).
  4. Probably until there's an economic downturn or something notably changes with monetary policy. For much of the UK, mortgages are very affordable, despite the high prices. This will remain so even with a modest and gradual uptick in borrowing costs. If I was forced to put money on it I would say prices (as a whole) will continue to raise over the medium term, albeit more gradually, as we see some very small increments to the base rate. But, when you have high prices being supported by low rates it's quite a perilous poisition. Trying to forecast it is a fools game.
  5. Interestingly, according to the study it's not just house equity which doesn't contribute to happiness, but also pension wealth. May indicate that the happiness provided by the likes of cash and equities is from being able to instantly view their intrinsic value and the safety in knowing you can access it. Afterall, most peoples pensions are also made up of equities and the like. It would be interesting to know if it differs depending on outlook; maybe people who routinely display delayed gratification may find more happiness in pension wealth than others.
  6. No, you may not be willing to sell at the current market price. If you weren't willing to sell at all you wouldn't be in the market as you have nothing to sell. What a plonker.
  7. You're simply a moron lol You're confusing two different issues. There is a market for bonds. If you spook the market and they sell it doesn't provide a greater supply for a central bank to buy - they could have bought all of those same bonds, before the market was spooked, at a higher price. You're confusing the above with what's in the Bloomberg piece, and that relates to there being a low amount of some issues available for them to buy. Nothing you can do to spook people to sell these, they are not many issues in the market in the first place. I can't make it much simpler than that, hopefully you now understand.
  8. Jebus... No, there is no "new supply" - there is just a lot more sellers looking to unload at a lower price. If the central bank came along, without any alert which may spook bond holders, it could buy up the same bonds - just it will be at a higher price. But this in itself is not a problem as it's one of the goals of the program; to manipulate the yield cover by buying up specific bonds. I think you've read that bond supply issue piece and came up with a thoery in your head. The supply issue with ECB relates to the fact they only have a remit to buy specific types of bonds, so naturally the number of issues available to purchase is going to start to run dry. This is why they are saying about potentially extending the types of securities they are allowed to purchase. It's all spelt out in the article.
  9. No-one said there can't be a supply shortage of certain types of bonds You said talk of raising rates were designed to "shake" bonds into circulation, which is pure bonkers. It would have the opposite effect to what is desired by the QE program. Cool theory though.
  10. You being one of them it seems The ECB may start to run low on eligible bonds to buy, but they may just extend the remit. Anyway, not sure how that relates to the FED or BoE talking about tightening.
  11. This makes no sense. There's always a supply of bonds available to purchase in the markets, if you're prepared to pay the market price for them. Why would a central bank need to spook them with the threat of higher rates? They could just purchase the bonds at their market price to lower the yield. Spooking them would have the opposite effect.
  12. Before, and also before any tax. Then again, you can also get quite a bit of cash back on certain direct debits on top of the interest.
  13. 8% (virtually) risk free return is nothing to sniff at! For a £100 return you must have only had £1250 in there, unless my terrible maths has let me down again. Or, did it have a low balance limit? Plonk £40k into a couple of 123 accounts and you'll nearly have that £100 each month
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