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Posts posted by MrXxx

  1. :-))))...it now appears on this forum that unless you have a HPC mentality (and follow the 'gospel'), and 'dare' to question the 'faith' (provide an opinion that is the opposite) you are a troll...so much for democracy and having an open mind eh?!

    In regards to your question CBWB 'what was the cause of house prices dropping 20% in 2008 when the BoE rate was 4.5%?'....Firstly, its not what the BoE rate is per se...its the differential between this and the mortgage rates at the time (and their availability)....what were the mortgage rate then and now?...are they really that much different?...Also, from what I can see looking across the UK, this 20% drop was very much a southern effect, as prices 'up-North' have moved very little from 2004-2005 prices to the current day.

  2. Couple of thoughts that seems to link some of the above together....I have always fancied building my own ecohouse but as somebody mentioned, you see the psychos on Grand Designs...they throw all of their money into their dream house, take on more debt as it goes over budget and then have a 'unique' house that would be more difficult to sell for them (or their offspring)...I am also based on the London/Essex border and see people investing £400k on a three bed house that they could buy 'up North' for £100-150k..

    ...so the point?....It seems that we as a nation have become so obsessed with property that we spend all of our money on it and the 'cost' of enjoying life elsewhere....for example people buying a £400k property could go Northwards, save £250k, retire early and enjoy their leisure time (that they will never get again due to humans not being immortal) rather than working like dogs and passing their wealth onto their sprogs....this seems so obvious to me....or am I missing something?!

  3. Yes Bloo Loo...the props...an oft mentioned factor used to explain why somebodies mechanisms didn't result in their predicted HPC...but do we really know for sure that 'The props' were the cause?....could sentiment (or peoples 'stupidity') be a greater factor or the real reason?...that said, I am sure 'The probs' haven't helped....but where from here?....will we just continue trundling along, the market stagnating and the correction being when wages/personal weath catches up with current prices?

    On another matter and slightly off topic, would be to have a regional round-up of how prices have changed over the years based on local knowledge (and perhaps how locals believe they will go in the next few years)...I am based on the London/Essex border and prices seem to have levelled off, more properties in the surrounding streets have For Sale boards, and I think prices will just sit still.

  4. You can understand why the banks are pushing credit cards...however you spend/pay up its a win/win....shops have to pay for account/machine, shops pay a fixed sum per transaction and if the buyer clear their account every month the banks get a return of anything from 16-30% usually....and those that do pay up on a regular basis occasionally forget like Venger did!....god that 'hurt' when they catch you like that :-)))

  5. No justification at all, just my sentiments...and we all know what that can do!....that said, lots of people have posted on here with their predictions of a HPC and justified them with mechanisms...in fact, some have said a HPC is 'just around the corner'/imminent....for the last x number of years!

  6. Si1, you could say the same for all the HPCers opinions on here!......The difference is (at the moment) one group appears to be correct and the other (for whatever reason) appears not to be......as for me, I would love for a HPC as I am renting and have no desire to 'blow' £xK overnight due to a correction, that said, I am wondering whether it will ever happen...to be honest I don't think it will be a big (40+%) crash, more a mild correction (10-20%) over a number of years.

  7. So Irrational actor,

    you can continue as you are OR you can do something about it....just remember 1. Change takes effort, 2. Change requires risk and 3 Change is a sign of an individual (not one of the masses)...see how the masses are fairing at the moment and decide if that what you want for the rest of your (limited....we only have about 70-80 years) life.

  8. Boris Johnson heading the house building policy...oh well, that means a lot more affordable homes (what a joke!) built in the rest of the country by developers as part of the planning permission conditions....well, that or he will 'evict' people in social housing out of London so that they don't get to live 'cheek by jowl' in those affordable houses alongside punters paying the full price!.....they will be making him leader of the party next (God forbid!)

  9. Get the OFT involved?...nonsense!.....let people pay what they want to pay (if they are stupid enough), just don't use my taxes to bail out the banks who are stupid enough to loan to the fools AND use my taxes to encourage/aid the idiots to buy....basically a true 'free market economy'....and natural HPC cycles

  10. Hi Bruce,

    I agree to a certain extend but if prices get too high how will they then 'explore' a greater extent of the market?...High prices means that those with reasonably high salaries can afford them BUT these are only a small percentage of the market and once the banks have their custom how do they grow their business?...They (the banks) do not want to stay 'stagnant' with these borrowers for the next 25-30 years, if given the opportunity they want those on a lower level salary.....MMR has in fact compounded this issue making it even more difficult for those on the lower level salaries to get a mortgage, and so at some stage the banks will want the prices to drop to a lower level.

    p.s...I have just realised my reply isn't in words of one syllable :-)))

  11. Hi Bear,

    I think (as always) you will get a variety of opinions on here...and most of them are pretty 'sound', especially the 'putting it in paperwork' that people such as Venger have suggested...I am sure your wife/partner is a lovely person BUT I have seen similar situations that soured and then everyones loyalties are then to other groups of people (or themselves) and not those that they were initially close to.

    In regard to your concern about the loss, I know where you are 'coming from'...I would feel pretty choked myself if I lost say £100k overnight on the property gamble AND I don't think it would be the financial loss per se, it would just hurt my pride...SO my solution/thought:-

    Why can you not buy a smaller place, say a 2 or 3 bed place?...the kids can share a room whilst they are young, as they get older and personal circumstance change (i.e. housing market, job market etc) you could even let one of them have 'The office' as a bedroom....Going along this route means that if we do have a HPC your 'losses' will be limited/lowered, you will still be in a position at a later date to possibly borrow the remaining sum from parents (if its still available) to move up to a larger property when you know what the market is doing AND in the mean time you are still using the 'wasted' rent money to good use rather than giving it to your landlady.

