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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by bear.getting.old

  1. 6 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

    We've had time to crush the curve twice over. China/Greece/Germany/New Zealand et al. have all gone back to work.

    South Korea and Taiwan never stopped working!

    Instead, Johnson and Cummings borked the PPE; borked the flight cancelations and border closures; borked the test and trace; borked the mandatory quarantine; borked the events cancelations; borked the ventilators; borked the social distancing measures on public transport; borked the care homes; borked the Lockdown. I suspect they are about to commit another monumental bork by lifting the Lockdown too soon.

    I agree with you partly. but the UK is not the sort of place that you can tell people to stay in your homes. The only way to contain this virus effectively is a chinese style miltary lockdown, and you know how that would go down here. Plus how do you effectively lockdown successfully and keep everyone working like Korea

  2. 58 minutes ago, Social Justice League said:

    The man did what any other normal person would have done for his child and wife. I would have done the same EVERY time. And been proud of my actions. He is a government worker so therefore a keyworker and exempt from lockdown restrictions anyway. Not that he broke any particularly having been in isolation all the time.

  3. On 02/05/2020 at 14:27, Belfast Boy said:

    For the majority of the UK - people under 50 have no real experience of what a proper house price crash is. I was studying in England 30 years ago. That was the last proper crash. I remember my friends telling me how much their properties had fallen in price.

    Roll on to 2007 and I decided to sell my house in Northern Ireland. I was shocked at the valuation and it was 'sale agreed' at 10% above asking price. Remembering what my friends in England told me in the early 90's - I typed 'house price crash' into google. What I found on this website both scared and fascinated me. The sale completed and I decided to become an STR for a few years just to see what happened. The Northern Ireland housing market crashed 56.5% in real terms in just over 5 years. In that time I met my wife and she already had a house. So my interest in the housing market became mostly academic.

    The Northern Ireland housing market stalled in early 2007. House prices remained high for all of 2007 even though sales volumes collapsed. There must have been transactions in the system that still completed at high prices. Before the market ran out of road and fell off a cliff in 2008.

    I am suggesting to people who read the Northern Ireland section of the forum that they rent for 1 year. There is little risk that house prices will go up in that period of time. I understand the arguments that it might become more difficult to borrow. If everyone is having the same difficulties then house prices will have to come down to what people can afford to pay.

    I am once again fascinated (and a little scared for different reasons) to see what happens next.

    I have a feeling that people are soon going to have a lot more to worry about than house prices. 

    Interesting story Belfast Boy. You did very well selling up. If you study the crash of the late 80s/90s NI seemed to crash with rest of UK, but in 2008 - the crash seemed to mirror the crash in Dublin. Do you think Belfast will mirror London or Dublin in this crash? Prices in NI are too expensive yet again, I was going to buy quite a few times but held off due to Brexit, as Ireland was probably going to suffer from a no deal possibly hitting Dublin prices and a knock on effect on Belfast houses.

  4. 20 minutes ago, spyguy said:

    Stop thinking baout absolute prices.

    London prices fell below 3x earnings in 1995.

    Before that,they were expensive at 6x.

    Today, London stands at 15x earnings.

    Its insane, considering the challenges that London now faces and the slushing jobs leaving London.

    You also have to conside that GE19 has shifted the Tory vote about 80 miles North.

    London is now a city of Labour voters, with no sign of a Labour GE win for ~10 years.

    It's down to immigration. The Brits hve moved out of London to the outer home counties. Labour voting immigrants moved in. Paradise for Diane Abbot and Stormzy loving Dawn

  5. On 04/05/2020 at 10:14, Bruce Banner said:

    Lol... net worth massively reduced but no problem, negative equity if mortgage more than £5, but no problem :rolleyes:.

    Brexit will more than decimate house prices.... probably 3 or 4 times over.


    COVID 19 - Will you shut up and stop posting nonsense about Brexit! Brexit at worst case projection would see only a slight hit to the economy, at best case massive growth. Brexit is a tiny blip compared to COVID19,. COVID 19 has already and will cause huge damage to the economy and house prices. I know you would desperately love to be proved right in your unhealthy brexit obsession, but sadly for you it is now totally irrelevant and more so since COVID 19. Nobody cares or interested apart from remoaners who need to get over it.

  6. 1 hour ago, jonb2 said:

    Can you imagine what the outcome of WW2 would have been under Johnson and Trump, instead of Churchill and Roosevelt ?

