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bear.getting.old

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Posts posted by bear.getting.old

  1. 5 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

    It's not really the actual damage that counts. It's peoples perception of what is going on.

    The worst thing is that if Trump really does get a second term, I think the chance that this may escalate, or some other crisis might tip the US into chaos increases dramatically. Trump is hardly a steady hand on the tiller. And if the US goes into meltdown the rest of the world will follow it.

    If Trump does not get in then it makes a UK trade deal with the US less likely, so the UK suffers more. Either way you are looking at it its not looking good for UK plc post C19

  2. 1 hour ago, Timm said:

    I'm not a guru!

    But yes, I am very bearish on nominal house prices at the moment (short to medium-short term), and exceptionally bearish on real house prices in the (medium to long term) future. I expect a sharp drop in nominal prices (which I think has already started), followed by rapid inflation that (might) hide absolutely enormous nominal falls. I am also convinced that the top in real prices is behind us.

    I think those things are a given. I have no idea how big the fall will be in % terms (let alone real/nominal), just that it will change the game for many. I have no idea when inflation will start to hide the nominal falls, just that it will be before most bears want it to be. As a very wise poster once said to me: "Don't chase the bottom. Watch the inflection, and once it turns, panic."

    That is a lie. What they actually said was: "Don't chase the bottom / top. Watch the inflection, and once it turns back, buy / sell. You don't want to be the ultimate winner, you just want to be on the right side of the curve.."  But I prefer my version. If anybody out there does not know what an inflection point is, it's worth looking up.

    So, in my worthless opinion, the questions are:

    1. Will there be nominal falls? I don't know. I'm guessing there will, and that they will be soon and scary.

    2. Will there be deliberate inflation? I don't know. I'm guessing there will.

    3. Will the inflation mask all nominal falls? I don't know. I think it will, but that it will take a couple of quarters.

    4. If you have savings, when is the best time to get in? I don't know. But I'm guessing not now!

     

    New highs in nominal terms?

    Hmm. Yes, but as to when, I literally have no idea at all.

    And anyway, that has more to do with the nature of fiat money than it does with the value of a home.

     

    This is where it gets confusing because your money in the bank is also being inflated away. We need nominal falls in housing really.

  3. 11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    Wanted or being given ?

    That's down about 50% nominally and about 60%+ in real terms.

    OK ?  Happy ?

    image.png.6fc8497477cb9b331d2fed34e99a54a9.png

     

    NI was a crazy bubble in 2007...Londistan is MUCH worse

     

    The NI bubble and popping of it was related to the bubble in Dublin. Unlike in 89. This time NI hasn't recovered like Dublin has.

  4. I saw this on the daily mail. I would have commented but I can't be arsed to set up an account. To me this is overstepping her role as Radio 1 DJ. To be off work because she was upset would be a breach of employment in most companies. I couldn't phone up HR and say sorry can't come in because I'm upset about the death of a man in the USA, and that would be if I was black or white.

    She does not even know the man! Time off work???

    What about all the white men who are killed by police.? This is not just a race issue, it shouldn't be.

    I like Clara. She is a good DJ but she has overstepped the mark by going on air and getting all upset about it. Almost like she is using the mans death to push her own agenda

     

    Quite ridiculous.  But thats the BBC for you

     

     

  5. On 31/05/2020 at 19:42, gruffydd said:

    An estate agent told me the price level was already 10-20% down on asking price... and this is with furlough and the rest of the cash hurled at the economy by Sunak. What happens when mass redundancies kick in at the end of the summer? Pretty obvious isn't it. 

    In my experience, 'asking' prices are just that. They can ask but they won't get. When I was hunting Jan/Feb, 99% of houses were 20-30% above the land registry figure that they should have been, taking the previous sale prices adjusted for the land registry figures of current value. Agents are just putting them on for extra above and hoping they will get it. Not any more. This doesn't always work, as the previous price paid could have been over the odds, ie new build or 2007 prices, but more fool them. That is not our problem. But its harder to bat the price down.

    I went in chain free offered 8k below asking. Woman seller rejected the offer, she wanted me to come up 3K she wouldn't accept less. I walked away. Bet she wishes she wasn't so greedy now. House must still be sitting empty.

  6. 2 hours ago, pig said:

    Well I guess Its pretty hilarious you think this broken record whining about the Guardian is more interesting than the unprecedented mess BJ and DC got themselves into :)

    There is no mess. It's the usual shit stirring in the fantasy world of the Guardian, but that's irrelevant as it is a socialist bog roll paper that nobody normal takes seriously. I really hope that the Corona recession will wipe out this so called newspaper. Plus it's about time, HPC members started looking at house prices, as the whole forum has gone completely off topic and is starting to resemble the Labour party conference.

  7. 17 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

    i dont really get all the anger towards the payment. My best guess is there is a lot of angry people on the doll who dont feel its fair that the worthwhile in society are getting bailed out?

    i mean they were going to print plenty of money either way, and rack up debt either way, so might as well support the economy in the short term.

    i tend to think its more the unemployed feeling annoyed, than the cash rich (who are hoping to pick up cheap property).

    I do wonder how many people are on HPC not because they ever have any hope of buying a house (unemployed) but instead as a form of jealousy?  

    i came to HPC as an incredibly hard working person, angry that all the hard work would not mean a suitable house for me to live in without extreme sacrifice, but now years later having learnt a lot from HPC, and made plenty of money directly due to HPC, i did manage to buy a house.

    it was clear since 2013 that the government would always bail out the feckless. so hop on board that gravy train (but be hedged).

    The furlough scheme in hindsight was obvious.

    never pays to be workshy. 

