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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. The old adage that it starts off hard for a first time buyer and gets easier is long gone in a low inflation economy. This is a legacy from the days of high wage inflation when a mortgage started off hard and got easier five or six years down the line. In a low inflation economy it starts off hard and doesn't get easier until the end of the mortgage. The break point comes that much later. It means it's harder for the FTBs of today to trade up meaning the market becomes slower and slower until eventually it drops. You need FTBs to come in at the bottom of the market to keep the rest of it movin
  2. People have taken out fixed rate deals. Those that took fixed rate deals in August 2005 will have a shock this August when they come off it and are subject to tracker mortgages.
  3. The BBC rang me and asked me to take part in this discussion. I bottled it at the last minute.
  4. Had to respond to this purely for the fact that I have the St Pirran as my avatar
  5. I have a friend who works in council tax banding in Cardiff. He says the amount of flats being built are insane and that there are literally not enough people in Cardiff to live in them. They are bought by BTL and Buy to Sit investors and then stay empty. Because there is this demand there though they keep getting built. When there is a downturn then these things will be worth nothing.
  6. You need a small amount of inflation in the economy to create economic growth. If inflation was negative you would end up with deflation. So the target for inflation is positive. The government and the BOE don't really have a lot of weight in what happens when it comes to money supply. It really lies with the global economy and the availabilty of money supply. The vast swathes of cheap money in the global economy has largely been due to the Asian carry trade. Now that is coming to an end then this money will dry up. If the money supply isn't there then people can't get mortgages and if they c
  7. Oh wait! I thought of something I wanted to say after all...............nope it's gone.
  8. I have nothing to add to the discussion. I simply have a Cornish flag as my avatar and so felt the need to write something. Carry on. Nothing to see here.
  9. They're all currently unserviceable. Lack of funds to keep them maintained. You'll have to make do with a Ford Transit like the rest of the Army.
  10. I don’t know exactly the reasoning behind the cuts but I should imagine it is because the government has just committed substantial resources to the Navy. The replacement for the nuclear deterrent, two American sized nuclear aircraft carriers (which are so large they can not fit in any of the existing dockyards) and the Type 45 destroyers should be coming into service soon. It is all capability that costs money. I have a more interesting theory and it is somewhat sinister. The Navy does not need three dockyards. It only needs one, two at the most. These frigates are Devonport based which is ow
  11. Yes and they might find the links to the Morgan Stanley report which says that although these are factors driving house prices up, their effect has been greatly exaggerated. There is no way that they can solely account for the circa 300% house price inflation in the last 10 years. The lion's share is due to a speculative bubble. Or they might find the links providing evidence that the high street banks have quietly been told to price in a 40% drop in house prices. Or the reports illustrating that the level of First Time Buyers (critical to a stable market) are the lowest since records began, e
  12. There was a bit on the Simpsons this week about asset bubble crashes. Bart had bought shares in a dot com company and then lost the lot. He proclaimed that "Nobody told me bubbles could burst". I wondered if they would be doing a US housing bubble burst special. If I could be bothered I'd stick it on YouTube somehow.
  13. I remember the first one. It was Chantelle. A couple of bullying campaign groups picked up on it and used it to create an awareness. Bullying in the workplace is a fact of life and there is no point in trying to deny that it happens. The good thing is that these days there is a greater awareness of the issues. My organisation has procedures in place to deal with it. The hardest thing is that bullies appear to achieve results on the surface whereas they are extremely destructive to an organisation. Why is this thread in the 'Main discussion on house prices' exactly?
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