    Churchill didn't spend a month off having possibly died from a virus for a start. Its not just our leaders, it seems that our entire government and civil servants are very unorganised and unable/refuse to deal with anything like this. I'm surprised that they managed to get those big hospitals built, it was only due to the army that it got done. Civil servants wouldn't have managed it. I'm talking about there being no restrictions on entry to the country by sea, plane etc. There are illegal immigrants still arriving from France by boat during all this and the government couldn't care less, neither do the media. They are entering with covid 19

  7. Just a bit of analysis from my amateur studying over this week, Gold led the fall in gold miner shares in March, and the recovery of the past few weeks, but now miner shares have way outperformed gold itself. Does this tell you the miners have been overbought? With the recovery in the FTSE this last week is gold overbought? I see the case for gold but now could be going in too high...

  8. 13 hours ago, crumblingcon said:

    Yep, end of 2019 we were just in the early stages of ending austerity, if you can call it ending. Going on the logic of the Tories having to introduce austerity after getting rid of yet another over spending Labour party, what will they do once this is all over?

    If we thought it was tough before then this is going to be a killer once cutbacks start

    We never had austerity! If they had have cut spending anything like as much as they should have done to pay back the 2008 debt then it would have been, but they didn't! Austerity was a fallecy, and mainly spoken about by Labour socialists. They managed to dent the defecit but not the debt much. This all pales into nothing compared with the debt that has been racked up this time. It's never been done before for any big disease eg Spanish flu, ridiculous to shut down the world.

  9. On 20/04/2020 at 20:16, Dorkins said:

    Thanks, it's always good to hear these old anecdotes, they help to counteract the bias the human brain has of assuming that the way things are right now is fixed forever and couldn't possibly be otherwise. Asset price to wage ratios are very high right now, people assume that this is normal and will be forever thus but this is not true.

    I'll give you one. In 1996 I bought a repo which had been empty a year and had a boarded up window. No demand for it at all it seemed and I wondered if I was mad to buy it, good area though. Buying property in the early to mid 90s seemed like a thing you didn't do... Contrast that with the demand when I sold it many years later I had 8 viewings in 1 day. Multiple offers. It's sentiment. Sentiment could go that way to early 90s again.

  10. On 17/04/2020 at 11:24, micawber said:

    But in reality, £400K is just fiat. Measured in gold, UK house prices are the same as 1995 and 1972 (roughly):


    Of course wages are just fiat too!

    Looking at the chart, the current level is because the house prices are falling since 2015 ish, gold is now rising and also the £ falling making gold look even better. Houses already look cheap or gold is already at peak. Take your pick?

  11. On 15/04/2020 at 12:11, Si1 said:

    Liverpool will just suffer for it through higher public debt and taxes. As they have always done. And they'll blame the Tories, bankers etc.

    Council tax in Liverpool actually is not too bad compared to other councils like Sheffield. I've been comparing them. But Liverpool is getting better though there is still a element of its own little world detached from the rest of England. Heck, some scousers even went over to Ireland in 1916 to join the IRA against the English and they are still proud of that history.

  12. On 18/04/2020 at 13:24, spacedin said:

    If only younger people got such a good deal. 

    "Younger" people get deals that not so young people get, like the Lifetime ISA and other free government cash bribes to buy overinflated property. Plenty of 40+ people who are FTB's, or out of the market. I don't see why just because you are not a FTB but you don't own a house you get F all help from government. You may have had to sell due to divorce or anything and did not benefit from any previous house ownership, which may have been only a small time in your life.

  13. 17 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

    Lovely. You can keep us all informed as to how it feels like to have bought at the peak. 

    That isn't very nice. Well we'll see won't we. If it was not already the cheapest area in the country I would have pulled out. Pulling out would have cost about 1k in solicitors fees, survey fees etc wasted time and journeys and the possibility of not finding anything like it for this money if it doesn't crash. If we have a 40% price crash nationwide I'd loose 25K. But I'd guess the SE will fall the most as its the most overvalued. If this mother of crashes really does happen then I could buy back in the SE for 120K less than now (based on a 300K house falling 40%)

  14. Yes but the only buyer was a council who paid over the odds because they took a loan out. Nobody else would buy it to develop it, only a council taking a risk. Is there any moral hazard, no I'd say because they will be bailed out with our money when the scheme and council go bust, just like the NHS is getting all its debt written off. There is nothing more inefficient and wasteful than the state, you either fight it or get a job as a civil servant, and join the gravy train.

  15. 10 hours ago, interestrateripoff said:


    The council will fund the development by borrowing the initial sum from the Public Works Loans Board and then repaying the cash from rental income and the eventual sale of some of the land.

    Council leader Graham Morgan said: "We are now in a position to be able to bring forward the retail development which our residents need, and which we promised.

    Sounds a bargain for 43m

    Have you been to Kirkby? It's a frigging dump! Never seen a town more depressing even Coventry seems nice compared to that

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