    As someone who has 'fallen out of the net' because I have too much capital I can't claim a penny and to see so many people on a long holiday on 80 - 100% pay to sit at home, I find very annoying. I am applying for jobs but there aren't many out there. You would think from media coverage that there are loads of key worker type jobs, healthcare, supermarkets etc but not when I look. So I dismay as I see my savings disappearing every month. I worked hard to build all that up. I feel Ishouldn't have bothered and spent the lot on nice living instead.

  8. It's great to see you back here KB. Unfortunately as you probably realise, the forum has been taken over by socialists and leftie Labour supporters. They also seem to have an issue with brexit  ( still can't accept the result even 4 years on) so much of the sensible discussion and debate about HP's has been replaced with futile bitching about brexit. They are also in denial about the massive Tory win. I'm no fan of the socialist lockdown, furlough, spunking unlimited tax payers cash on the NHS and phoney 'tough on immigration' policies of this government but they at least are a damn sight better than the alternative parties.

    Back to house prices you could well be right, depends on the numbers of jobs lost when the economy is actually fully open and it goes from being a C19 problem to an actual recession recession as businesses go to the wall/cut costs. It will take a lot of convincing some people that prices have fallen, for example was speaking to someone in St Albans the other day who thought it will never fall there, too popular outside London

     

  9. 5 hours ago, Crowdedmarket said:

    Bojo is many things, but a deal maker he CERTAINLY is. I personally dislike him, I'm neutral on Brexit, his mishandling of Cummings/Covid is beyond reprehensible, but I have EVERY confidence he will do deals around the world.

    That's why, against everyones predictions, he and his mate Dom, will win the next election.

    Everyones predictions? Only sad lefties. Who still can't accept they lost and now want to get behind another Cameron, yeah you couldn't make it up.

  10. Companies who have no less business in because people have to pay them eg.... BT, ISPs, Water, Gas Electric etc, Banks even... all are operating on reduced customer service on the phone, in some cases zero customer service, branches still closed reduced opneing hours etc...... have costs down wages bill down.... Now providing less service for the same revenue. Profit up. These companies think the lockdown suits them down to the ground  employees of the books on furlough scheme. They can close offices too. Less rent... This government have dropped a clanger, with this stupid scheme and lockdown.

  11. I would have done in his shoes. You have a journey to do eventually down south and you don't feel fit enough yet vision blurry. So you drive to a park as a test run. All within rules. Not that he had to follow them anyway because he is a keyworker trying to get back to work.

     

    This really is such a pathetic witch hunt. Time to move on. What a non story. Go and watch house prices go down.

  12. 26 minutes ago, pig said:

    Part of the problem here - going by my conversations anyway - is a lot of people have been really really patient as they've gone through their personal difficulties generously thinking 'ok its a difficult situation all governments are expected to make mistakes' .

    In the blink of an eye the pent up emotion has flipped to ' you have got to be ****** kidding me this is taking the ****!!!'

    But he didn't take the piss. The only people who think this think that he want for a day out at a castle or drove up to spread the virus and untruths such as that, because they have been got at by the MS biased media. It is not their fault they have been brainwashed because quite a lot of people still trust that the BBC reports accurately!

  13. 54 minutes ago, Bruce Banner said:

    We're talking about Cummings, not anyone else. 

    Why are you brexiteers so confrontational?

    Why are you remoaners so dillusional? We all know that this all about revenge for Cummings being a vote leave man because you still cannot accept the referendum result from 4 years ago. That's why you don't want to talk about the Ian caught with his pants down 3 times. The BBC/ITV/SKY/CH4 are all remainer organisations some in reciept of EU bribe money, so they have stirred up the nation with their biased news.

  14. 11 hours ago, longgone said:

    furlough is against human rights. why should those who had a job get 2.5k a month that no longer have a job so are the same status as someone who never had a job to begin with. 

    should of been less and and everyone should have received something.  

    Correct. I see people sitting at home doing nothing no job for 2.5K. Whereas I have no job and cannnot claim a penny

  15. Personally and this is a real putting money where my mouth is.... If I had been buying a 250K house in the south east of England I would have pulled out due to the C19, to wait. But seeing as the house was a lot cheaper in the north, I figured any fall would have been small anyway and less likely. I'm not convinced about this insane reaction to a disease that even now, has killed so little people who were not already ill. Many people will die due to the lockdown.... not be saved by it. People not going to doctors dentists etc. No cancer screening, ops cancelled, really stupid.

  16. On 19/05/2020 at 16:33, Warlord said:

    The professor in the video says the government becomes authoritarian and will ban cash/steal deposits. This is very concerning to me if the BoE do go ahead I will be forced to put my cash into physical gold or silver and HIDE it from the criminals.. which I should be doing anyway.

     

     

    You could always buy a house. Buying gold.... doesn't the inland revenue get informed by law when you buy gold? So they will still steal it from you? Regards charges from banks to keep money in there, most countries around the world have banking with a fee. It's mainly a UK thing to have 'free' banking.

  17. 7 minutes ago, sammersmith said:

    I watched the SDL auction today too as i was interested in how much this property would go for 

    https://www.sdlauctions.co.uk/property/25226/terraced-house-for-auction-salford/

    It was guided at 178K and went for 190k + auction fee of 4.8% therefore = £199,120

    What i don't understand is that this house was for sale on the open market in March through an agent for £195k. The history shows this and I remember the house coming up. They couldn't sell so put in an auction at the last minute (probs why it's lot 64A). 

    monton_auction.png.24c16f8188028441a04dacd674895213.png

    Who would buy this house at auction but turn it down on the open market? Why would they pay over what it was offered (including fees and likely offer under asking) for originally? 

    People who don't do their homework or people who get caught up in the bidding because somebody else was bidding against them not wanting to be outdone.

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