    Remember, I don't know what size place you are renting at the moment (say 4 bed?), but even if you bought a smaller place than that you would still be a happier family as you would feel more secure.....just a thought!

  12. Hi All,

    perhaps I am looking at it too simplistically (likely!) or its just 'wishful thinking', but I think the 'lemon' has just about been squeezed until the pips are coming out...2 plus property owners cannot move on up as their fixed rates have expired and/or they cannot get new deals good enough (due to initially overstretching on low rates), FTB cannot buy due to the high prices and their relationship with MMR, foreign buyers have now 'moved on to greener pastures', the expert BTLers are now not getting a decent return from buying into the inflated...which leaves the amateur/'pension' BTLers who are now being (or about to be) frightened by the threats of legislation...

    ...the latter (who have previously bought since 2010) may now start to 'dump' their BTLs now whilst they can....and then the 'wheels will be set in motion'..thoughts/opinions?

  13. Having watched the whole situation in the UK failing to improve (despite what we are told by the powers that be) over the last 10 years in the UK I have questioned 'Do I really need to stay in the UK and/or buy a house here'

    With this in mind (and knowing we have a variety of opinions from those who have stayed in the UK or moved overseas) I would like peoples opinions on the subject i.e. are things really better in another country. If appreciate that anybody who comments will have biases and it is sometimes difficult to be honest when you have mad a mistake (or look on the bright side) but can people focus on:-

    Quality of personal day-to-day life (i.e expenses, housing, work/life balance)

    Quality of sociological life (i.e liberty, politics, society)

    Age stage and considerations (i.e considerations/facilities for each life stage such as mid-age, retirement etc)

    Be interesting to get others opinions as against my own which are based on living/working in Germany between 2004-2008. I lived in a small town in the north and found the following:-

    Quality of day-to-day = about a third cheaper than UK for most things (i.e I had about 30% more buying power), housing was of good quality and secure/well managed, work/life balance? people were expected to work efficiently but also expected to 'Have a life'.

    Sociological = Quite bureaucratic, didn't really know about politics, people on the whole seemed to expect societal niceties/expected behaviour and conduct.

    Age stage = I had private health plan but from what I could see their health system was efficient, social benefits were available but not an 'easy ride'.

    Your thoughts/experiences?

  14. Agree Bland unsight,

    Barretts have not 'shelled out' £25k, as you highlighted above they created it from 'thin air' which means they are in a win-win situation...a) market goes nowhere (or down) in 10 years and they get £25k, B) market goes up and they get 25% of house value or c) Buyer defaults and they put £25k (that they didn't have) against their taxes (that they did)...brilliant business acumen!.....this shows beautifully what a sham shared ownership is (even more so as they also get partial rent!) and HTB is...

    ....you can understand (and should question) why our political elite are promoting these methods of house purchase as an affordable way to 'get onto the property ladder ' (what nonsense!)....a far better scam than letting people 'buy' a house OR even better than 'buying' a leasehold flat!

  15. Couple of things come to mind:-

    1. There is no such thing as a 'free lunch'...interest free credit?....Why should the buyer expect Barretts not to have at least their £25k back?...after all you wouldn't put £25k in the bank for 10 years and expect no return would you?

    2. A previous poster mentioned about this being the biggest purchase somebody makes in their lifetime YET The buyer thinks NOW she has overpaid but didn't question it at the time...Do they go and buy anything else at the first price they see before shopping around? ...and...the buyer was 'gambling' £25k on property prices going up...Would they walk into a betting shop and put £25k on a horse?..as this is in essence what they have done...The govt talks about 'educating' the masses in regard to personal finance...If they were to use this 'gambling' scenario above, even the simplest of people could understand it!

    3. If the buyer has no real investment in the property they could (should) play 'hard ball' with Barrets knowing that Barretts in essence have not lost anything AND if the buyer was to default the BS would get first call on monies...and they should be as 'open' as this so Barretts are in no doubt and will negotiate sensibly.....if 'no joy' just walk away and let Barretts take the hit.

    Finally, 3 above highlights the weakness HTB has now introduced into the system...not only can Barretts create extra profits by increasing value above market BUT the loan (via the BS) is covered by the tax payer...so neither builder or BS are in a position of loss...this risk has been transferred to the tax payer...obscene!

  16. Whilst I agree with Venger above (that the 'laws' introduced appear to be toothless/ineffective), I think Hackney has 'hit it on the head'...

    ....its the effect that these political murmurings with have on the sentiment of amateur BTL landlords...with increased 'apparent' added complexity to being a landlord AND a 'potential' reduction in BTL's ability to be a pension pot/licence to print money, some may realise/think that its not such a good idea and decide to sell-up their BTL 'empires'...thus increased supply with fewer buyers (as the word will get around the potential BTLers at dinner parties/down the pub) may lead to reduction and/or a 'run for the exit'?

    Also agree with Moedo...lots of amateur BTL landlords (especially the ones that don't use agents) are unaware of the law regarding safety/checks/legal requirements of letting properties...get a few more prosecutions in the media...a few more laws/requirements requiring expense/time and this may act as a deterrent for the amateurs....as for the professional, it will make little difference as they are 'set-up' for these and know how (where necessary) to get around them.

    and as for Boris's landlord scheme...voluntary so it = worthless/toothless.

  17. Scenario=

    Fact=HA is paid marker value for property by Govt, basically compulsory purchase.

    HA then builds more houses (cheaply), puts 'good' (solvent/mortgageable) tenants in them and encourages them to buy.

    HA has then in essence become a 'for profit' property builder!

    Perhaps I have got this completely but what do others think?

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